Sep 10, 25sim 94
12968973
14(H)74
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1IND
IND
21-18
7675
LA
17-20
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 76–75. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
23.8Game score
22
Pts
11
Reb
4
Ast
LA · top performer
Azura Stevens
F · #23
20.8Game score
17
Pts
6
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND21-18
7675
LA17-20
IND21-18LA17-20
IND
21-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 37 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| 34 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 35 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | |
| 27 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | |
| 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 15 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| Team | 76 | 40 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 15 | ||
| DNP: C. Bibby, M. Timpson, S. Colson, S. Cunningham, A. McDonald, C. Clark | ||||||||
LA
17-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -2 | |
| 31 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | |
| 26 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 34 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -4 | |
| 23 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 17 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +3 | |
| 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 19 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | |
| Team | 75 | 30 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 22 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, A. Pili | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
48
21
Ast
17
Season series
LA wins series 3-1
Jun 26LA85@IND75
LA85@IND75Jul 5LA89@IND87
LA89@IND87Aug 6IND91@LA100
IND91@LA100Aug 30IND76@LA75today
IND76@LA75todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 45pp · 4th Quarter · 3.8
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 37 min
22 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
LAA. Stevens
FGame leader · 31 min
17 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
IND beat LA 76-75. A. Boston led with 22 PTS, 11 REB, 4 AST. Kelsey Plum's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (45pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST
GS 49
Bench(4)
11 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 8
LAstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 22 REB · 14 AST
GS 37
Bench(4)
18 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
GS 13
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND4th Quarter · 50.8 · 74-74
+28pp→ 43% WP
Odyssey Sims · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
LA4th Quarter · 31.6 · 74-74
+21pp→ 78% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · shooting foul
IND4th Quarter · 3.8 · 76-75
+45pp→ 90% WP
Kelsey Plum · bad pass (Aliyah Boston steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 24 | 20 | 13 | 19 | 76 |
| LA | 31 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 75 |
Period scoring
IND won 3 · LA won 1
24
31
Q1
Mitchell 7
Stevens 8
20
16
Q2
Boston 6
Plum 10
13
11
Q3
Boston 4
Burrell 5
19
17
Q4
Sims 9
Stevens 9
IND
LA
Shooting comparison
IND
LA
41%
33-81
FG
48%
27-56
23%
5-22
3PT
32%
8-25
50%
5-10
FT
81%
13-16
Play-by-play · 389 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 76·LA 75
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 76·LA 75
- Q4·0.1
Brianna Turner enters the game for Odyssey Sims
·
IND 76·LA 75
- Q4·0.1
Sparks timeout
IND 76·LA 75
- Q4·0.1
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
IND 76·LA 75
−1pp
- Q4·0.4
Kelsey Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 76·LA 75
+0.6pp
- Q4·0.4
Natasha Howard enters the game for Aerial Powers
·
IND 76·LA 75
- Q4·0.4
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 76·LA 75
+0.5pp
- Q4·0.4
Kelsey Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 76·LA 75
- Q4·0.4
Julie Allemand personal take foul
IND 76·LA 75
−4pp
- Q4·1.1
(00:01.1) [Fever] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
IND 76·LA 75
+3pp
- Q4·1.1
Kelsey Plum personal take foul
IND 76·LA 75
−4pp
- Q4·1.9
Aerial Powers enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
IND 76·LA 75
- Q4·1.9
Rae Burrell enters the game for Rickea Jackson
·
IND 76·LA 75
- Q4·1.9
Fever Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
IND 76·LA 75
−5pp
- Q4·3.8
Kelsey Plum bad pass (Aliyah Boston steals)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 76·LA 75
−45pp
- Q4·13.6
Sparks Full timeout
IND 76·LA 75
- Q4·13.6
Odyssey Sims makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Lexie Hull assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 76·LA 75
−27pp
- Q4·20.0
Aliyah Boston offensive rebound
IND 74·LA 75
−3pp
- Q4·24.1
Kelsey Mitchell misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
IND 74·LA 75
+12pp
- Q4·31.6
Azura Stevens makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 74·LA 75
+16pp
- Q4·31.6
Sparks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 74·LA 74
−21pp
- Q4·31.6
Azura Stevens misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 74·LA 74
- Q4·31.6
Kelsey Mitchell shooting foulBIG MOMENT
IND 74·LA 74
+21pp
- Q4·31.6
Azura Stevens offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 74·LA 74
+6pp
- Q4·32.3
Dearica Hamby misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
IND 74·LA 74
−7pp
- Q4·43.1
Sparks Full timeout
IND 74·LA 74
- Q4·50.8
Odyssey Sims makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 74·LA 74
−28pp
- Q4·1:01
Julie Allemand makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
IND 71·LA 74
+11pp
- Q4·1:15
Aliyah Boston makes 7-foot two point shot (Kelsey Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 71·LA 72
−8pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
LA
Home
33-81
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-56
41
FG %
48
5-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-25
5-10
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-16
21
Assists
17
15
Turnovers
22
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Erica WheelerLA1.2± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
LA
45.4%
FG%
44.9
▶50.8%
32.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.0%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
91.5
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
20.8
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.8