Jul 27, 25sim 98
1188
16(H)72
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+15LV
ATL
13-10
7287
LV
12-11
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Atlanta Dream, 87–72.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
14.8Game score
24
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
23.3Game score
24
Pts
12
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL13-10
7287
LV12-11
ATL13-10LV12-11
ATL
13-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -22 | |
| 25 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 36 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -15 | |
| 37 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -12 | |
| 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -18 | |
| 23 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| Team | 72 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 19 | ||
| DNP: R. Howard | ||||||||
LV
12-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +15 | |
| 31 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +8 | |
| 30 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +15 | |
| 29 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +21 | |
| 24 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +17 | |
| 9 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +7 | |
| 18 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| Team | 87 | 34 | 20 | 13 | 4 | 11 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
45
15
Ast
20
Season series
LV wins series 3-0
Jul 23ATL72@LV87today
ATL72@LV87todayAug 20ATL72@LV74
ATL72@LV74Aug 27LV81@ATL75
LV81@ATL75Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 26pp · 1st Quarter · 0.0
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 36 min
24 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 31 min
24 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
LV beat ATL 87-72. A. Wilson led with 24 PTS, 12 REB, 5 AST. LV outscored the other side 25-12 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST
GS 31
Bench(5)
18 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
GS 6
LVstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST
GS 57
Bench(5)
22 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV2nd Quarter · 7:40 · 29-29
+22pp→ 54% WP
Allisha Gray · makes 10-foot jumper (Jordin Canada assists)
ATL1st Quarter · 10:00 · 0-0
+20pp→ 47% WP
Brittney Griner · vs. A'ja Wilson (Allisha Gray gains possession)
LV3rd Quarter · 10:00 · 39-45
+20pp→ 73% WP
NaLyssa Smith · enters the game for Megan Gustafson
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 27 | 12 | 20 | 13 | 72 |
| LV | 20 | 25 | 22 | 20 | 87 |
Period scoring
ATL won 1 · LV won 3
27
20
Q1
Gray 12
Smith 5
12
25
Q2
Walker-Kimbrough 2
Evans 11
20
22
Q3
Gray 8
Smith 45
13
20
Q4
Paopao 5
Wilson 8
ATL
LV
Shooting comparison
ATL
LV
38%
25-65
FG
45%
31-69
33%
9-27
3PT
30%
6-20
76%
13-17
FT
90%
19-21
Play-by-play · 405 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 72·LV 87
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 72·LV 87
- Q4·2.0
shot clock turnover
ATL 72·LV 87
- Q4·24.1
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
ATL 72·LV 87
- Q4·27.1
Maya Caldwell misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 72·LV 87
- Q4·47.2
Jordin Canada defensive rebound
ATL 72·LV 87
- Q4·49.1
Aaliyah Nye misses layup
ATL 72·LV 87
- Q4·1:05
Jordin Canada makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 72·LV 87
- Q4·1:05
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
ATL 71·LV 87
- Q4·1:05
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Shatori Walker-Kimbrough
·
ATL 71·LV 87
- Q4·1:05
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Allisha Gray
· ·
ATL 71·LV 87
- Q4·1:05
Nia Coffey enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
ATL 71·LV 87
- Q4·1:05
Kierstan Bell enters the game for Jewell Loyd
·
ATL 71·LV 87
- Q4·1:05
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for A'ja Wilson
·
ATL 71·LV 87
- Q4·1:05
Dana Evans enters the game for Chelsea Gray
· ·
ATL 71·LV 87
- Q4·1:05
Kiah Stokes enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
ATL 71·LV 87
- Q4·1:05
Megan Gustafson enters the game for Jackie Young
·
ATL 71·LV 87
- Q4·1:05
Jordin Canada makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 71·LV 87
- Q4·1:05
NaLyssa Smith shooting foul
ATL 70·LV 87
- Q4·1:19
Jackie Young makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
ATL 70·LV 87
- Q4·1:32
Brittney Griner makes 5-foot two point shot (Allisha Gray assists)
· ·
ATL 70·LV 85
- Q4·1:53
A'ja Wilson makes 19-foot jumper (Jackie Young assists)
·
ATL 68·LV 85
- Q4·2:08
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
ATL 68·LV 83
- Q4·2:12
Brittney Griner misses 6-foot two point shot
ATL 68·LV 83
- Q4·2:26
Dream Full timeout
ATL 68·LV 83
- Q4·2:30
A'ja Wilson makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Chelsea Gray assists)
· ·
ATL 68·LV 83
- Q4·2:42
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
ATL 68·LV 81
- Q4·2:46
Jordin Canada misses 26-foot three point jumper
ATL 68·LV 81
- Q4·3:04
Dream defensive team rebound
ATL 68·LV 81
- Q4·3:06
A'ja Wilson misses 24-foot three point jumper
ATL 68·LV 81
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
LV
Home
25-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-69
38
FG %
45
9-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-20
13-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-21
15
Assists
20
19
Turnovers
11
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
LV
43.5%
FG%
44.9
▶49.7%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.9%
83.5
PPG
86.0
▶91.0
19.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6