Jul 12, 25sim 97
881
19(H)87
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9MIN
MIN
18-3
9182
LA
6-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 91–82.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Alanna Smith
F · #8
15.8Game score
15
Pts
5
Reb
0
Ast
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
19.6Game score
17
Pts
3
Reb
12
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN18-3
9182
LA6-14
MIN18-3LA6-14
MIN
18-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -5 | |
| 32 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +10 | |
| 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 33 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +5 | |
| 14 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| 9 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 12 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 19 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| Team | 91 | 32 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
LA
6-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +2 | |
| 27 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | |
| 31 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | |
| 32 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -2 | |
| 23 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -14 | |
| 17 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| Team | 82 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 22 | ||
| DNP: C. Brink | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
50
28
Ast
24
Season series
MIN wins series 4-0
May 18MIN89@LA75
MIN89@LA75Jun 14LA78@MIN101
LA78@MIN101Jun 22LA66@MIN82
LA66@MIN82Jul 10MIN91@LA82today
MIN91@LA82todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 10pp · 1st Quarter · 11.0
MINA. Smith
FGame leader · 23 min
15 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST
LAK. Plum
GGame leader · 32 min
17 PTS · 3 REB · 12 AST
How it ended
MIN beat LA 91-82. A. Smith led with 15 PTS, 5 REB, 0 AST. MIN outscored the other side 28-14 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 22 REB · 20 AST
GS 54
Bench(6)
34 PTS · 10 REB · 8 AST
GS 33
LAstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 25 REB · 20 AST
GS 42
Bench(6)
26 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA1st Quarter · 3:15 · 10-21
+6pp→ 64% WP
Rickea Jackson · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Azura Stevens assists)
MIN1st Quarter · 1:35 · 20-21
+7pp→ 63% WP
Natisha Hiedeman · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Napheesa Collier assists)
LA1st Quarter · 11.0 · 22-25
+10pp→ 46% WP
Cheryl Reeve · technical foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 22 | 28 | 30 | 11 | 91 |
| LA | 26 | 14 | 19 | 23 | 82 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · LA won 2
22
26
Q1
Hiedeman 10
Plum 9
28
14
Q2
Williams 7
Vanloo 6
30
19
Q3
Collier 9
Plum 6
11
23
Q4
Smith 5
Hiedeman 12
MIN
LA
Shooting comparison
MIN
LA
48%
38-80
FG
50%
29-58
27%
10-37
3PT
48%
13-27
83%
5-6
FT
92%
11-12
Play-by-play · 355 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 91·LA 82
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 91·LA 82
- Q4·7.0
Maria Kliundikova defensive rebound
MIN 91·LA 82
- Q4·10.1
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu blocks Rae Burrell 's 7-foot driving layup
·
MIN 91·LA 82
- Q4·16.0
Rae Burrell defensive rebound
MIN 91·LA 82
- Q4·21.1
Natisha Hiedeman misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIN 91·LA 82
−1pp
- Q4·45.0
Emma Cannon makes 26-foot jump bank shot (Julie Vanloo assists)
·
MIN 91·LA 82
- Q4·50.1
Natisha Hiedeman personal foul
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:05
Rae Burrell defensive rebound
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:09
Natisha Hiedeman misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:21
Emma Cannon enters the game for Julie Allemand
·
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:21
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:21
Diamond Miller enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:21
Maria Kliundikova enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:21
Alissa Pili enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:21
Rae Burrell enters the game for Azura Stevens
·
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:21
Julie Vanloo enters the game for Kelsey Plum
·
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:21
Sania Feagin enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:21
Sarah Ashlee Barker enters the game for Rickea Jackson
·
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:21
Dearica Hamby personal foul
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:27
Rickea Jackson makes layup (Julie Allemand assists)
·
MIN 91·LA 79
- Q4·1:40
Jessica Shepard makes layup (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
·
MIN 91·LA 77
- Q4·1:56
Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound
MIN 89·LA 77
- Q4·2:01
Kelsey Plum misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 89·LA 77
- Q4·2:14
Bridget Carleton makes 15-foot step back jumpshot
MIN 89·LA 77
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:39
Dearica Hamby makes 2-foot layup (Kelsey Plum assists)
·
MIN 87·LA 77
- Q4·2:51
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
MIN 87·LA 75
- Q4·2:55
Kayla McBride misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 87·LA 75
- Q4·3:07
Sparks Full timeout
MIN 87·LA 75
- Q4·3:07
Jessica Shepard enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
MIN 87·LA 75
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
LA
Home
38-80
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-58
48
FG %
50
10-37
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-27
5-6
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-12
28
Assists
24
10
Turnovers
22
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
LA
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
50.8%
35.3%
3PT %
33.0
35.0%
89.7
PPG
86.0
▶91.5
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
20.8
15.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.8