Jul 9, 25sim 96
12968980
5(H)61
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10IND
LV
12-12
7080
IND
13-12
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever held off Las Vegas Aces, 80–70.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
14.2Game score
19
Pts
3
Reb
3
Ast
IND · top performer
Natasha Howard
F · #6
22.1Game score
18
Pts
13
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV12-12
7080
IND13-12
LV12-12IND13-12
LV
12-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| 30 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | +2 | |
| 33 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -10 | |
| 27 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -19 | |
| 32 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 12 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| Team | 70 | 37 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 14 | ||
IND
13-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 18 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 35 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +15 | |
| 33 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +16 | |
| 33 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 22 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| 18 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -3 | |
| 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +7 | |
| Team | 80 | 36 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 13 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, C. Clark | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
41
12
Ast
17
Playoff series
LV wins series 3-2
Sep 21IND89@LV73
IND89@LV73Sep 24IND68@LV90
IND68@LV90Sep 26LV84@IND72
LV84@IND72Sep 28LV83@IND90
LV83@IND90Oct 1IND98@LV107
IND98@LV107Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:27
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 32 min
19 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST
INDN. Howard
FGame leader · 30 min
18 PTS · 13 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
IND beat LV 80-70. N. Howard led with 18 PTS, 13 REB, 1 AST. IND outscored the other side 27-15 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 94% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 24 REB · 11 AST
GS 45
Bench(7)
4 PTS · 13 REB · 1 AST
INDstarters 95% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 29 REB · 12 AST
GS 60
Bench(4)
4 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV2nd Quarter · 9.1 · 41-35
+9pp→ 69% WP
Jackie Young · makes 26-foot three pointer
IND3rd Quarter · 4:27 · 51-51
+9pp→ 50% WP
Sophie Cunningham · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lexie Hull assists)
LV3rd Quarter · 3:02 · 55-54
+9pp→ 58% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 18 | 23 | 15 | 14 | 70 |
| IND | 18 | 17 | 27 | 18 | 80 |
Period scoring
LV won 1 · IND won 2
18
18
Q1
Young 6
Cunningham 5
23
17
Q2
Wilson 8
Mitchell 5
15
27
Q3
Gray 5
Howard 11
14
18
Q4
Loyd 4
Mitchell 9
LV
IND
Shooting comparison
LV
IND
40%
27-67
FG
41%
29-71
13%
2-15
3PT
48%
11-23
82%
14-17
FT
79%
11-14
Play-by-play · 398 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 70·IND 80
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 70·IND 80
- Q4·4.1
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
LV 70·IND 80
- Q4·8.0
Jackie Young misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
LV 70·IND 80
- Q4·13.1
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 70·IND 80
- Q4·13.1
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 70·IND 79
- Q4·13.1
Chelsea Gray personal take foul
LV 70·IND 78
- Q4·20.1
Jackie Young personal take foul
LV 70·IND 78
- Q4·30.0
Fever defensive team rebound
LV 70·IND 78
- Q4·31.2
Jewell Loyd misses 26-foot three point jumper
LV 70·IND 78
- Q4·33.1
Aces timeout
LV 70·IND 78
- Q4·34.2
Aari McDonald makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
LV 70·IND 78
+2pp
- Q4·46.1
Aliyah Boston offensive rebound
LV 70·IND 75
+3pp
- Q4·48.1
Aliyah Boston misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
LV 70·IND 75
−2pp
- Q4·1:12
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
LV 70·IND 75
+2pp
- Q4·1:14
Chelsea Gray misses running pullup jump shot
LV 70·IND 75
+4pp
- Q4·1:20
Kelsey Mitchell bad pass (A'ja Wilson steals)
·
LV 70·IND 75
−4pp
- Q4·1:33
Lexie Hull enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
LV 70·IND 75
- Q4·1:33
Fever Full timeout
LV 70·IND 75
- Q4·1:33
Jewell Loyd makes two point shot
LV 70·IND 75
−0.8pp
- Q4·1:35
Jewell Loyd offensive rebound
LV 68·IND 75
−2pp
- Q4·1:37
Jackie Young misses running pullup jump shot
LV 68·IND 75
+2pp
- Q4·1:42
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 68·IND 75
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:46
Aliyah Boston misses 10-foot two point shot
LV 68·IND 75
−1pp
- Q4·2:03
Jackie Young makes driving layup
LV 68·IND 75
−0.7pp
- Q4·2:18
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LV 66·IND 75
- Q4·2:18
Aces Full timeout
LV 66·IND 75
- Q4·2:20
Aliyah Boston makes 3-foot layup (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
·
LV 66·IND 75
+1pp
- Q4·2:27
A'ja Wilson personal foul
LV 66·IND 73
+1pp
- Q4·2:41
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
LV 66·IND 73
+0.7pp
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
IND
Home
27-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-71
40
FG %
41
2-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-23
14-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-14
12
Assists
17
14
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
IND
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
45.4%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
32.6
32.1%
91.0
PPG
85.4
▶92.9
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
22.3
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4