Aug 2, 25sim 94
8111
17(H)58
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4MIN
MIN
25-5
9187
SEA
16-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 91–87. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Jessica Shepard
F · #15
16.8Game score
13
Pts
13
Reb
4
Ast
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
18.9Game score
23
Pts
6
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN25-5
9187
SEA16-14
MIN25-5SEA16-14
MIN
25-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +13 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 30 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +1 | |
| 32 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 32 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +4 | |
| 16 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 18 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +9 | |
| Team | 91 | 34 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 15 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, A. Kosu, Y. Anderson | ||||||||
SEA
16-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | |
| 33 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | |
| 32 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | |
| 36 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 29 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -9 | |
| 17 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | |
| Team | 87 | 24 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 14 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, B. Sykes | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
49
21
Ast
25
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 28SEA77@MIN82
SEA77@MIN82Jun 12MIN84@SEA94
MIN84@SEA94Aug 6MIN91@SEA87today
MIN91@SEA87todayAug 29SEA93@MIN79
SEA93@MIN79Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 6:38
MINJ. Shepard
FGame leader · 33 min
13 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 32 min
23 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
MIN beat SEA 91-87. J. Shepard led with 13 PTS, 13 REB, 4 AST. SEA outscored the other side 24-15 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 24 REB · 17 AST
GS 55
Bench(3)
26 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
GS 20
SEAstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 21 REB · 25 AST
GS 54
Bench(3)
17 PTS · 3 REB · 0 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN2nd Quarter · 1:15 · 33-37
+13pp→ 39% WP
Maria Kliundikova · steps out of bounds turnover
SEA4th Quarter · 6:38 · 68-68
+20pp→ 53% WP
Erica Wheeler de · fensive rebound
MIN4th Quarter · 4:07 · 73-70
+16pp→ 69% WP
Bridget Carleton · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Courtney Williams assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 20 | 15 | 28 | 28 | 91 |
| SEA | 19 | 24 | 21 | 23 | 87 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · SEA won 1
20
19
Q1
Shepard 6
Wheeler 6
15
24
Q2
McBride 5
Ogwumike 7
28
21
Q3
Carleton 9
Carleton 6
28
23
Q4
Carrington 10
Ogwumike 11
MIN
SEA
Shooting comparison
MIN
SEA
46%
32-70
FG
49%
34-69
41%
9-22
3PT
33%
9-27
69%
18-26
FT
83%
10-12
Play-by-play · 393 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 91·SEA 87
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 91·SEA 87
- Q4·0.6
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
MIN 91·SEA 87
- Q4·1.6
Nneka Ogwumike misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 91·SEA 87
−6pp
- Q4·3.8
DiJonai Carrington personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 91·SEA 87
+5pp
- Q4·5.5
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 91·SEA 87
+0.8pp
- Q4·5.5
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 90·SEA 87
- Q4·5.5
Gabby Williams personal take foul
·
MIN 89·SEA 87
−2pp
- Q4·7.3
Erica Wheeler makes 24-foot three pointer (Ezi Magbegor assists)
·
MIN 89·SEA 87
+0.8pp
- Q4·19.3
Storm timeout
MIN 89·SEA 84
- Q4·19.3
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 89·SEA 84
+0.5pp
- Q4·19.3
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 88·SEA 84
- Q4·19.3
Erica Wheeler personal take foul
MIN 87·SEA 84
−2pp
- Q4·21.1
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 87·SEA 84
- Q4·22.2
Skylar Diggins makes 27-foot three pointer (Erica Wheeler assists)
·
MIN 87·SEA 84
+2pp
- Q4·29.5
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 87·SEA 81
+0.7pp
- Q4·29.5
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 86·SEA 81
- Q4·29.5
Erica Wheeler personal take foul
MIN 85·SEA 81
−3pp
- Q4·30.4
Lynx timeout
MIN 85·SEA 81
- Q4·31.4
Nneka Ogwumike makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gabby Williams assists)
· ·
MIN 85·SEA 81
+3pp
- Q4·32.5
Storm Full timeout
MIN 85·SEA 78
- Q4·33.6
Courtney Williams makes 24-foot three pointer
·
MIN 85·SEA 78
−5pp
- Q4·49.2
Erica Wheeler makes driving layup
MIN 82·SEA 78
+2pp
- Q4·53.8
Courtney Williams makes driving layup
·
MIN 82·SEA 76
−4pp
- Q4·1:09
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 80·SEA 76
- Q4·1:10
Nneka Ogwumike makes 28-foot three point shot (Gabby Williams assists)
· ·
MIN 80·SEA 76
+5pp
- Q4·1:15
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
MIN 80·SEA 73
- Q4·1:18
Alanna Smith misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 80·SEA 73
+2pp
- Q4·1:18
Lynx offensive team rebound
MIN 80·SEA 73
- Q4·1:18
Alanna Smith misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 80·SEA 73
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
32-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-69
46
FG %
49
9-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-27
18-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-12
21
Assists
25
15
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 12 players in cohort- Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN14.3± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
- Olivia MilesMIN1.2± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
SEA
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
34.1%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6