Jun 21, 25sim 94
1490
17(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2LV
GS
10-10
102104
LV
10-11
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Golden State Valkyries, 104–102. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Tiffany Hayes
G · #15
15.8Game score
16
Pts
2
Reb
5
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
38.4Game score
34
Pts
16
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS10-10
102104
LV10-11
GS10-10LV10-11
GS
10-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 21 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 27 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| 26 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | |
| 28 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 18 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 13 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 15 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | |
| Team | 102 | 28 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 10 | ||
| DNP: S. Talbot | ||||||||
LV
10-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 33 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +4 | |
| 33 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| 31 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 31 | 30 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +8 | |
| 20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +17 | |
| 19 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 20 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| Team | 104 | 30 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 9 | ||
| DNP: K. Bell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
55
23
Ast
21
Season series
LV wins series 3-1
Jun 7LV68@GS95
LV68@GS95Jul 12GS102@LV104today
GS102@LV104todayAug 3GS77@LV101
GS77@LV101Aug 7LV78@GS72
LV78@GS72Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 2:42
GST. Hayes
GGame leader · 26 min
16 PTS · 2 REB · 5 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 33 min30+ point game
34 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LV beat GS 104-102. A. Wilson paced them with 34 PTS, 16 REB, 4 AST. A'ja Wilson's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 25 REB · 18 AST
GS 60
Bench(6)
36 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST
GS 21
LVstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
87 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST
GS 78
Bench(4)
17 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 9
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS3rd Quarter · 2:40 · 63-65
+17pp→ 31% WP
Aces Coach's Challenge ·
LV4th Quarter · 2:42 · 91-93
+20pp→ 81% WP
A'ja Wilson · makes free throw 1 of 2
GS4th Quarter · 1:49 · 93-94
+17pp→ 51% WP
Jewell Loyd · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 21 | 25 | 26 | 30 | 102 |
| LV | 23 | 22 | 31 | 28 | 104 |
Period scoring
GS won 2 · LV won 2
21
23
Q1
Hayes 6
Wilson 13
25
22
Q2
Salaun 5
Wilson 12
26
31
Q3
Leite 6
Young 17
30
28
Q4
Fagbenle 7
Young 10
GS
LV
Shooting comparison
GS
LV
51%
35-68
FG
55%
34-62
38%
12-32
3PT
29%
6-21
83%
20-24
FT
86%
30-35
Play-by-play · 419 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 102·LV 104
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 102·LV 104
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Golden State Valkyries] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
GS 102·LV 104
- Q4·0.0
Kayla Thornton makes 19-foot two point shot
GS 102·LV 104
+2pp
- Q4·2.1
Kayla Thornton offensive rebound
GS 100·LV 104
- Q4·3.1
Janelle Salaun misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 100·LV 104
+3pp
- Q4·6.1
Golden State Valkyries timeout
GS 100·LV 104
- Q4·6.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 100·LV 104
−2pp
- Q4·6.1
Temi Fagbenle enters the game for Laeticia Amihere
·
GS 100·LV 103
- Q4·6.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 100·LV 103
+0.6pp
- Q4·6.1
Janelle Salaun enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
GS 100·LV 102
- Q4·6.1
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Aaliyah Nye
·
GS 100·LV 102
- Q4·6.1
Veronica Burton personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 100·LV 102
+14pp
- Q4·7.1
Veronica Burton enters the game for Janelle Salaun
·
GS 100·LV 102
- Q4·7.1
Laeticia Amihere enters the game for Temi Fagbenle
·
GS 100·LV 102
- Q4·7.1
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
GS 100·LV 102
- Q4·7.1
Aces Full timeout
GS 100·LV 102
−4pp
- Q4·7.1
(00:07.3) [Golden State Valkyries] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
GS 100·LV 102
−4pp
- Q4·7.1
Tiffany Hayes makes 26-foot three pointer (Janelle Salaun assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 100·LV 102
−6pp
- Q4·13.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 97·LV 102
- Q4·13.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 97·LV 102
−1pp
- Q4·13.1
Janelle Salaun enters the game for Kate Martin
·
GS 97·LV 101
- Q4·13.1
Temi Fagbenle enters the game for Monique Billings
·
GS 97·LV 101
- Q4·13.1
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Aaliyah Nye
·
GS 97·LV 101
- Q4·13.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 97·LV 101
+0.6pp
- Q4·13.1
Kate Martin personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 97·LV 100
+5pp
- Q4·17.0
Kate Martin enters the game for Temi Fagbenle
·
GS 97·LV 100
- Q4·17.0
Monique Billings enters the game for Janelle Salaun
·
GS 97·LV 100
- Q4·17.0
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
GS 97·LV 100
- Q4·17.0
Aces timeout
GS 97·LV 100
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
LV
Home
35-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-62
51
FG %
55
12-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-21
20-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
30-35
23
Assists
21
10
Turnovers
9
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- Veronica BurtonGS1.0± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
LV
41.3%
FG%
44.9
▶49.7%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
34.9%
86.4
PPG
86.0
▶91.0
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
13.6