Jul 16, 25sim 94
1680
6(H)99
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2SEA
SEA
20-18
8482
WSH
16-22
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 84–82. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
25.5Game score
30
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
WSH · top performer
Shakira Austin
C · #0
24.1Game score
30
Pts
5
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA20-18
8482
WSH16-22
SEA20-18WSH16-22
SEA
20-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| 32 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | |
| 20 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -7 | |
| 34 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 30 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 28 | 17 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| 17 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| Team | 84 | 31 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 11 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, L. Brown, Z. Cooke | ||||||||
WSH
16-22
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 27 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | |
| 26 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -13 | |
| 35 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 36 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -1 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 18 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +22 | |
| 30 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| Team | 82 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 19 | ||
| DNP: J. Sheldon, M. Scott, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
51
23
Ast
19
Season series
WSH wins series 2-1
Jul 13WSH74@SEA69
WSH74@SEA69Jul 26SEA58@WSH69
SEA58@WSH69Aug 24SEA84@WSH82today
SEA84@WSH82todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 41pp · 4th Quarter · 1.4
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 32 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
WSHS. Austin
CGame leader · 26 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
SEA beat WSH 84-82. N. Ogwumike paced them with 30 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST. SEA outscored the other side 28-19 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 19 REB · 18 AST
GS 58
Bench(3)
18 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
GS 14
WSHstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 24 REB · 11 AST
GS 46
Bench(4)
15 PTS · 10 REB · 8 AST
GS 19
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA4th Quarter · 16.2 · 82-79
+26pp→ 79% WP
Brittney Sykes · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)
WSH4th Quarter · 6.7 · 82-82
+24pp→ 44% WP
Sug Sutton · makes 23-foot three pointer
SEA4th Quarter · 1.4 · 84-82
+41pp→ 96% WP
Nneka Ogwumike · makes 15-foot two point shot (Skylar Diggins assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 28 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 84 |
| WSH | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 82 |
Period scoring
SEA won 1 · WSH won 2
28
19
Q1
Ogwumike 10
Iriafen 8
20
20
Q2
Malonga 10
Austin 7
19
21
Q3
Ogwumike 13
Citron 8
17
22
Q4
Diggins 5
Austin 10
SEA
WSH
Shooting comparison
SEA
WSH
43%
32-74
FG
51%
30-59
48%
10-21
3PT
55%
6-11
77%
10-13
FT
89%
16-18
Play-by-play · 377 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 84·WSH 82
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 84·WSH 82
−4pp
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Storm] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
SEA 84·WSH 82
- Q4·1.4
Nneka Ogwumike makes 15-foot two point shot (Skylar Diggins assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 84·WSH 82
−41pp
- Q4·6.1
Dominique Malonga enters the game for Ezi Magbegor
·
SEA 82·WSH 82
- Q4·6.1
Kiki Iriafen enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
SEA 82·WSH 82
- Q4·6.1
Storm Full timeout
SEA 82·WSH 82
+0.5pp
- Q4·6.7
Sug Sutton makes 23-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
SEA 82·WSH 82
+24pp
- Q4·15.5
Ezi Magbegor enters the game for Dominique Malonga
·
SEA 82·WSH 79
- Q4·15.5
Stefanie Dolson enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
·
SEA 82·WSH 79
- Q4·15.5
Mystics Full timeout
SEA 82·WSH 79
−0.7pp
- Q4·16.2
Brittney Sykes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 82·WSH 79
−26pp
- Q4·35.0
Storm Full timeout
SEA 79·WSH 79
- Q4·36.4
Kiki Iriafen makes driving layup (Sug Sutton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 79·WSH 79
+7pp
- Q4·55.8
Dominique Malonga makes 2-foot two point shot (Gabby Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 79·WSH 77
−6pp
- Q4·1:16
Shakira Austin makes layup (Jade Melbourne assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 77·WSH 77
+6pp
- Q4·1:24
Sonia Citron defensive rebound
SEA 77·WSH 75
+3pp
- Q4·1:28
Skylar Diggins misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
SEA 77·WSH 75
+8pp
- Q4·1:46
Shakira Austin makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 77·WSH 75
−8pp
- Q4·1:46
Shakira Austin makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 77·WSH 74
+2pp
- Q4·1:46
Dominique Malonga personal foul
SEA 77·WSH 73
- Q4·1:52
Brittney Sykes personal foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 77·WSH 73
+19pp
- Q4·2:03
Dominique Malonga makes two point shot (Skylar Diggins assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 77·WSH 73
−8pp
- Q4·2:07
Shakira Austin bad pass (Gabby Williams steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 75·WSH 73
−10pp
- Q4·2:29
Kiki Iriafen enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
SEA 75·WSH 73
- Q4·2:29
Mystics Full timeout
SEA 75·WSH 73
- Q4·2:30
Gabby Williams makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 75·WSH 73
−10pp
- Q4·2:33
Shakira Austin lost ball turnover (Dominique Malonga steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 73·WSH 73
−9pp
- Q4·2:57
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 73·WSH 73
- Q4·2:57
Storm offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 72·WSH 73
+7pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
32-74
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-59
43
FG %
51
10-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-11
10-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-18
23
Assists
19
11
Turnovers
19
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
- Kiki IriafenWSH14.5± 7.1low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
Assists
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
WSH
41.6%
FG%
44.7
▶45.7%
34.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
28.0%
79.5
PPG
85.4
▶83.4
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶18.7
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6