Jul 10, 25sim 97
891
6(H)82
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6CHI
MIN
18-4
8187
CHI
7-13
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hicago Sky held off Minnesota Lynx, 87–81.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
24.8Game score
26
Pts
8
Reb
5
Ast
CHI · top performer
Kamilla Cardoso
C · #10
18.5Game score
17
Pts
15
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN18-4
8187
CHI7-13
MIN18-4CHI7-13
MIN
18-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 34 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +3 | |
| 36 | 26 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | |
| 33 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 38 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| 17 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| Team | 81 | 28 | 22 | 12 | 6 | 9 | ||
| DNP: A. Pili, A. Kosu, K. Samuelson | ||||||||
CHI
7-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +4 | |
| 35 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | +7 | |
| 33 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +6 | |
| 31 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 36 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +6 | |
| 12 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 12 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| Team | 87 | 45 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 17 | ||
| DNP: M. Westbeld, C. Vandersloot, M. Jefferson, H. Van Lith | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
46
22
Ast
17
Season series
MIN wins series 3-1
Jul 6CHI75@MIN80
CHI75@MIN80Jul 12MIN81@CHI87today
MIN81@CHI87todayJul 15MIN91@CHI78
MIN91@CHI78Jul 23CHI68@MIN91
CHI68@MIN91Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ CHI
Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 6:25
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 36 min
26 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
CHIK. Cardoso
CGame leader · 33 min
17 PTS · 15 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
CHI beat MIN 87-81. K. Cardoso led with 17 PTS, 15 REB, 2 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 25 REB · 19 AST
GS 62
Bench(4)
11 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST
GS 5
CHIstarters 91% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 39 REB · 12 AST
GS 57
Bench(3)
8 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
GS 4
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN4th Quarter · 6:25 · 71-75
+13pp→ 44% WP
Rachel Banham · shooting foul
MIN4th Quarter · 2:41 · 79-82
+9pp→ 19% WP
Napheesa Collier · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bridget Carleton assists)
CHI4th Quarter · 1:52 · 79-84
+10pp→ 92% WP
Kayla McBride · misses 23-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 23 | 21 | 23 | 14 | 81 |
| CHI | 29 | 28 | 16 | 14 | 87 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · CHI won 2
23
29
Q1
Smith 4
Reese 11
21
28
Q2
Collier 9
Atkins 12
23
16
Q3
McBride 11
Atkins 7
14
14
Q4
Collier 7
Cardoso 4
MIN
CHI
Shooting comparison
MIN
CHI
39%
30-76
FG
46%
35-76
33%
10-30
3PT
27%
4-15
85%
11-13
FT
81%
13-16
Play-by-play · 398 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 81·CHI 87
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 81·CHI 87
+1pp
- Q4·19.2
Angel Reese defensive rebound
MIN 81·CHI 87
+0.6pp
- Q4·22.1
Kayla McBride misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 81·CHI 87
+8pp
- Q4·24.2
Kia Nurse personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 81·CHI 87
−8pp
- Q4·25.2
Napheesa Collier offensive rebound
MIN 81·CHI 87
- Q4·29.1
Alanna Smith misses 23-foot three point shot
MIN 81·CHI 87
+1pp
- Q4·35.1
Napheesa Collier defensive rebound
MIN 81·CHI 87
- Q4·36.1
Kamilla Cardoso misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 81·CHI 87
+2pp
- Q4·36.1
Kamilla Cardoso makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 81·CHI 87
- Q4·36.1
Courtney Williams personal foul
·
MIN 81·CHI 86
+1pp
- Q4·38.0
Kamilla Cardoso defensive rebound
MIN 81·CHI 86
+0.6pp
- Q4·39.0
Kamilla Cardoso blocks Courtney Williams 's 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
· ·
MIN 81·CHI 86
+2pp
- Q4·42.2
Kia Nurse enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
MIN 81·CHI 86
−4pp
- Q4·42.2
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 81·CHI 86
- Q4·42.2
Rachel Banham makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot
MIN 81·CHI 86
- Q4·55.1
Napheesa Collier loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 81·CHI 84
+6pp
- Q4·55.1
Sky offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 81·CHI 84
+8pp
- Q4·57.1
Rachel Banham misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 81·CHI 84
−7pp
- Q4·1:13
Sky Full timeout
MIN 81·CHI 84
- Q4·1:13
Sky defensive team rebound
MIN 81·CHI 84
+3pp
- Q4·1:17
Napheesa Collier misses 11-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 81·CHI 84
+8pp
- Q4·1:22
Lynx timeout
MIN 81·CHI 84
- Q4·1:22
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
MIN 81·CHI 84
−3pp
- Q4·1:22
Ariel Atkins misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 81·CHI 84
−6pp
- Q4·1:42
Courtney Williams makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
·
MIN 81·CHI 84
−4pp
- Q4·1:50
Alanna Smith offensive rebound
MIN 79·CHI 84
−4pp
- Q4·1:52
Kayla McBride misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 79·CHI 84
+10pp
- Q4·2:03
Angel Reese personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 79·CHI 84
−6pp
- Q4·2:16
Ariel Atkins makes 19-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 79·CHI 84
+7pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
30-76
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-76
39
FG %
46
10-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-15
11-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-16
22
Assists
17
9
Turnovers
17
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
CHI
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
42.9%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
27.1%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
86.3
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.9
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1