Aug 21, 25sim 93
873
20(H)75
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10LV
MIN
32-9
8797
LV
27-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Minnesota Lynx, 97–87.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Natisha Hiedeman
G · #2
25.5Game score
22
Pts
6
Reb
5
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
30.1Game score
31
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN32-9
8797
LV27-14
MIN32-9LV27-14
MIN
32-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 24 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 30 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | |
| 28 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| 29 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -12 | |
| 28 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| Team | 87 | 28 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 12 | ||
| DNP: D. Carrington | ||||||||
LV
27-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 12 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 35 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +13 | |
| 34 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | |
| 33 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 25 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| 19 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6 | |
| Team | 97 | 29 | 25 | 7 | 4 | 11 | ||
| DNP: M. Gustafson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
54
FG %
55
25
Ast
25
Season series
MIN wins series 3-1
Jun 18LV62@MIN76
LV62@MIN76Jul 25LV78@MIN109
LV78@MIN109Aug 2MIN111@LV58
MIN111@LV58Sep 5MIN87@LV97today
MIN87@LV97todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:35
MINN. Hiedeman
GGame leader · 28 min
22 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 35 min30+ point game
31 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
LV beat MIN 97-87. A. Wilson paced them with 31 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 20 REB · 16 AST
GS 39
Bench(6)
29 PTS · 8 REB · 9 AST
GS 33
LVstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 19 REB · 19 AST
GS 69
Bench(4)
18 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV2nd Quarter · 1:05 · 42-42
+10pp→ 48% WP
Courtney Williams · offensive foul
LV3rd Quarter · 7:48 · 49-52
+8pp→ 57% WP
Kierstan Bell · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chelsea Gray assists)
LV3rd Quarter · 2:35 · 59-63
+10pp→ 68% WP
Courtney Williams · misses 27-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 24 | 20 | 22 | 21 | 87 |
| LV | 26 | 21 | 23 | 27 | 97 |
Period scoring
MIN won 0 · LV won 4
24
26
Q1
Carleton 9
Wilson 10
20
21
Q2
McBride 7
Wilson 7
22
23
Q3
Hiedeman 7
Wilson 7
21
27
Q4
Hiedeman 11
Wilson 7
MIN
LV
Shooting comparison
MIN
LV
54%
36-67
FG
55%
38-69
41%
9-22
3PT
46%
11-24
55%
6-11
FT
91%
10-11
Play-by-play · 335 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 87·LV 97
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 87·LV 97
- Q4·17.7
Camryn Taylor defensive rebound
MIN 87·LV 97
- Q4·21.2
Jewell Loyd misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 87·LV 97
- Q4·40.2
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
MIN 87·LV 97
- Q4·43.5
Aaliyah Nye blocks Jaylyn Sherrod 's 5-foot driving layup
·
MIN 87·LV 97
- Q4·1:03
Jackie Young makes layup (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
MIN 87·LV 97
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:05
Jewell Loyd offensive rebound
MIN 87·LV 95
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:08
Aaliyah Nye misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 87·LV 95
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:18
Jewell Loyd enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
· ·
MIN 87·LV 95
- Q4·1:18
Aces Full timeout
MIN 87·LV 95
−1pp
- Q4·1:18
Maria Kliundikova personal foul
MIN 87·LV 95
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:18
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
·
MIN 87·LV 95
- Q4·1:20
Maria Kliundikova misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 87·LV 95
+4pp
- Q4·1:20
Maria Kliundikova makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 87·LV 95
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:20
NaLyssa Smith shooting foul
·
MIN 86·LV 95
−3pp
- Q4·1:29
Chelsea Gray makes 24-foot three point jumper (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
MIN 86·LV 95
+2pp
- Q4·1:42
Natisha Hiedeman makes 25-foot three pointer
MIN 86·LV 92
−2pp
- Q4·1:50
A'ja Wilson makes 11-foot two point shot
MIN 83·LV 92
+1pp
- Q4·2:09
Natisha Hiedeman makes free throw 3 of 3
MIN 83·LV 90
+2pp
- Q4·2:09
A'ja Wilson enters the game for Dana Evans
·
MIN 82·LV 90
- Q4·2:09
Natisha Hiedeman makes free throw 2 of 3
MIN 82·LV 90
−2pp
- Q4·2:09
Natisha Hiedeman makes free throw 1 of 3
MIN 81·LV 90
- Q4·2:09
NaLyssa Smith shooting foul
·
MIN 80·LV 90
−2pp
- Q4·2:20
Aaliyah Nye makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
·
MIN 80·LV 90
+3pp
- Q4·2:43
Maria Kliundikova makes layup (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
·
MIN 80·LV 87
−1pp
- Q4·2:52
Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound
MIN 78·LV 87
- Q4·2:55
Jackie Young misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIN 78·LV 87
−0.5pp
- Q4·3:15
Natisha Hiedeman makes 11-foot two point shot (Maria Kliundikova assists)
·
MIN 78·LV 87
−0.7pp
- Q4·3:27
Camryn Taylor enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
MIN 76·LV 87
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
LV
Home
36-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-69
54
FG %
55
9-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-24
6-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-11
25
Assists
25
12
Turnovers
11
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 12 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
- Olivia MilesMIN1.2± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
LV
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
49.7%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
34.9%
89.7
PPG
86.0
▶91.0
21.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6