Jul 30, 25sim 98
1789
6(H)74
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13GS
LA
14-16
5972
GS
15-15
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off Los Angeles Sparks, 72–59.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Dearica Hamby
F · #5
11.2Game score
15
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
GS · top performer
Veronica Burton
G · #22
17.2Game score
16
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA14-16
5972
GS15-15
LA14-16GS15-15
LA
14-16
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| 20 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | |
| 29 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| 34 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -18 | |
| 30 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -18 | |
| 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -15 | |
| 13 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 22 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| Team | 59 | 31 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 12 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon | ||||||||
GS
15-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +13 | |
| 32 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 25 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| 29 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +7 | |
| 34 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +14 | |
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 15 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| Team | 72 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 13 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
33
FG %
44
15
Ast
20
Season series
GS wins series 3-1
May 17LA84@GS67
LA84@GS67May 24GS82@LA73
GS82@LA73Jun 10GS89@LA81
GS89@LA81Aug 10LA59@GS72today
LA59@GS72todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 19pp · 2nd Quarter · 9.7
LAD. Hamby
FGame leader · 27 min
15 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
GSV. Burton
GGame leader · 34 min
16 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
GS beat LA 72-59. V. Burton led with 16 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. Dearica Hamby's play in the 2nd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
41 PTS · 21 REB · 13 AST
GS 27
Bench(6)
18 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
GS 8
GSstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 28 REB · 17 AST
GS 53
Bench(6)
15 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
GS 2
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS2nd Quarter · 3:06 · 21-31
+18pp→ 83% WP
Rae Burrell · bad pass (Cecilia Zandalasini steals)
LA2nd Quarter · 9:35 · 14-19
+15pp→ 32% WP
Julie Allemand · vs. Iliana Rupert
GS2nd Quarter · 9.7 · 23-33
+19pp→ 83% WP
Dearica Hamby · misses layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 14 | 9 | 25 | 11 | 59 |
| GS | 19 | 14 | 23 | 16 | 72 |
Period scoring
LA won 1 · GS won 3
14
19
Q1
Jackson 6
Zandalasini 5
9
14
Q2
Burrell 5
Burrell 12
25
23
Q3
Hamby 15
Hayes 20
11
16
Q4
Allemand 5
Leite 7
LA
GS
Shooting comparison
LA
GS
33%
20-61
FG
44%
27-61
24%
8-34
3PT
35%
12-34
79%
11-14
FT
60%
6-10
Play-by-play · 342 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 59·GS 72
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 59·GS 72
- Q4·22.0
Carla Leite defensive rebound
LA 59·GS 72
- Q4·25.0
Rae Burrell misses free throw 2 of 2
LA 59·GS 72
- Q4·25.0
Rae Burrell makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 59·GS 72
- Q4·25.0
Kate Martin shooting foul
LA 58·GS 72
- Q4·32.8
Laeticia Amihere lost ball turnover (Julie Vanloo steals)
·
LA 58·GS 72
- Q4·34.1
Laeticia Amihere offensive rebound
LA 58·GS 72
- Q4·37.4
Kate Martin misses 26-foot three point jumper
LA 58·GS 72
- Q4·54.7
Julie Vanloo makes two point shot
LA 58·GS 72
- Q4·57.2
Kaitlyn Chen lost ball turnover (Julie Vanloo steals)
·
LA 56·GS 72
- Q4·1:03
Alissa Pili makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 56·GS 72
- Q4·1:03
Sparks offensive team rebound
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:03
Kaila Charles enters the game for Janelle Salaun
·
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:03
Alissa Pili misses free throw 1 of 2
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:03
Janelle Salaun shooting foul
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:11
Julie Vanloo defensive rebound
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:14
Kate Martin misses 25-foot three point jumper
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:34
Laeticia Amihere enters the game for Tiffany Hayes
·
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:34
Kate Martin enters the game for Cecilia Zandalasini
·
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:34
Kaitlyn Chen enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:34
Carla Leite enters the game for Temi Fagbenle
·
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:34
Golden State Valkyries defensive team rebound
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:35
Alissa Pili misses 23-foot three point shot
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:42
Julie Vanloo defensive rebound
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·1:44
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 25-foot three point jumper
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·2:08
Rae Burrell makes 6-foot two point shot (Julie Vanloo assists)
·
LA 55·GS 72
- Q4·2:27
Sania Feagin defensive rebound
LA 53·GS 72
- Q4·2:30
Tiffany Hayes misses 24-foot jump bank shot
LA 53·GS 72
- Q4·2:54
Rae Burrell bad pass (Janelle Salaun steals)
·
LA 53·GS 72
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
GS
Home
20-61
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-61
33
FG %
44
8-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-34
11-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
6-10
15
Assists
20
12
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
GS
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.3%
34.3%
3PT %
32.6
▶36.1%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
86.4
21.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1