Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+53MIN
MIN

MIN

24-5

11158
LV

LV

14-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBASat, Aug 2FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-1

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx went into Las Vegas Aces and beat them, 111–58. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Kayla McBride

Kayla McBride

G · #21

25.8Game score

24

Pts

2

Reb

5

Ast

LV · top performer

LV
Jewell Loyd

Jewell Loyd

G · #24

6.6Game score

12

Pts

1

Reb

2

Ast

WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
111
58
MIN24-5LV14-14
MIN

MIN

24-5

111
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
B. CarletonB. Carleton★F · #6
25642101+34
A. SmithA. Smith★F · #8
15763110+10
N. CollierN. Collier★F · #24
261835203+38
K. McBrideK. McBride★G · #21
232425300+28
C. WilliamsC. Williams★G · #10
24969210+40
J. ShepardJ. ShepardF · #15
2718142001+46
M. KliundikovaF · #77
14840112+15
A. KosuA. KosuF · #7
10420001+10
Y. AndersonY. AndersonG · #12
12012200+13
N. HiedemanN. HiedemanG · #2
231734012+31
Team111453212410
DNP: D. Miller, K. Samuelson
LV

LV

14-14

58
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. SmithN. Smith★F · #3
17720101-18
K. BellK. Bell★F · #1
22441112-20
A. WilsonA. Wilson★C · #22
221052002-27
C. GrayC. Gray★G · #12
21324101-30
J. YoungJ. Young★G · #0
19613102-26
K. StokesK. StokesC · #41
15331110-20
M. GustafsonM. GustafsonC · #17
22610032-33
J. LoydJ. LoydG · #24
191212113-35
D. EvansD. EvansG · #11
22114002-33
A. NyeA. NyeG · #13
21621010-23
Team5822186715

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

59

FG %

34

32

Ast

18

Season series

MIN wins series 3-1

Jun 18LVLV62@MINMIN76
Jul 25LVLV78@MINMIN109
Aug 2MINMIN111@LVLV58today
Sep 5MINMIN87@LVLV97

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ LV

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 7:39

MINMIN
K. McBride

K. McBride

G

Game leader · 23 min

24 PTS · 2 REB · 5 AST

LVLV
J. Loyd

J. Loyd

G

Game leader · 19 min

12 PTS · 1 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

MIN beat LV 111-58. K. McBride led with 24 PTS, 2 REB, 5 AST. MIN outscored the other side 35-17 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs MIN

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
MINMINstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 21 REB · 24 AST

GS 75

Bench(5)

47 PTS · 24 REB · 8 AST

GS 40

LVLVstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

30 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST

GS 14

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST

GS 15

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
MIN35322519111
LV171616958

Period scoring

MIN won 4 · LV won 0

35
17

Q1

McBride 12

Loyd 7

32
16

Q2

McBride 12

Wilson 6

25
16

Q3

Collier 14

Wilson 4

19
9

Q4

Kliundikova 8

Evans 5

MIN
LV

Shooting comparison

MIN
LV

59%

42-71

FG

34%

23-67

63%

17-27

3PT

31%

8-26

71%

10-14

FT

50%

4-8

Play-by-play · 352 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    MIN 111·LV 58

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    MIN 111·LV 58

  3. Q4·4.7

    shot clock turnover

    MIN 111·LV 58

  4. Q4·26.8

    Jessica Shepard defensive rebound

    MIN 111·LV 58

  5. Q4·29.7

    Aaliyah Nye misses 5-foot pullup jump shot

    MIN 111·LV 58

  6. Q4·47.2

    Natisha Hiedeman makes 29-foot three point jumper (Yvonne Anderson assists)

    ·

    MIN 111·LV 58

  7. Q4·58.2

    shot clock turnover

    MIN 108·LV 58

  8. Q4·58.2

    Aces offensive team rebound

    MIN 108·LV 58

  9. Q4·58.2

    Megan Gustafson misses 24-foot three point jumper

    MIN 108·LV 58

  10. Q4·1:24

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes free throw 2 of 2

    MIN 108·LV 58

  11. Q4·1:24

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes free throw 1 of 2

    MIN 107·LV 58

  12. Q4·1:24

    Kiah Stokes shooting foul

    MIN 106·LV 58

  13. Q4·1:24

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive rebound

    MIN 106·LV 58

  14. Q4·1:24

    Kierstan Bell blocks Anastasiia Olairi Kosu 's 4-foot two point shot

    ·

    MIN 106·LV 58

  15. Q4·1:26

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive rebound

    MIN 106·LV 58

  16. Q4·1:31

    Maria Kliundikova misses 17-foot jumper

    MIN 106·LV 58

  17. Q4·1:48

    Jessica Shepard defensive rebound

    MIN 106·LV 58

  18. Q4·1:51

    Dana Evans misses 16-foot pullup jump shot

    MIN 106·LV 58

  19. Q4·1:57

    Aces Full timeout

    MIN 106·LV 58

  20. Q4·2:12

    Kierstan Bell defensive rebound

    MIN 106·LV 58

  21. Q4·2:13

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses layup

    MIN 106·LV 58

  22. Q4·2:28

    Kiah Stokes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dana Evans assists)

    ·

    MIN 106·LV 58

  23. Q4·2:44

    Natisha Hiedeman makes two point shot (Jessica Shepard assists)

    ·

    MIN 106·LV 55

  24. Q4·2:49

    Kierstan Bell bad pass (Yvonne Anderson steals)

    ·

    MIN 104·LV 55

  25. Q4·2:59

    Maria Kliundikova makes 3-foot two point shot

    MIN 104·LV 55

  26. Q4·3:11

    Maria Kliundikova defensive rebound

    MIN 102·LV 55

  27. Q4·3:13

    Dana Evans misses free throw 2 of 2

    MIN 102·LV 55

  28. Q4·3:13

    Dana Evans makes free throw 1 of 2

    MIN 102·LV 55

  29. Q4·3:13

    Yvonne Anderson shooting foul

    MIN 102·LV 54

  30. Q4·3:24

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu kicked ball turnover

    MIN 102·LV 54

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

LV

Home

42-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

23-67

59

FG %

34

17-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-26

10-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

4-8

32

Assists

18

10

Turnovers

15

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jessica ShepardDAL · F
    ORB%.10999+

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LV vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

105

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    23.5± 12.0low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    17.4± 9.2low
  • Natasha HowardMIN
    15.3± 11.8low

Rebounds

  • Natasha HowardMIN
    7.4± 4.8low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    7.2± 4.5low
  • A'ja WilsonLV
    6.9± 5.6low

Assists

  • Chelsea GrayLV
    6.3± 2.4low
  • Olivia MilesMIN
    5.3± 2.9low
  • Jackie YoungLV
    5.2± 3.1low

Blocks

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    1.9± 1.5low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Nia CoffeyMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Steals

  • Kayla McBrideMIN
    1.8± 1.6low
  • Courtney WilliamsMIN
    1.3± 1.4low
  • Olivia MilesMIN
    1.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

MIN

MIN

league avg

LV

LV

51.7%

FG%

◀

44.9

49.7%

35.3%

3PT %

◀

33.0

34.9%

89.7

PPG

86.0

▶

91.0

21.3

Assists / G

18.0

▶

22.1

15.4

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · wehoop