Jul 15, 25sim 93
891
19(H)78
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10LV
LV
24-14
9181
WSH
16-21
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 91–81.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
30.4Game score
36
Pts
13
Reb
1
Ast
WSH · top performer
Kiki Iriafen
F · #44
18.2Game score
21
Pts
15
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV24-14
9181
WSH16-21
LV24-14WSH16-21
LV
24-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 19 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 23 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 33 | 36 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +5 | |
| 34 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +14 | |
| 31 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +4 | |
| 27 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 24 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +27 | |
| Team | 91 | 34 | 27 | 6 | 6 | 11 | ||
WSH
16-21
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 21 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | |
| 24 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -9 | |
| 27 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -14 | |
| 28 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 18 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 13 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 24 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| Team | 81 | 34 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 12 | ||
| DNP: J. Sheldon, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
52
FG %
43
27
Ast
21
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 24WSH72@LV75
WSH72@LV75Jun 27WSH94@LV83
WSH94@LV83Jul 10LV68@WSH70
LV68@WSH70Aug 23LV91@WSH81today
LV91@WSH81todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:31
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 33 min30+ point game
36 PTS · 13 REB · 1 AST
WSHK. Iriafen
FGame leader · 26 min
21 PTS · 15 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
LV beat WSH 91-81. A. Wilson led the way with 36 points and 13 rebounds. LV outscored the other side 25-13 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 29 REB · 21 AST
GS 57
Bench(6)
29 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
GS 24
WSHstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 27 REB · 12 AST
GS 46
Bench(5)
19 PTS · 7 REB · 9 AST
GS 16
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH3rd Quarter · 9:47 · 44-42
+8pp→ 34% WP
Sonia Citron · makes 26-foot three pointer
WSH3rd Quarter · 4:18 · 53-53
+8pp→ 51% WP
Jewell Loyd · shooting foul
LV3rd Quarter · 3:31 · 58-53
+8pp→ 75% WP
Dana Evans · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jewell Loyd assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 19 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 91 |
| WSH | 26 | 13 | 22 | 20 | 81 |
Period scoring
LV won 3 · WSH won 1
19
26
Q1
Wilson 6
Iriafen 9
25
13
Q2
Wilson 11
Iriafen 4
24
22
Q3
Wilson 10
Citron 6
23
20
Q4
Wilson 9
Iriafen 4
LV
WSH
Shooting comparison
LV
WSH
52%
34-65
FG
43%
28-65
50%
10-20
3PT
29%
4-14
87%
13-15
FT
75%
21-28
Play-by-play · 384 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 91·WSH 81
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 91·WSH 81
- Q4·17.3
Lucy Olsen makes 16-foot jumper (Jade Melbourne assists)
·
LV 91·WSH 81
- Q4·22.5
Mystics offensive team rebound
LV 91·WSH 79
- Q4·22.6
Madison Scott misses two point shot
LV 91·WSH 79
- Q4·27.2
Kierstan Bell bad pass (Madison Scott steals)
·
LV 91·WSH 79
- Q4·46.9
Emily Engstler makes driving layup
LV 91·WSH 79
- Q4·1:02
Aaliyah Nye turnover
LV 91·WSH 77
- Q4·1:02
Aaliyah Nye offensive foul
LV 91·WSH 77
- Q4·1:09
Madison Scott makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 91·WSH 77
- Q4·1:09
Madison Scott makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 91·WSH 76
- Q4·1:09
Megan Gustafson shooting foul
LV 91·WSH 75
- Q4·1:10
Jade Melbourne defensive rebound
LV 91·WSH 75
- Q4·1:13
Dana Evans misses driving layup
LV 91·WSH 75
- Q4·1:26
Lucy Olsen makes 14-foot jumper (Jade Melbourne assists)
·
LV 91·WSH 75
- Q4·1:31
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for A'ja Wilson
·
LV 91·WSH 73
- Q4·1:31
Megan Gustafson enters the game for Chelsea Gray
·
LV 91·WSH 73
- Q4·1:31
Kiah Stokes enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LV 91·WSH 73
- Q4·1:31
Kierstan Bell enters the game for Jackie Young
·
LV 91·WSH 73
- Q4·1:33
Mystics offensive team rebound
LV 91·WSH 73
- Q4·1:33
Emily Engstler misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 91·WSH 73
- Q4·1:44
A'ja Wilson makes layup (Chelsea Gray assists)
·
LV 91·WSH 73
- Q4·1:59
Emily Engstler makes 2-foot two point shot (Jade Melbourne assists)
·
LV 89·WSH 73
- Q4·2:11
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 89·WSH 71
- Q4·2:11
Jade Melbourne enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
·
LV 88·WSH 71
- Q4·2:11
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 88·WSH 71
- Q4·2:11
Madison Scott shooting foul
LV 87·WSH 71
- Q4·2:24
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 87·WSH 71
- Q4·2:26
Kiki Iriafen misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
LV 87·WSH 71
- Q4·2:41
Dana Evans makes 28-foot three point jumper (Chelsea Gray assists)
·
LV 87·WSH 71
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
34-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-65
52
FG %
43
10-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-14
13-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-28
27
Assists
21
11
Turnovers
12
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
- Sonia CitronWSH1.2± 0.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
WSH
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
45.7%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
32.6
28.0%
91.0
PPG
◀
85.4
83.4
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.7
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6