Aug 22, 25sim 94
1495
3(H)60
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9GS
GS
19-18
9081
DAL
9-29
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 90–81.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Veronica Burton
G · #22
25.5Game score
25
Pts
5
Reb
13
Ast
DAL · top performer
Maddy Siegrist
F · #20
16.3Game score
16
Pts
5
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS19-18
9081
DAL9-29
GS19-18DAL9-29
GS
19-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 36 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +11 | |
| 36 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +17 | |
| 34 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +17 | |
| 39 | 25 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +13 | |
| 17 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| Team | 90 | 41 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Thornton, C. Zandalasini | ||||||||
DAL
9-29
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -8 | |
| 19 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 27 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -10 | |
| 34 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 18 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -11 | |
| 29 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 11 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +11 | |
| 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| Team | 81 | 30 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 3 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
41
24
Ast
21
Season series
GS wins series 3-1
Jun 18GS71@DAL80
GS71@DAL80Jul 26DAL76@GS86
DAL76@GS86Aug 24GS90@DAL81today
GS90@DAL81todaySep 5DAL80@GS84
DAL80@GS84Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 1.2
GSV. Burton
GGame leader · 39 min
25 PTS · 5 REB · 13 AST
DALM. Siegrist
FGame leader · 36 min
16 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
GS beat DAL 90-81. V. Burton paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 13 AST. DAL outscored the other side 26-13 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 35 REB · 22 AST
GS 68
Bench(3)
14 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
GS 12
DALstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 16 REB · 15 AST
GS 49
Bench(4)
27 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS3rd Quarter · 7:15 · 43-43
+8pp→ 42% WP
Veronica Burton · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Janelle Salaun assists)
GS3rd Quarter · 4:55 · 49-47
+9pp→ 52% WP
Iliana Rupert · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
GS3rd Quarter · 1.2 · 60-55
+10pp→ 78% WP
Veronica Burton · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 23 | 13 | 25 | 29 | 90 |
| DAL | 12 | 26 | 17 | 26 | 81 |
Period scoring
GS won 3 · DAL won 1
23
12
Q1
Charles 7
Siegrist 4
13
26
Q2
Rupert 5
Hines-Allen 9
25
17
Q3
Burton 10
Bueckers 4
29
26
Q4
Burton 11
Martin 15
GS
DAL
Shooting comparison
GS
DAL
45%
28-62
FG
41%
31-75
42%
16-38
3PT
32%
9-28
100%
18-18
FT
71%
10-14
Play-by-play · 367 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 90·DAL 81
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 90·DAL 81
- Q4·3.2
Wings Full timeout
GS 90·DAL 81
- Q4·3.2
Kaila Charles makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 90·DAL 81
- Q4·3.2
Kaila Charles makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 89·DAL 81
- Q4·3.2
Paige Bueckers personal take foul
GS 88·DAL 81
- Q4·5.1
Kaila Charles defensive rebound
GS 88·DAL 81
- Q4·7.6
Myisha Hines-Allen misses layup
GS 88·DAL 81
- Q4·8.1
Myisha Hines-Allen offensive rebound
GS 88·DAL 81
- Q4·12.0
Haley Jones misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 88·DAL 81
- Q4·13.7
Paige Bueckers offensive rebound
GS 88·DAL 81
- Q4·16.7
Veronica Burton blocks Paige Bueckers 's 8-foot driving layup
·
GS 88·DAL 81
−0.8pp
- Q4·21.5
Veronica Burton bad pass (Luisa Geiselsoder steals)
·
GS 88·DAL 81
+0.7pp
- Q4·26.9
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 88·DAL 81
- Q4·31.4
Haley Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)
·
GS 88·DAL 81
+0.5pp
- Q4·34.7
Wings timeout
GS 88·DAL 78
- Q4·34.7
(00:34.7) [Golden State Valkyries] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Golden State Valkyries] charged with a timeout
GS 88·DAL 78
- Q4·34.7
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 88·DAL 78
- Q4·34.7
Temi Fagbenle out of bounds lost ball turnover
GS 88·DAL 78
- Q4·38.3
Temi Fagbenle offensive rebound
GS 88·DAL 78
- Q4·42.4
Iliana Rupert misses 22-foot three point jumper
GS 88·DAL 78
- Q4·55.2
Myisha Hines-Allen personal foul
GS 88·DAL 78
- Q4·1:06
Paige Bueckers makes 6-foot two point shot
GS 88·DAL 78
- Q4·1:17
Kate Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
·
GS 88·DAL 76
−0.8pp
- Q4·1:36
Luisa Geiselsoder bad pass (Kate Martin steals)
·
GS 85·DAL 76
−1pp
- Q4·1:48
Luisa Geiselsoder defensive rebound
GS 85·DAL 76
- Q4·1:51
Kaila Charles misses 25-foot three point jumper
GS 85·DAL 76
- Q4·2:07
Paige Bueckers makes 24-foot three pointer
GS 85·DAL 76
+1pp
- Q4·2:16
Veronica Burton makes 24-foot three pointer
GS 85·DAL 73
−2pp
- Q4·2:28
Haley Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 82·DAL 73
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
28-62
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-75
45
FG %
41
16-38
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-28
18-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-14
24
Assists
21
12
Turnovers
3
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Kiah StokesGS4.8± 4.1low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Alanna SmithDAL1.0± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
DAL
41.3%
FG%
44.7
▶46.6%
36.1%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
86.4
PPG
85.4
▶88.9
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
10.3