Aug 13, 25sim 97
12968988
16(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9WSH
LA
16-18
8695
WSH
16-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics held off Los Angeles Sparks, 95–86.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
23.5Game score
25
Pts
3
Reb
6
Ast
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
18.0Game score
24
Pts
1
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA16-18
8695
WSH16-18
LA16-18WSH16-18
LA
16-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | |
| 29 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 38 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -4 | |
| 38 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -7 | |
| 25 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -9 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 17 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| Team | 86 | 15 | 23 | 8 | 4 | 7 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, A. Pili, S. Barker | ||||||||
WSH
16-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
| 18 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | |
| 29 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | |
| 27 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 24 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +6 | |
| 23 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +8 | |
| 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 18 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| Team | 95 | 35 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 14 | ||
| DNP: J. Sheldon, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
59
23
Ast
30
Season series
LA wins series 3-1
Jul 16WSH80@LA99
WSH80@LA99Jul 22LA93@WSH86
LA93@WSH86Aug 17LA86@WSH95today
LA86@WSH95todaySep 1WSH78@LA81
WSH78@LA81Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 1:35
LAK. Plum
GGame leader · 38 min
25 PTS · 3 REB · 6 AST
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 27 min
24 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
WSH beat LA 95-86. S. Citron led with 24 PTS, 1 REB, 3 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 88% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 13 REB · 19 AST
GS 64
Bench(3)
10 PTS · 2 REB · 4 AST
GS 7
WSHstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 22 REB · 20 AST
GS 66
Bench(5)
20 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA4th Quarter · 6:25 · 79-82
+7pp→ 30% WP
Dearica Hamby · makes 3-foot layup (Kelsey Plum assists)
LA4th Quarter · 1:35 · 86-92
+10pp→ 20% WP
Jade Melbourne · shooting foul
LA4th Quarter · 1:35 · 86-92
+7pp→ 15% WP
Dearica Hamby · misses free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 18 | 23 | 24 | 21 | 86 |
| WSH | 23 | 30 | 24 | 18 | 95 |
Period scoring
LA won 1 · WSH won 2
18
23
Q1
Jackson 8
Austin 5
23
30
Q2
Hamby 6
Iriafen 7
24
24
Q3
Hamby 12
Citron 8
21
18
Q4
Plum 9
Citron 10
LA
WSH
Shooting comparison
LA
WSH
50%
35-70
FG
59%
35-59
33%
8-24
3PT
55%
11-20
73%
8-11
FT
78%
14-18
Play-by-play · 366 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 86·WSH 95
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 86·WSH 95
- Q4·9.4
Sug Sutton defensive rebound
LA 86·WSH 95
- Q4·12.4
Rickea Jackson misses 25-foot three point jumper
LA 86·WSH 95
- Q4·20.3
Emily Engstler makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 86·WSH 95
- Q4·20.3
Madison Scott enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
·
LA 86·WSH 94
- Q4·20.3
Lucy Olsen enters the game for Sonia Citron
·
LA 86·WSH 94
- Q4·20.3
Mystics offensive team rebound
LA 86·WSH 94
- Q4·20.3
Emily Engstler misses free throw 1 of 2
LA 86·WSH 94
- Q4·20.3
Rickea Jackson personal foul
LA 86·WSH 94
- Q4·20.6
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
LA 86·WSH 94
- Q4·24.2
Azura Stevens misses 31-foot three point jumper
LA 86·WSH 94
+0.7pp
- Q4·29.9
Sparks delay of game violation
LA 86·WSH 94
- Q4·29.9
Sparks Full timeout
LA 86·WSH 94
- Q4·29.9
Kiki Iriafen makes driving layup (Sug Sutton assists)
·
LA 86·WSH 94
+2pp
- Q4·51.4
Alysha Clark defensive rebound
LA 86·WSH 92
+0.9pp
- Q4·54.5
Kelsey Plum misses 24-foot three point jumper
LA 86·WSH 92
+1pp
- Q4·1:02
(01:02) [Sparks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
LA 86·WSH 92
+2pp
- Q4·1:02
shot clock turnover
LA 86·WSH 92
−5pp
- Q4·1:16
Kelsey Plum personal foul
LA 86·WSH 92
+4pp
- Q4·1:32
Sug Sutton defensive rebound
LA 86·WSH 92
- Q4·1:35
Dearica Hamby misses free throw 2 of 2
LA 86·WSH 92
+4pp
- Q4·1:35
Sparks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LA 86·WSH 92
+5pp
- Q4·1:35
Dearica Hamby misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 86·WSH 92
−7pp
- Q4·1:35
Alysha Clark enters the game for Jade Melbourne
·
LA 86·WSH 92
- Q4·1:35
(01:35) [Sparks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)BIG MOMENT
LA 86·WSH 92
+12pp
- Q4·1:35
Jade Melbourne shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LA 86·WSH 92
−10pp
- Q4·1:36
Julie Allemand defensive rebound
LA 86·WSH 92
−0.9pp
- Q4·1:39
Rickea Jackson blocks Kiki Iriafen 's 3-foot layup
·
LA 86·WSH 92
−2pp
- Q4·2:02
Kelsey Plum makes 23-foot three point jumper
LA 86·WSH 92
−4pp
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
35-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-59
50
FG %
59
8-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-20
8-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-18
23
Assists
30
7
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Angela DugalicWSH0.6± 0.7low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
WSH
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
45.7%
34.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
28.0%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
83.4
21.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.7
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶15.6