Jul 26, 25sim 95
1458
16(H)69
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+7SEA
SEA
8-5
9083
LV
5-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm went into Las Vegas Aces and beat them, 90–83.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
25.0Game score
25
Pts
12
Reb
3
Ast
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
16.6Game score
22
Pts
4
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA8-5
9083
LV5-7
SEA8-5LV5-7
SEA
8-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +9 | |
| 38 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 18 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 38 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +12 | |
| 33 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 28 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 90 | 37 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 9 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes | ||||||||
LV
5-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 34 | 20 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | |
| 31 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 34 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 31 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| 24 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| Team | 83 | 30 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 14 | ||
| DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, J. Holmes, M. Gustafson, E. Kitley | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
48
21
Ast
20
Playoff series
LV wins series 2-1
Sep 15SEA77@LV102
SEA77@LV102Sep 17LV83@SEA86
LV83@SEA86Sep 19SEA73@LV74
SEA73@LV74Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 24pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:30
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 34 min
25 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 31 min
22 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
SEA beat LV 90-83. N. Ogwumike paced them with 25 PTS, 12 REB, 3 AST. LV outscored the other side 24-15 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 98% of ptsStarters(5)
88 PTS · 31 REB · 18 AST
GS 76
Bench(4)
2 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
LVstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST
GS 57
Bench(4)
15 PTS · 1 REB · 0 AST
GS 6
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA2nd Quarter · 1:30 · 36-35
+24pp→ 50% WP
Nneka Ogwumike · out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV3rd Quarter · 1:11 · 62-63
+15pp→ 58% WP
Aaliyah Nye · blocks Erica Wheeler 's 16-foot pullup jump shot
LV4th Quarter · 37.0 · 88-83
+14pp→ 26% WP
Nneka Ogwumike · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 23 | 15 | 29 | 23 | 90 |
| LV | 21 | 24 | 21 | 17 | 83 |
Period scoring
SEA won 3 · LV won 1
23
21
Q1
Ogwumike 6
Nye 6
15
24
Q2
Ogwumike 5
Wilson 10
29
21
Q3
Ogwumike 12
Stokes 14
23
17
Q4
Wheeler 10
Loyd 7
SEA
LV
Shooting comparison
SEA
LV
46%
33-71
FG
48%
29-61
48%
11-23
3PT
58%
11-19
81%
13-16
FT
67%
14-21
Play-by-play · 364 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 90·LV 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 90·LV 83
- Q4·1.1
shot clock turnover
SEA 90·LV 83
- Q4·24.1
Jackie Young bad pass (Alysha Clark steals)
·
SEA 90·LV 83
−1pp
- Q4·31.0
Aces Full timeout
SEA 90·LV 83
- Q4·31.0
Gabby Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 90·LV 83
+1pp
- Q4·31.0
Gabby Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 89·LV 83
- Q4·31.0
Chelsea Gray personal foul
SEA 88·LV 83
- Q4·32.1
Jackie Young personal foul
SEA 88·LV 83
−4pp
- Q4·34.0
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
SEA 88·LV 83
- Q4·37.0
A'ja Wilson misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 88·LV 83
−6pp
- Q4·37.0
Aces offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 88·LV 83
−6pp
- Q4·37.0
A'ja Wilson misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 88·LV 83
−9pp
- Q4·37.0
Nneka Ogwumike shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 88·LV 83
+14pp
- Q4·41.1
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
SEA 88·LV 83
+1pp
- Q4·43.1
Alysha Clark misses 23-foot three point jumper
SEA 88·LV 83
+3pp
- Q4·1:04
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
SEA 88·LV 83
−2pp
- Q4·1:08
Chelsea Gray misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 88·LV 83
−6pp
- Q4·1:25
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
SEA 88·LV 83
+2pp
- Q4·1:26
Erica Wheeler misses driving floating jump shot
SEA 88·LV 83
+4pp
- Q4·1:38
Alysha Clark offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 88·LV 83
−5pp
- Q4·1:41
Erica Wheeler misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA 88·LV 83
+5pp
- Q4·1:45
Gabby Williams offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 88·LV 83
−5pp
- Q4·1:46
Skylar Diggins misses driving layup
SEA 88·LV 83
+4pp
- Q4·1:58
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Dana Evans
·
SEA 88·LV 83
- Q4·1:58
Storm Full timeout
SEA 88·LV 83
- Q4·2:00
Gabby Williams offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 88·LV 83
−5pp
- Q4·2:01
Skylar Diggins misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SEA 88·LV 83
+4pp
- Q4·2:15
Jewell Loyd makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 88·LV 83
−5pp
- Q4·2:15
Jewell Loyd makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 88·LV 82
+1pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
LV
Home
33-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-61
46
FG %
48
11-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-19
13-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-21
21
Assists
20
9
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- A'ja WilsonLV1.0± 1.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
LV
41.6%
FG%
44.9
▶49.7%
34.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.9%
79.5
PPG
86.0
▶91.0
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.6