Aug 17, 25sim 92
599
18(H)93
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+31CON
GS
11-13
6495
CON
4-20
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
onnecticut Sun held off Golden State Valkyries, 95–64. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Iliana Rupert
C · #12
9.3Game score
13
Pts
4
Reb
1
Ast
CON · top performer
Tina Charles
C · #31
24.8Game score
24
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS11-13
6495
CON4-20
GS11-13CON4-20
GS
11-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 15 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -19 | |
| 25 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -19 | |
| 21 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -24 | |
| 21 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -20 | |
| 22 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -17 | |
| 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -9 | |
| 22 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -15 | |
| 21 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -20 | |
| Team | 64 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 22 | ||
| DNP: K. Thornton, M. Billings | ||||||||
CON
4-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +15 | |
| 19 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +39 | |
| 21 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| 20 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| 24 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +24 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 15 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +11 | |
| 19 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +20 | |
| 21 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| Team | 95 | 32 | 21 | 14 | 6 | 16 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
34
FG %
53
15
Ast
21
Season series
GS wins series 2-1
Jun 23CON63@GS87
CON63@GS87Jul 27GS64@CON95today
GS64@CON95todayAug 12CON57@GS74
CON57@GS74Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 24pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:47
GSI. Rupert
CGame leader · 22 min
13 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
CONT. Charles
CGame leader · 19 min
24 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
CON beat GS 95-64. T. Charles led with 24 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST. CON outscored the other side 26-16 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 47% of ptsStarters(5)
30 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST
GS 14
Bench(5)
34 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST
GS 17
CONstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 23 REB · 12 AST
GS 58
Bench(7)
28 PTS · 9 REB · 9 AST
GS 25
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS2nd Quarter · 9:47 · 15-23
+13pp→ 38% WP
Olivia Nelson-Ododa · shooting foul
GS2nd Quarter · 9:47 · 15-23
+24pp→ 36% WP
Carla Leite · misses free throw 1 of 2
CON2nd Quarter · 6:02 · 18-34
+19pp→ 88% WP
Rayah Marshall · enters the game for Tina Charles
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 15 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 64 |
| CON | 23 | 26 | 26 | 20 | 95 |
Period scoring
GS won 0 · CON won 4
15
23
Q1
Salaun 5
Hartley 7
18
26
Q2
Martin 6
Marshall 11
16
26
Q3
Rupert 7
Charles 11
15
20
Q4
Leite 5
Sheldon 5
GS
CON
Shooting comparison
GS
CON
34%
20-59
FG
53%
35-66
28%
9-32
3PT
41%
12-29
65%
15-23
FT
93%
13-14
Play-by-play · 388 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 64·CON 95
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 64·CON 95
- Q4·15.1
Kate Martin lost ball turnover (Leila Lacan steals)
·
GS 64·CON 95
- Q4·30.2
Lindsay Allen makes 26-foot three pointer
GS 64·CON 95
- Q4·44.1
Rayah Marshall defensive rebound
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·47.1
Iliana Rupert misses 26-foot three point jumper
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·57.1
Kate Martin defensive rebound
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·59.0
Iliana Rupert blocks Aneesah Morrow's driving floating jump shot
·
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·1:10
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·1:11
Kate Martin misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·1:32
Carla Leite defensive rebound
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·1:34
Laeticia Amihere blocks Aneesah Morrow 's 11-foot two point shot
·
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·1:46
Rayah Marshall defensive rebound
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·1:47
Laeticia Amihere misses free throw 1 of 1
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·1:47
Official timeout
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·1:47
Aneesah Morrow shooting foul
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·1:47
Laeticia Amihere makes two point shot
GS 64·CON 92
- Q4·1:51
Aneesah Morrow bad pass (Laeticia Amihere steals)
·
GS 62·CON 92
- Q4·2:07
Kaitlyn Chen bad pass (Aneesah Morrow steals)
·
GS 62·CON 92
- Q4·2:17
Kaitlyn Chen defensive rebound
GS 62·CON 92
- Q4·2:18
Leila Lacan misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 62·CON 92
- Q4·2:33
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
GS 62·CON 92
- Q4·2:33
Carla Leite misses 22-foot three point jumper
GS 62·CON 92
- Q4·2:49
Kaitlyn Chen defensive rebound
GS 62·CON 92
- Q4·2:52
Migna Toure misses 14-foot jumper
GS 62·CON 92
- Q4·3:09
Iliana Rupert out of bounds bad pass turnover
GS 62·CON 92
- Q4·3:09
Iliana Rupert defensive rebound
GS 62·CON 92
- Q4·3:12
Rayah Marshall misses 12-foot pullup jump shot
GS 62·CON 92
- Q4·3:24
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
GS 62·CON 92
- Q4·3:25
Aneesah Morrow blocks Laeticia Amihere 's 8-foot driving layup
·
GS 62·CON 92
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
CON
Home
20-59
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-66
34
FG %
53
9-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-29
15-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-14
15
Assists
21
22
Turnovers
16
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Gabby WilliamsGS2.9± 2.4low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Aaliyah EdwardsCON1.0± 1.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
CON
41.3%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
86.4
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
19.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8