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FINAL+24MIN
MIN

MIN

31-8

9470
CON

CON

10-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBASat, Aug 30FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-0

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 94–70. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Napheesa Collier

Napheesa Collier

F · #24

20.0Game score

17

Pts

9

Reb

3

Ast

CON · top performer

CON
Tina Charles

Tina Charles

C · #31

13.2Game score

14

Pts

8

Reb

3

Ast

WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
94
70
MIN31-8CON10-29
MIN

MIN

31-8

94
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
B. CarletonB. Carleton★F · #6
23041100+23
A. SmithA. Smith★F · #8
251811110+23
N. CollierN. Collier★F · #24
271793230+19
K. McBrideK. McBride★G · #21
271506202+19
C. WilliamsC. Williams★G · #10
321584002+22
J. ShepardJ. ShepardF · #15
154740020
M. KliundikovaF · #77
10021110+5
N. HiedemanN. HiedemanG · #2
18513011+6
D. CarringtonD. CarringtonG · #3
171813300+1
Team9435271067
CON

CON

10-29

70
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
A. MorrowA. Morrow★F · #24
226110001-25
T. CharlesT. Charles★C · #31
301483000-7
L. AllenL. Allen★G · #15
22223212-9
M. MabreyM. Mabrey★G · #3
341442002-18
L. LacanL. Lacan★G · #47
25615015-21
H. PetersH. PetersF · #7
9260000-7
A. EdwardsA. EdwardsF · #8
211152001-10
S. RiversS. RiversG · #22
22630103-13
M. ToureM. ToureG · #28
15810001-10
Team7041153215
DNP: O. Nelson-Ododa, B. Hartley

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

52

FG %

36

27

Ast

15

Season series

MIN wins series 3-0

May 23CONCON70@MINMIN76
Jun 29CONCON63@MINMIN102
Aug 30MINMIN94@CONCON70today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ CON

Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 9:33

MINMIN
N. Collier

N. Collier

F

Game leader · 27 min

17 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

CONCON
T. Charles

T. Charles

C

Game leader · 30 min

14 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST

How it ended

MIN beat CON 94-70. N. Collier led with 17 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST. MIN outscored the other side 28-16 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs MIN

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
MINMINstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 22 REB · 15 AST

GS 64

Bench(6)

29 PTS · 13 REB · 12 AST

GS 30

CONCONstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

42 PTS · 26 REB · 13 AST

GS 27

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 15 REB · 2 AST

GS 16

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CON1st Quarter · 9:33 · 0-0
+7pp→ 17% WP

shot clock turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
MIN2121242894
CON1910251670

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · CON won 1

21
19

Q1

Smith 8

Mabrey 7

21
10

Q2

Williams 8

Rivers 2

24
25

Q3

Collier 7

Edwards 6

28
16

Q4

Smith 8

Edwards 5

MIN
CON

Shooting comparison

MIN
CON

52%

34-66

FG

36%

25-69

54%

15-28

3PT

31%

5-16

69%

11-16

FT

71%

15-21

Play-by-play · 385 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    MIN 94·CON 70

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    MIN 94·CON 70

  3. Q4·0.1

    Haley Peters makes free throw 2 of 2

    MIN 94·CON 70

  4. Q4·0.1

    Haley Peters makes free throw 1 of 2

    MIN 94·CON 69

  5. Q4·0.1

    Jaylyn Sherrod shooting foul

    MIN 94·CON 68

  6. Q4·0.1

    Haley Peters offensive rebound

    MIN 94·CON 68

  7. Q4·1.4

    Rayah Marshall misses driving layup

    MIN 94·CON 68

  8. Q4·10.7

    Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound

    MIN 94·CON 68

  9. Q4·15.2

    Natisha Hiedeman misses driving layup

    MIN 94·CON 68

  10. Q4·32.6

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound

    MIN 94·CON 68

  11. Q4·34.6

    Aneesah Morrow misses 5-foot two point shot

    MIN 94·CON 68

  12. Q4·48.0

    DiJonai Carrington makes free throw 2 of 2

    MIN 94·CON 68

  13. Q4·48.0

    DiJonai Carrington makes free throw 1 of 2

    MIN 93·CON 68

  14. Q4·48.0

    Aneesah Morrow shooting foul

    MIN 92·CON 68

  15. Q4·49.7

    DiJonai Carrington defensive rebound

    MIN 92·CON 68

  16. Q4·52.1

    Mamignan Toure misses 6-foot two point shot

    MIN 92·CON 68

  17. Q4·1:07

    Sun defensive team rebound

    MIN 92·CON 68

  18. Q4·1:09

    Jaylyn Sherrod misses free throw 2 of 2

    MIN 92·CON 68

  19. Q4·1:09

    Lynx offensive team rebound

    MIN 92·CON 68

  20. Q4·1:09

    Jaylyn Sherrod misses free throw 1 of 2

    MIN 92·CON 68

  21. Q4·1:09

    Mamignan Toure shooting foul

    MIN 92·CON 68

  22. Q4·1:16

    Rayah Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2

    MIN 92·CON 68

  23. Q4·1:16

    Sun offensive team rebound

    MIN 92·CON 67

  24. Q4·1:16

    Rayah Marshall misses free throw 1 of 2

    MIN 92·CON 67

  25. Q4·1:16

    Maria Kliundikova shooting foul

    MIN 92·CON 67

  26. Q4·1:22

    Haley Peters offensive rebound

    MIN 92·CON 67

  27. Q4·1:25

    Aneesah Morrow misses free throw 2 of 2

    MIN 92·CON 67

  28. Q4·1:25

    Aneesah Morrow makes free throw 1 of 2

    MIN 92·CON 67

  29. Q4·1:25

    Maria Kliundikova shooting foul

    MIN 92·CON 66

  30. Q4·1:38

    Jaylyn Sherrod makes free throw 2 of 2

    MIN 92·CON 66

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CON

Home

34-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

25-69

52

FG %

36

15-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-16

11-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-21

27

Assists

15

7

Turnovers

15

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 9 players in cohort
  • Jessica ShepardDAL · F
    ORB%.10999+

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CON win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CON win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CON win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CON vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • Natasha HowardMIN
    15.3± 11.8low
  • Olivia MilesMIN
    14.5± 3.8low
  • Courtney WilliamsMIN
    14.3± 9.2low

Rebounds

  • Aneesah MorrowCON
    9.4± 5.2low
  • Natasha HowardMIN
    7.4± 4.8low
  • Nia CoffeyMIN
    5.3± 3.5low

Assists

  • Olivia MilesMIN
    5.3± 2.9low
  • Courtney WilliamsMIN
    4.2± 2.5low
  • Saniya RiversCON
    3.7± 2.9low

Blocks

  • Nia CoffeyMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Kennedy BurkeCON
    0.9± 0.8low
  • Liatu KingMIN
    0.9± 1.6low

Steals

  • Kayla McBrideMIN
    1.8± 1.6low
  • Ashlon JacksonCON
    1.6± 1.5low
  • Courtney WilliamsMIN
    1.3± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

MIN

MIN

league avg

CON

CON

50.1%

FG%

◀

44.7

40.7%

34.5%

3PT %

◀

32.6

26.0%

88.4

PPG

◀

85.4

74.7

21.1

Assists / G

◀

18.0

17.9

15.3

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

14.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop