Aug 17, 25sim 97
686
16(H)95
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5GS
GS
17-15
8883
WSH
14-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 88–83.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Veronica Burton
G · #22
27.5Game score
30
Pts
7
Reb
7
Ast
WSH · top performer
Sug Sutton
G · #1
13.9Game score
15
Pts
1
Reb
7
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS17-15
8883
WSH14-18
GS17-15WSH14-18
GS
17-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +18 | |
| 29 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | |
| 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 32 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 36 | 30 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 25 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| Team | 88 | 30 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 13 | ||
| DNP: L. Amihere, K. Chen | ||||||||
WSH
14-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| 17 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -17 | |
| 29 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 34 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 23 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 19 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -23 | |
| 24 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | |
| 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| Team | 83 | 26 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 8 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
47
20
Ast
21
Season series
GS wins series 4-0
May 22WSH74@GS76
WSH74@GS76Jul 31GS68@WSH67
GS68@WSH67Aug 13GS88@WSH83today
GS88@WSH83todayAug 31WSH62@GS99
WSH62@GS99Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 22.6
GSV. Burton
GGame leader · 36 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 7 REB · 7 AST
WSHS. Sutton
GGame leader · 29 min
15 PTS · 1 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
GS beat WSH 88-83. V. Burton paced them with 30 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST. GS outscored the other side 30-12 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 88% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 24 REB · 15 AST
GS 68
Bench(4)
11 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
GS 1
WSHstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 15 REB · 17 AST
GS 46
Bench(4)
24 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH4th Quarter · 1:35 · 84-80
+8pp→ 15% WP
Sonia Citron · makes 23-foot three point shot (Sug Sutton assists)
WSH4th Quarter · 53.8 · 86-83
+15pp→ 23% WP
Sug Sutton · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sonia Citron assists)
GS4th Quarter · 22.6 · 86-83
+16pp→ 83% WP
Kiki Iriafen · misses driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 30 | 16 | 24 | 18 | 88 |
| WSH | 12 | 16 | 24 | 31 | 83 |
Period scoring
GS won 1 · WSH won 1
30
12
Q1
Zandalasini 8
Melbourne 3
16
16
Q2
Zandalasini 6
Sheldon 5
24
24
Q3
Burton 11
Melbourne 5
18
31
Q4
Burton 9
Citron 13
GS
WSH
Shooting comparison
GS
WSH
51%
29-57
FG
47%
30-64
47%
15-32
3PT
29%
7-24
88%
15-17
FT
89%
16-18
Play-by-play · 342 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 88·WSH 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 88·WSH 83
- Q4·1.4
Cecilia Zandalasini defensive rebound
GS 88·WSH 83
- Q4·1.4
Sonia Citron misses 14-foot step back jumpshot
GS 88·WSH 83
−1pp
- Q4·4.9
Mystics offensive team rebound
GS 88·WSH 83
+0.5pp
- Q4·5.4
Sonia Citron misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 88·WSH 83
−1pp
- Q4·8.5
Kiki Iriafen offensive rebound
GS 88·WSH 83
+0.6pp
- Q4·10.9
Lucy Olsen misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 88·WSH 83
−3pp
- Q4·15.4
Mystics timeout
GS 88·WSH 83
- Q4·15.4
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 88·WSH 83
+2pp
- Q4·15.4
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 87·WSH 83
−0.6pp
- Q4·15.4
Lucy Olsen personal foul
GS 86·WSH 83
−4pp
- Q4·16.0
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 86·WSH 83
+4pp
- Q4·16.0
Sonia Citron personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 86·WSH 83
−10pp
- Q4·20.4
Janelle Salaun defensive rebound
GS 86·WSH 83
−4pp
- Q4·22.6
Kiki Iriafen misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 86·WSH 83
−16pp
- Q4·34.5
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
GS 86·WSH 83
+3pp
- Q4·36.8
Iliana Rupert misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 86·WSH 83
+7pp
- Q4·53.2
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 86·WSH 83
- Q4·53.8
Sug Sutton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sonia Citron assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 86·WSH 83
+15pp
- Q4·1:08
Tiffany Hayes makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 86·WSH 80
−6pp
- Q4·1:08
Tiffany Hayes offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 84·WSH 80
−7pp
- Q4·1:08
Iliana Rupert misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 84·WSH 80
+6pp
- Q4·1:35
Sonia Citron makes 23-foot three point shot (Sug Sutton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 84·WSH 80
+8pp
- Q4·1:39
Sug Sutton defensive rebound
GS 84·WSH 77
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:41
Tiffany Hayes misses driving floating jump shot
GS 84·WSH 77
+1pp
- Q4·2:05
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 1
GS 84·WSH 77
−2pp
- Q4·2:05
Janelle Salaun shooting foul
GS 84·WSH 76
+5pp
- Q4·2:05
Sonia Citron makes 9-foot running pullup jump shot (Emily Engstler assists)
·
GS 84·WSH 76
+0.7pp
- Q4·2:08
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
GS 84·WSH 74
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
29-57
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-64
51
FG %
47
15-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-24
15-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-18
20
Assists
21
13
Turnovers
8
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
- Gabby WilliamsGS2.9± 2.4low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
WSH
41.3%
FG%
44.7
▶45.7%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
28.0%
86.4
PPG
◀
85.4
83.4
19.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.7
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6