Jul 23, 25sim 96
2072
17(H)87
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11WSH
SEA
15-11
5869
WSH
12-12
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics held off Seattle Storm, 69–58.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
12.2Game score
18
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
13.6Game score
11
Pts
10
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA15-11
5869
WSH12-12
SEA15-11WSH12-12
SEA
15-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -25 | |
| 25 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -19 | |
| 26 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -20 | |
| 24 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -20 | |
| 32 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | |
| 13 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 14 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +9 | |
| 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +8 | |
| 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| Team | 58 | 28 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 14 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, Z. Cooke | ||||||||
WSH
12-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +5 | |
| 25 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +18 | |
| 25 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +26 | |
USG%.28780 ORB%.03740 DRB%.12540 | ||||||||
| 25 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +14 | |
| 30 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -10 | |
| 15 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +9 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -10 | |
| 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +5 | |
| Team | 69 | 44 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 17 | ||
| DNP: A. Edwards, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
33
FG %
44
16
Ast
20
Season series
WSH wins series 2-1
Jul 13WSH74@SEA69
WSH74@SEA69Jul 26SEA58@WSH69today
SEA58@WSH69todayAug 24SEA84@WSH82
SEA84@WSH82Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 3:36
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 27 min
18 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 30 min
11 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
WSH beat SEA 69-58. S. Citron led with 11 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST. WSH outscored the other side 24-14 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 15 REB · 14 AST
GS 28
Bench(4)
13 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST
GS 11
WSHstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 39 REB · 12 AST
GS 41
Bench(4)
13 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH3rd Quarter · 5:55 · 35-45
+12pp→ 87% WP
Sug Sutton · makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH3rd Quarter · 5:21 · 35-48
+13pp→ 92% WP
Tiffany Mitchell · misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
WSH4th Quarter · 3:36 · 56-61
+15pp→ 83% WP
Tiffany Mitchell · misses 23-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 21 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 58 |
| WSH | 16 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 69 |
Period scoring
SEA won 2 · WSH won 2
21
16
Q1
Ogwumike 14
Citron 4
14
24
Q2
Magbegor 8
Sutton 7
10
20
Q3
Wheeler 6
Sutton 8
13
9
Q4
Wheeler 6
Austin 14
SEA
WSH
Shooting comparison
SEA
WSH
33%
22-67
FG
44%
29-66
24%
5-21
3PT
23%
3-13
82%
9-11
FT
89%
8-9
Play-by-play · 387 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 58·WSH 69
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 58·WSH 69
- Q4·13.1
Sug Sutton defensive rebound
SEA 58·WSH 69
- Q4·16.1
Erica Wheeler misses 28-foot three point jumper
SEA 58·WSH 69
- Q4·26.1
Shakira Austin makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 58·WSH 69
- Q4·26.1
Shakira Austin makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 58·WSH 68
- Q4·26.1
Ezi Magbegor personal foul
SEA 58·WSH 67
- Q4·28.1
Skylar Diggins personal foul
SEA 58·WSH 67
- Q4·41.1
Sonia Citron defensive rebound
SEA 58·WSH 67
- Q4·44.1
Erica Wheeler misses 32-foot three point step back jumpshot
SEA 58·WSH 67
- Q4·51.0
Shakira Austin enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
SEA 58·WSH 67
- Q4·51.0
Storm Full timeout
SEA 58·WSH 67
- Q4·51.0
Brittney Sykes makes driving layup (Sug Sutton assists)
·
SEA 58·WSH 67
+2pp
- Q4·1:10
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
SEA 58·WSH 65
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:13
Erica Wheeler misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 58·WSH 65
+3pp
- Q4·1:19
Sug Sutton out of bounds lost ball turnover
SEA 58·WSH 65
−3pp
- Q4·1:20
Sug Sutton defensive rebound
SEA 58·WSH 65
+1pp
- Q4·1:24
Nneka Ogwumike misses 15-foot two point shot
SEA 58·WSH 65
+3pp
- Q4·1:34
Erica Wheeler enters the game for Lexie Brown
·
SEA 58·WSH 65
- Q4·1:34
Storm timeout
SEA 58·WSH 65
- Q4·1:34
Brittney Sykes makes driving layup (Sonia Citron assists)
·
SEA 58·WSH 65
+3pp
- Q4·1:48
Sonia Citron defensive rebound
SEA 58·WSH 63
+2pp
- Q4·1:51
Skylar Diggins misses 10-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
SEA 58·WSH 63
+6pp
- Q4·2:10
Lexie Brown enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
SEA 58·WSH 63
- Q4·2:10
Brittney Sykes enters the game for Jade Melbourne
·
SEA 58·WSH 63
- Q4·2:10
Kiki Iriafen travelingBIG MOMENT
SEA 58·WSH 63
−6pp
- Q4·2:21
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
SEA 58·WSH 63
- Q4·2:23
Erica Wheeler misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
SEA 58·WSH 63
+11pp
- Q4·2:23
Stefanie Dolson enters the game for Shakira Austin
·
SEA 58·WSH 63
- Q4·2:23
Sonia Citron shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 58·WSH 63
−11pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
22-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-66
33
FG %
44
5-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
3-13
9-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
8-9
16
Assists
20
14
Turnovers
17
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28780
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
- Kiki IriafenWSH14.5± 7.1low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
Assists
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
WSH
41.6%
FG%
44.9
▶44.8%
34.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
28.8%
79.5
PPG
86.0
▶82.8
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶17.5
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.7