Jun 27, 25sim 92
896
20(H)92
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8PHX
MIN
17-3
7179
PHX
14-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Minnesota Lynx, 79–71.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
15.4Game score
18
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
22.3Game score
29
Pts
8
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN17-3
7179
PHX14-6
MIN17-3PHX14-6
MIN
17-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 29 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 36 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | |
| 33 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 32 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 | |
| 11 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 13 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| Team | 71 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 16 | ||
| DNP: A. Pili, A. Kosu, K. Samuelson | ||||||||
PHX
14-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +8 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 28 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 16 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 29 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +7 | |
| 30 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +14 | |
| 26 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +13 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 79 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 9 | ||
| DNP: S. Sabally, K. Copper, L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
47
17
Ast
17
Playoff series
PHX wins series 3-1
Sep 21PHX69@MIN82
PHX69@MIN82Sep 23PHX89@MIN83
PHX89@MIN83Sep 27MIN76@PHX84
MIN76@PHX84Sep 29MIN81@PHX86
MIN81@PHX86Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 3:44
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 36 min
18 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 34 min
29 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
PHX beat MIN 79-71. A. Thomas paced them with 29 PTS, 8 REB, 5 AST. PHX outscored the other side 27-14 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 26 REB · 12 AST
GS 39
Bench(4)
14 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST
GS 7
PHXstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST
GS 51
Bench(4)
13 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX4th Quarter · 4:05 · 67-64
+14pp→ 27% WP
Courtney Williams · misses two point shot
PHX4th Quarter · 3:44 · 69-66
+16pp→ 37% WP
Kayla McBride · shooting foul
PHX4th Quarter · 2:18 · 71-73
+12pp→ 65% WP
Alyssa Thomas · makes two point shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 18 | 20 | 14 | 71 |
| PHX | 15 | 25 | 12 | 27 | 79 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · PHX won 2
19
15
Q1
Williams 10
Thomas 9
18
25
Q2
Shepard 6
Laksa 8
20
12
Q3
Collier 8
Makani 4
14
27
Q4
Collier 6
Thomas 12
MIN
PHX
Shooting comparison
MIN
PHX
43%
30-70
FG
47%
34-73
26%
6-23
3PT
6%
1-16
100%
5-5
FT
100%
10-10
Play-by-play · 365 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 71·PHX 79
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 71·PHX 79
- Q4·20.0
shot clock turnover
MIN 71·PHX 79
- Q4·30.1
Bridget Carleton out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIN 71·PHX 79
- Q4·30.1
Lynx timeout
MIN 71·PHX 79
- Q4·30.1
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 71·PHX 79
- Q4·30.1
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 71·PHX 78
- Q4·30.1
Kayla McBride personal take foul
MIN 71·PHX 77
- Q4·31.1
Alanna Smith personal take foul
MIN 71·PHX 77
+1pp
- Q4·32.0
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
MIN 71·PHX 77
+0.7pp
- Q4·34.1
Napheesa Collier misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIN 71·PHX 77
+2pp
- Q4·38.0
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 71·PHX 77
- Q4·38.0
Alyssa Thomas makes 14-foot two point shot
MIN 71·PHX 77
+2pp
- Q4·41.0
DeWanna Bonner offensive rebound
MIN 71·PHX 75
+5pp
- Q4·51.1
Sami Whitcomb misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIN 71·PHX 75
−3pp
- Q4·1:02
Alanna Smith out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·PHX 75
+7pp
- Q4·1:18
Napheesa Collier defensive rebound
MIN 71·PHX 75
−1pp
- Q4·1:20
Monique Akoa Makani misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 71·PHX 75
−4pp
- Q4·1:25
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
MIN 71·PHX 75
+2pp
- Q4·1:29
Napheesa Collier misses 11-foot two point shot
MIN 71·PHX 75
+5pp
- Q4·1:41
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 71·PHX 75
- Q4·1:41
Alyssa Thomas makes 6-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·PHX 75
+8pp
- Q4·1:50
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
MIN 71·PHX 73
+3pp
- Q4·1:53
Bridget Carleton misses 18-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·PHX 73
+8pp
- Q4·2:18
Alyssa Thomas makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·PHX 73
+12pp
- Q4·2:23
Napheesa Collier bad pass (Alyssa Thomas steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 71·PHX 71
+9pp
- Q4·2:40
Kathryn Westbeld makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·PHX 71
+10pp
- Q4·2:41
Kathryn Westbeld offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·PHX 69
+7pp
- Q4·2:42
Sami Whitcomb misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·PHX 69
−8pp
- Q4·2:56
Napheesa Collier makes driving layup (Courtney Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIN 71·PHX 69
−9pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
30-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-73
43
FG %
47
6-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
1-16
5-5
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-10
17
Assists
17
16
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 10 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.9%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
PHX
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9