Jun 29, 25sim 95
1671
3(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8IND
IND
8-8
9486
DAL
4-13
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 94–86.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
25.3Game score
32
Pts
3
Reb
7
Ast
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
25.9Game score
27
Pts
1
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND8-8
9486
DAL4-13
IND8-8DAL4-13
IND
8-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +16 | |
| 35 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 34 | 32 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +9 | |
| 30 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7 | |
| 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 12 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 24 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +15 | |
| Team | 94 | 32 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 11 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner | ||||||||
DAL
4-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 32 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -10 | |
| 14 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 36 | 27 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -9 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 23 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 26 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 13 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| Team | 86 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 8 | ||
| DNP: H. Jones | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
59
FG %
43
23
Ast
21
Season series
IND wins series 3-1
Jun 27IND94@DAL86today
IND94@DAL86todayJul 13DAL83@IND102
DAL83@IND102Aug 1IND88@DAL78
IND88@DAL78Aug 12DAL81@IND80
DAL81@IND80Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 38pp · 4th Quarter · 4:15
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 34 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 36 min
27 PTS · 1 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
IND beat DAL 94-86. K. Mitchell paced them with 32 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST. IND outscored the other side 33-13 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 89% of ptsStarters(5)
84 PTS · 26 REB · 20 AST
GS 71
Bench(3)
10 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 9
DALstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST
GS 42
Bench(3)
28 PTS · 4 REB · 8 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL4th Quarter · 5:29 · 79-79
+16pp→ 61% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · shooting foul
DAL4th Quarter · 4:18 · 82-82
+17pp→ 48% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · misses two point shot
DAL4th Quarter · 4:15 · 82-82
+38pp→ 48% WP
Aliyah Boston · misses two point shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 33 | 23 | 18 | 20 | 94 |
| DAL | 13 | 30 | 26 | 17 | 86 |
Period scoring
IND won 2 · DAL won 2
33
13
Q1
Mitchell 10
Hines-Allen 6
23
30
Q2
Mitchell 9
Bueckers 9
18
26
Q3
Mitchell 7
Ogunbowale 9
20
17
Q4
Howard 13
Bueckers 7
IND
DAL
Shooting comparison
IND
DAL
59%
35-59
FG
43%
29-68
43%
6-14
3PT
35%
6-17
82%
18-22
FT
88%
22-25
Play-by-play · 379 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 94·DAL 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 94·DAL 86
- Q4·3.1
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
IND 94·DAL 86
- Q4·5.1
Myisha Hines-Allen misses two point shot
IND 94·DAL 86
- Q4·9.1
Natasha Howard lost ball turnover (Myisha Hines-Allen steals)
·
IND 94·DAL 86
- Q4·12.2
Kelsey Mitchell defensive rebound
IND 94·DAL 86
- Q4·16.2
Myisha Hines-Allen misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 94·DAL 86
−0.6pp
- Q4·23.1
Wings Full timeout
IND 94·DAL 86
- Q4·23.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 94·DAL 86
- Q4·23.1
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 93·DAL 86
- Q4·23.1
Kelsey Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 93·DAL 86
- Q4·23.1
Arike Ogunbowale personal take foul
IND 93·DAL 86
- Q4·25.1
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
IND 93·DAL 86
- Q4·27.1
Paige Bueckers misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
IND 93·DAL 86
−1pp
- Q4·36.0
Aziaha James enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
IND 93·DAL 86
- Q4·36.0
Arike Ogunbowale enters the game for JJ Quinerly
·
IND 93·DAL 86
- Q4·36.0
Wings timeout
IND 93·DAL 86
- Q4·36.0
Li Yueru defensive rebound
IND 93·DAL 86
- Q4·38.0
Aari McDonald misses driving layup
IND 93·DAL 86
+0.8pp
- Q4·45.1
Fever Full timeout
IND 93·DAL 86
- Q4·54.1
JJ Quinerly makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 93·DAL 86
−2pp
- Q4·54.1
Kaila Charles enters the game for Arike Ogunbowale
·
IND 93·DAL 85
- Q4·54.1
JJ Quinerly makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 93·DAL 85
- Q4·54.1
Aliyah Boston personal foul
IND 93·DAL 84
+2pp
- Q4·1:00
Aari McDonald makes driving layup
IND 93·DAL 84
−1pp
- Q4·1:15
Sophie Cunningham defensive rebound
IND 91·DAL 84
−0.8pp
- Q4·1:20
Arike Ogunbowale misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 91·DAL 84
−3pp
- Q4·1:44
JJ Quinerly enters the game for Aziaha James
·
IND 91·DAL 84
- Q4·1:44
Wings defensive team rebound
IND 91·DAL 84
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:46
Kelsey Mitchell misses driving floating jump shot
IND 91·DAL 84
+1pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
35-59
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-68
59
FG %
43
6-14
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-17
18-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-25
23
Assists
21
11
Turnovers
8
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
Steals
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
DAL
45.4%
FG%
44.7
▶46.6%
32.1%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
92.9
PPG
◀
85.4
88.9
22.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3