Aug 24, 25sim 93
584
8(H)97
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+14SEA
SEA
21-19
9379
MIN
30-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm went into Minnesota Lynx and beat them, 93–79.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Skylar Diggins
G · #4
22.4Game score
23
Pts
3
Reb
5
Ast
MIN · top performer
Courtney Williams
G · #10
18.1Game score
18
Pts
5
Reb
10
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA21-19
9379
MIN30-8
SEA21-19MIN30-8
SEA
21-19
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 30 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | |
| 31 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +10 | |
| 29 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +16 | |
| 33 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +15 | |
| 22 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +16 | |
| 19 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| Team | 93 | 35 | 22 | 10 | 10 | 9 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, Z. Cooke | ||||||||
MIN
30-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 24 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +11 | |
| 35 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | |
| 35 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -16 | |
eFG%.47757 AST/TO1.343 TS%.54729 | ||||||||
| 31 | 18 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 11 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -15 | |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -10 | |
| 15 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 13 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| Team | 79 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 14 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
44
22
Ast
20
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 28SEA77@MIN82
SEA77@MIN82Jun 12MIN84@SEA94
MIN84@SEA94Aug 6MIN91@SEA87
MIN91@SEA87Aug 29SEA93@MIN79today
SEA93@MIN79todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 9:51
SEAS. Diggins
GGame leader · 29 min
23 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST
MINC. Williams
GGame leader · 31 min
18 PTS · 5 REB · 10 AST
How it ended
SEA beat MIN 93-79. S. Diggins led with 23 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. SEA outscored the other side 34-17 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST
GS 62
Bench(4)
26 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST
GS 24
MINstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 26 REB · 17 AST
GS 47
Bench(7)
12 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST
GS 9
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA3rd Quarter · 1.4 · 67-63
+12pp→ 63% WP
Skylar Diggins · makes 25-foot three pointer
MIN4th Quarter · 9:51 · 68-66
+14pp→ 42% WP
Kayla McBride · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
MIN4th Quarter · 8:46 · 70-67
+12pp→ 54% WP
Dominique Malonga · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 12 | 21 | 34 | 26 | 93 |
| MIN | 25 | 21 | 17 | 16 | 79 |
Period scoring
SEA won 2 · MIN won 1
12
25
Q1
Diggins 4
McBride 9
21
21
Q2
Ogwumike 7
Williams 10
34
17
Q3
Diggins 13
Collier 7
26
16
Q4
Williams 8
McBride 4
SEA
MIN
Shooting comparison
SEA
MIN
44%
31-70
FG
44%
30-68
48%
16-33
3PT
38%
9-24
75%
15-20
FT
71%
10-14
Play-by-play · 382 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 93·MIN 79
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 93·MIN 79
- Q4·20.2
Gabby Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
·
SEA 93·MIN 79
- Q4·20.2
Gabby Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
·
SEA 92·MIN 79
- Q4·20.2
Camryn Taylor shooting foul
SEA 91·MIN 79
- Q4·40.3
Ezi Magbegor defensive rebound
SEA 91·MIN 79
- Q4·43.9
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses layup
SEA 91·MIN 79
- Q4·51.8
Camryn Taylor defensive rebound
SEA 91·MIN 79
- Q4·55.1
Nneka Ogwumike misses 26-foot three point jumper
SEA 91·MIN 79
- Q4·1:08
Maria Kliundikova enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
SEA 91·MIN 79
- Q4·1:08
Camryn Taylor enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
SEA 91·MIN 79
- Q4·1:08
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Courtney Williams
· ·
SEA 91·MIN 79
- Q4·1:08
Jaylyn Sherrod enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
SEA 91·MIN 79
- Q4·1:08
DiJonai Carrington personal take foul
SEA 91·MIN 79
- Q4·1:14
Napheesa Collier makes 10-foot jumper (Courtney Williams assists)
· ·
SEA 91·MIN 79
- Q4·1:29
Gabby Williams makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ezi Magbegor assists)
· ·
SEA 91·MIN 77
- Q4·1:41
Courtney Williams kicked ball violation
·
SEA 88·MIN 77
- Q4·1:45
Storm Full timeout
SEA 88·MIN 77
- Q4·1:49
Storm defensive team rebound
SEA 88·MIN 77
- Q4·1:51
Courtney Williams misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
SEA 88·MIN 77
- Q4·2:05
Lynx Full timeout
SEA 88·MIN 77
- Q4·2:05
Nneka Ogwumike traveling
SEA 88·MIN 77
- Q4·2:19
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
SEA 88·MIN 77
- Q4·2:21
Kayla McBride misses free throw 2 of 2
SEA 88·MIN 77
−1pp
- Q4·2:21
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 88·MIN 77
- Q4·2:21
Gabby Williams shooting foul
·
SEA 88·MIN 76
- Q4·2:28
Skylar Diggins personal foul
SEA 88·MIN 76
+1pp
- Q4·2:30
Alanna Smith offensive rebound
SEA 88·MIN 76
- Q4·2:32
Napheesa Collier misses 22-foot three point jumper
SEA 88·MIN 76
- Q4·2:42
DiJonai Carrington offensive rebound
SEA 88·MIN 76
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
31-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-68
44
FG %
44
16-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-24
15-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-14
22
Assists
20
9
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 11 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN14.3± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
- Olivia MilesMIN1.2± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
MIN
41.6%
FG%
44.7
▶50.1%
34.1%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.5%
79.5
PPG
85.4
▶88.4
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.3