Jul 10, 25sim 96
891
6(H)82
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13MIN
MIN
19-4
9178
CHI
7-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 91–78.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
27.7Game score
29
Pts
3
Reb
5
Ast
CHI · top performer
Angel Reese
F · #5
14.6Game score
22
Pts
10
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN19-4
9178
CHI7-14
MIN19-4CHI7-14
MIN
19-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +18 | |
| 25 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +15 | |
| 36 | 29 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +17 | |
| 31 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +15 | |
| 36 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +17 | |
| 12 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 16 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| Team | 91 | 34 | 26 | 14 | 6 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
CHI
7-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -18 | |
| 37 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -20 | |
| 26 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | |
| 31 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -17 | |
| 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 17 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 19 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 24 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| Team | 78 | 34 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 18 | ||
| DNP: M. Westbeld, C. Vandersloot, M. Jefferson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
48
26
Ast
19
Season series
MIN wins series 3-1
Jul 6CHI75@MIN80
CHI75@MIN80Jul 12MIN81@CHI87
MIN81@CHI87Jul 15MIN91@CHI78today
MIN91@CHI78todayJul 23CHI68@MIN91
CHI68@MIN91Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ CHI
Biggest swing: 22pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:14
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 36 min
29 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST
CHIA. Reese
FGame leader · 37 min
22 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
MIN beat CHI 91-78. N. Collier paced them with 29 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. MIN outscored the other side 23-15 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 28 REB · 23 AST
GS 82
Bench(5)
12 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 6
CHIstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 23 REB · 11 AST
GS 32
Bench(4)
25 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCHI2nd Quarter · 2:33 · 36-39
+12pp→ 51% WP
Bridget Carleton · shooting foul
CHI2nd Quarter · 1:29 · 36-46
+15pp→ 73% WP
Rachel Banham · makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
CHI2nd Quarter · 1:14 · 38-46
+22pp→ 67% WP
Courtney Williams · makes 16-foot jumper (Alanna Smith assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 28 | 16 | 24 | 23 | 91 |
| CHI | 24 | 22 | 17 | 15 | 78 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · CHI won 1
28
24
Q1
Collier 10
Reese 7
16
22
Q2
McBride 5
Reese 6
24
17
Q3
Collier 8
Reese 5
23
15
Q4
Collier 7
Reese 6
MIN
CHI
Shooting comparison
MIN
CHI
46%
33-71
FG
48%
29-60
38%
12-32
3PT
44%
7-16
81%
13-16
FT
81%
13-16
Play-by-play · 362 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 91·CHI 78
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 91·CHI 78
- Q4·17.0
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Maria Kliundikova assists)
·
MIN 91·CHI 78
- Q4·38.1
Angel Reese makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 89·CHI 78
- Q4·38.1
Angel Reese makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 89·CHI 77
- Q4·38.1
Jessica Shepard shooting foul
MIN 89·CHI 76
- Q4·55.0
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
MIN 89·CHI 76
- Q4·55.0
Jessica Shepard enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
MIN 89·CHI 76
- Q4·55.0
Diamond Miller enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
MIN 89·CHI 76
- Q4·55.0
Maria Kliundikova enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
MIN 89·CHI 76
- Q4·55.0
shot clock turnover
MIN 89·CHI 76
- Q4·55.0
Lynx offensive team rebound
MIN 89·CHI 76
- Q4·55.0
Courtney Williams misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
MIN 89·CHI 76
- Q4·1:14
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
MIN 89·CHI 76
- Q4·1:18
Angel Reese misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIN 89·CHI 76
- Q4·1:30
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 89·CHI 76
- Q4·1:30
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 88·CHI 76
- Q4·1:30
Hailey Van Lith shooting foul
MIN 87·CHI 76
- Q4·1:35
Alanna Smith offensive rebound
MIN 87·CHI 76
- Q4·1:37
Napheesa Collier misses two point shot
MIN 87·CHI 76
- Q4·1:44
Angel Reese lost ball turnover (Napheesa Collier steals)
·
MIN 87·CHI 76
- Q4·2:00
Napheesa Collier 3 second turnover
MIN 87·CHI 76
- Q4·2:22
Hailey Van Lith makes driving layup
MIN 87·CHI 76
- Q4·2:39
Kayla McBride makes 2-foot two point shot (Napheesa Collier assists)
·
MIN 87·CHI 74
- Q4·2:58
Rachel Banham bad pass (Napheesa Collier steals)
·
MIN 85·CHI 74
−0.5pp
- Q4·3:11
Angel Reese defensive rebound
MIN 85·CHI 74
- Q4·3:13
Bridget Carleton misses free throw 1 of 1
MIN 85·CHI 74
+0.6pp
- Q4·3:13
Hailey Van Lith enters the game for Michaela Onyenwere
·
MIN 85·CHI 74
- Q4·3:13
Sky Full timeout
MIN 85·CHI 74
- Q4·3:13
Kamilla Cardoso shooting foul
MIN 85·CHI 74
−0.7pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
33-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-60
46
FG %
48
12-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-16
13-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-16
26
Assists
19
10
Turnovers
18
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
CHI
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
42.9%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
27.1%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
86.3
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.9
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1