Aug 10, 25sim 92
2074
11(H)66
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2LV
ATL
22-13
7274
LV
22-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Atlanta Dream, 74–72. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Brittney Griner
C · #42
17.0Game score
16
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
30.1Game score
32
Pts
12
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL22-13
7274
LV22-14
ATL22-13LV22-14
ATL
22-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 22 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 36 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 35 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 10 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | |
| 32 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| Team | 72 | 29 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 10 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry, S. Kone, S. Walker-Kimbrough, J. Canada | ||||||||
LV
22-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +15 | |
| 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 37 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +8 | |
| 36 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | |
| 36 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| Team | 74 | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 13 | ||
| DNP: M. Gustafson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
45
16
Ast
20
Season series
LV wins series 3-0
Jul 23ATL72@LV87
ATL72@LV87Aug 20ATL72@LV74today
ATL72@LV74todayAug 27LV81@ATL75
LV81@ATL75Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 4.2
ATLB. Griner
CGame leader · 26 min
16 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 37 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LV beat ATL 74-72. A. Wilson paced them with 32 PTS, 12 REB, 4 AST. Rhyne Howard's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
42 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST
GS 30
Bench(3)
30 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST
GS 23
LVstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST
GS 58
Bench(4)
10 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST
GS 1
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL3rd Quarter · 4:43 · 53-48
+16pp→ 70% WP
A'ja Wilson · bad pass (Brittney Griner steals)
LV4th Quarter · 3:58 · 67-70
+22pp→ 74% WP
Nia Coffey · bad pass (A'ja Wilson steals)
LV4th Quarter · 4.2 · 72-74
+24pp→ 93% WP
Rhyne Howard · misses driving floating jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 19 | 21 | 21 | 11 | 72 |
| LV | 18 | 23 | 16 | 17 | 74 |
Period scoring
ATL won 2 · LV won 2
19
18
Q1
Paopao 7
Young 5
21
23
Q2
Griner 6
Wilson 9
21
16
Q3
Howard 10
Wilson 8
11
17
Q4
Griner 6
Wilson 10
ATL
LV
Shooting comparison
ATL
LV
40%
26-65
FG
45%
29-64
28%
8-29
3PT
35%
7-20
86%
12-14
FT
82%
9-11
Play-by-play · 360 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 72·LV 74
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
ATL 72·LV 74
+11pp
- Q4·1.2
Kierstan Bell defensive rebound
ATL 72·LV 74
+2pp
- Q4·2.2
Brittney Griner misses 2-foot tip shot
ATL 72·LV 74
−4pp
- Q4·4.2
Brittney Griner offensive rebound
ATL 72·LV 74
−4pp
- Q4·4.2
Rhyne Howard misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 72·LV 74
+24pp
- Q4·15.9
Dream Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
ATL 72·LV 74
+5pp
- Q4·24.7
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
·
ATL 72·LV 74
−0.7pp
- Q4·30.2
A'ja Wilson misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ATL 72·LV 74
−7pp
- Q4·50.8
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
ATL 72·LV 74
+12pp
- Q4·50.8
Dream offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 72·LV 74
−9pp
- Q4·51.9
Rhyne Howard misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ATL 72·LV 74
+9pp
- Q4·1:15
A'ja Wilson makes 12-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 72·LV 74
+7pp
- Q4·1:37
Rhyne Howard makes 26-foot three pointer (Brittney Griner assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 72·LV 72
−15pp
- Q4·1:56
Kierstan Bell enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
ATL 69·LV 72
- Q4·1:56
Dream Full timeout
ATL 69·LV 72
- Q4·1:56
A'ja Wilson makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Chelsea Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
ATL 69·LV 72
+6pp
- Q4·2:14
Brittney Griner lost ball turnover (Chelsea Gray steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
ATL 69·LV 70
+9pp
- Q4·2:33
Rhyne Howard defensive rebound
ATL 69·LV 70
−2pp
- Q4·2:37
A'ja Wilson misses 12-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
ATL 69·LV 70
−6pp
- Q4·2:50
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
ATL 69·LV 70
- Q4·2:52
Brittney Griner misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
ATL 69·LV 70
+15pp
- Q4·2:52
Naz Hillmon enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
ATL 69·LV 70
- Q4·2:52
NaLyssa Smith shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 69·LV 70
−15pp
- Q4·2:52
Brittney Griner makes layup (Allisha Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
ATL 69·LV 70
−7pp
- Q4·3:00
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
·
ATL 67·LV 70
−2pp
- Q4·3:04
Chelsea Gray misses 12-foot two point shot
·
ATL 67·LV 70
−2pp
- Q4·3:22
(03:22) [Dream] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
ATL 67·LV 70
−4pp
- Q4·3:22
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
ATL 67·LV 70
+8pp
- Q4·3:45
Brittney Griner defensive rebound
ATL 67·LV 70
−2pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
LV
Home
26-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-64
40
FG %
45
8-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-20
12-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-11
16
Assists
20
10
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.9%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Allisha GrayATL17.3± 12.0low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
LV
43.5%
FG%
44.9
▶49.7%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.9%
83.5
PPG
86.0
▶91.0
19.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6