Jun 27, 25sim 91
896
20(H)92
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+16ATL
ATL
22-12
7963
GS
18-16
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 79–63.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Brionna Jones
F · #24
13.5Game score
13
Pts
9
Reb
2
Ast
GS · top performer
Veronica Burton
G · #22
14.6Game score
16
Pts
1
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL22-12
7963
GS18-16
ATL22-12GS18-16
ATL
22-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| 26 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 32 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +5 | |
| 18 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +19 | |
| 37 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +23 | |
| 14 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | |
| 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +8 | |
| 29 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| Team | 79 | 38 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 9 | ||
GS
18-16
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12 | |
| 29 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -21 | |
| 14 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -10 | |
| 28 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 31 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 14 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -7 | |
| 12 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| Team | 63 | 27 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 8 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
35
24
Ast
14
Season series
ATL wins series 2-1
Jul 7GS81@ATL90
GS81@ATL90Jul 29GS77@ATL75
GS77@ATL75Aug 18ATL79@GS63today
ATL79@GS63todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:42
ATLB. Jones
FGame leader · 23 min
13 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
GSV. Burton
GGame leader · 31 min
16 PTS · 1 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
ATL beat GS 79-63. B. Jones led with 13 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST. ATL outscored the other side 28-17 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST
GS 47
Bench(6)
22 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST
GS 19
GSstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
44 PTS · 13 REB · 11 AST
GS 27
Bench(6)
19 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST
GS 16
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS2nd Quarter · 3.3 · 25-25
+8pp→ 42% WP
Iliana Rupert · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
ATL3rd Quarter · 4:42 · 40-36
+9pp→ 70% WP
Allisha Gray · makes 24-foot three point shot (Nia Coffey assists)
ATL3rd Quarter · 4:16 · 43-39
+8pp→ 70% WP
Allisha Gray · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brittney Griner assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 12 | 13 | 28 | 26 | 79 |
| GS | 15 | 10 | 17 | 21 | 63 |
Period scoring
ATL won 3 · GS won 1
12
15
Q1
Coffey 4
Burton 5
13
10
Q2
Paopao 4
Salaun 3
28
17
Q3
Gray 12
Burton 9
26
21
Q4
Howard 8
Amihere 7
ATL
GS
Shooting comparison
ATL
GS
41%
28-68
FG
35%
21-60
26%
9-35
3PT
24%
7-29
88%
14-16
FT
88%
14-16
Play-by-play · 365 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 79·GS 63
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 79·GS 63
- Q4·6.9
Kate Martin makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 79·GS 63
- Q4·15.9
Laeticia Amihere defensive rebound
ATL 79·GS 60
- Q4·18.4
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 79·GS 60
- Q4·40.6
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
ATL 79·GS 60
- Q4·42.2
Laeticia Amihere misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 79·GS 60
- Q4·42.2
Laeticia Amihere makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 79·GS 60
- Q4·42.2
Sika Kone shooting foul
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·59.6
shot clock turnover
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:09
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:09
Laeticia Amihere blocks Taylor Thierry 's 5-foot driving layup
·
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:21
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough defensive rebound
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:24
Kate Martin misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:39
Kaitlyn Chen defensive rebound
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:44
Te-Hina Paopao misses 26-foot three point jumper
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:52
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Maya Caldwell
·
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:52
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:52
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:52
Sika Kone enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:52
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:52
Kaitlyn Chen enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:52
Kaila Charles enters the game for Cecilia Zandalasini
·
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:52
Dream Full timeout
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:52
Laeticia Amihere makes layup
ATL 79·GS 59
- Q4·1:52
Laeticia Amihere offensive rebound
ATL 79·GS 57
- Q4·1:55
Veronica Burton misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 79·GS 57
- Q4·2:18
Rhyne Howard makes two point shot (Maya Caldwell assists)
·
ATL 79·GS 57
- Q4·2:24
Kate Martin lost ball turnover (Maya Caldwell steals)
·
ATL 77·GS 57
- Q4·2:46
Naz Hillmon makes layup (Brionna Jones assists)
·
ATL 77·GS 57
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
GS
Home
28-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
21-60
41
FG %
35
9-35
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-29
14-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-16
24
Assists
14
9
Turnovers
8
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS0.9± 2.4low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
GS
43.5%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.3%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶36.1%
83.5
PPG
86.0
▶86.4
19.5
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1