Jul 17, 25sim 97
1790
3(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+26LV
LV
13-13
10680
DAL
7-19
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 106–80. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
24.0Game score
24
Pts
3
Reb
8
Ast
DAL · top performer
Teaira McCowan
C · #15
13.4Game score
12
Pts
13
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV13-13
10680
DAL7-19
LV13-13DAL7-19
LV
13-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 21 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +25 | |
| 34 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +25 | |
| 28 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +21 | |
| 31 | 24 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +14 | |
| 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 19 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 18 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 15 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +20 | |
| Team | 106 | 37 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 10 | ||
DAL
7-19
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 15 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -32 | |
| 31 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 30 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -37 | |
| 25 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -17 | |
| 17 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 20 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 30 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 | |
| Team | 80 | 38 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 11 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
38
30
Ast
15
Season series
LV wins series 4-0
Jun 14DAL84@LV88
DAL84@LV88Jul 17LV90@DAL86
LV90@DAL86Jul 27LV106@DAL80today
LV106@DAL80todayAug 17DAL87@LV106
DAL87@LV106Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 12pp · 1st Quarter · 5:54
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 31 min
24 PTS · 3 REB · 8 AST
DALT. McCowan
CGame leader · 17 min
12 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
LV beat DAL 106-80. J. Young led with 24 PTS, 3 REB, 8 AST. LV outscored the other side 29-17 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 29 REB · 24 AST
GS 78
Bench(5)
28 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
GS 19
DALstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST
GS 27
Bench(4)
32 PTS · 21 REB · 6 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV1st Quarter · 5:54 · 12-9
+12pp→ 62% WP
Jewell Loyd · enters the game for Chelsea Gray
LV2nd Quarter · 7:25 · 34-31
+7pp→ 60% WP
Jewell Loyd · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kierstan Bell assists)
LV2nd Quarter · 4:56 · 42-36
+7pp→ 70% WP
Kierstan Bell · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 27 | 29 | 17 | 33 | 106 |
| DAL | 27 | 17 | 14 | 22 | 80 |
Period scoring
LV won 3 · DAL won 0
27
27
Q1
Young 14
Ogunbowale 8
29
17
Q2
Bell 8
Jones 5
17
14
Q3
Loyd 6
McCowan 6
33
22
Q4
Loyd 9
McCowan 6
LV
DAL
Shooting comparison
LV
DAL
49%
36-74
FG
38%
30-79
42%
15-36
3PT
21%
4-19
79%
19-24
FT
76%
16-21
Play-by-play · 427 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 106·DAL 80
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 106·DAL 80
- Q4·18.1
Dana Evans defensive rebound
LV 106·DAL 80
- Q4·20.0
DiJonai Carrington misses 20-foot jumper
LV 106·DAL 80
- Q4·33.1
NaLyssa Smith makes 10-foot two point shot (Dana Evans assists)
·
LV 106·DAL 80
- Q4·50.1
Dana Evans defensive rebound
LV 104·DAL 80
- Q4·52.0
Luisa Geiselsoder misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 104·DAL 80
- Q4·57.1
DiJonai Carrington offensive rebound
LV 104·DAL 80
- Q4·1:00
Aziaha James misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
LV 104·DAL 80
- Q4·1:11
Jewell Loyd makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot
LV 104·DAL 80
- Q4·1:20
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 101·DAL 80
- Q4·1:22
Aziaha James misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
LV 101·DAL 80
- Q4·1:37
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 101·DAL 80
- Q4·1:37
Dana Evans enters the game for Chelsea Gray
·
LV 100·DAL 80
- Q4·1:37
Jewell Loyd enters the game for Kierstan Bell
·
LV 100·DAL 80
- Q4·1:37
NaLyssa Smith enters the game for Jackie Young
·
LV 100·DAL 80
- Q4·1:37
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 100·DAL 80
- Q4·1:37
Grace Berger shooting foul
LV 99·DAL 80
- Q4·1:41
Chelsea Gray offensive rebound
LV 99·DAL 80
- Q4·1:44
Kierstan Bell misses 24-foot three point shot
LV 99·DAL 80
- Q4·1:49
Luisa Geiselsoder bad pass (A'ja Wilson steals)
·
LV 99·DAL 80
- Q4·1:58
Kierstan Bell makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
LV 99·DAL 80
- Q4·2:14
Aaliyah Nye defensive rebound
LV 96·DAL 80
- Q4·2:16
Aziaha James misses 24-foot three point jumper
LV 96·DAL 80
- Q4·2:30
Kierstan Bell makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 96·DAL 80
- Q4·2:30
Kierstan Bell makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 95·DAL 80
- Q4·2:30
Luisa Geiselsoder loose ball foul
LV 94·DAL 80
- Q4·2:30
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 94·DAL 80
- Q4·2:31
Aaliyah Nye misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 94·DAL 80
- Q4·2:36
Teaira McCowan enters the game for Haley Jones
·
LV 94·DAL 80
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
36-74
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-79
49
FG %
38
15-36
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-19
19-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-21
30
Assists
15
10
Turnovers
11
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- Alanna SmithDAL1.0± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
DAL
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
46.6%
34.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
91.0
PPG
◀
85.4
88.9
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3