Jul 28, 25sim 98
14101
18(H)85
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8IND
IND
12-10
8577
CON
3-19
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 85–77.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Natasha Howard
F · #6
19.6Game score
18
Pts
13
Reb
0
Ast
CON · top performer
Tina Charles
C · #31
17.2Game score
21
Pts
11
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND12-10
8577
CON3-19
IND12-10CON3-19
IND
12-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 18 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +4 | |
| 33 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +11 | |
| 33 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 14 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +21 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 26 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| Team | 85 | 37 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner | ||||||||
CON
3-19
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -6 | |
| 20 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 29 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
| 27 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -12 | |
| 29 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 23 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 24 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
| Team | 77 | 40 | 16 | 10 | 1 | 8 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall, M. Mabrey | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
36
22
Ast
16
Season series
IND wins series 3-1
May 30CON85@IND83
CON85@IND83Jun 17CON71@IND88
CON71@IND88Jul 16IND85@CON77today
IND85@CON77todayAug 17IND99@CON93
IND99@CON93Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 8:52
INDN. Howard
FGame leader · 31 min
18 PTS · 13 REB · 0 AST
CONT. Charles
CGame leader · 34 min
21 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
IND beat CON 85-77. N. Howard led with 18 PTS, 13 REB, 0 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 29 REB · 16 AST
GS 57
Bench(5)
17 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
GS 15
CONstarters 61% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 25 REB · 12 AST
GS 32
Bench(4)
30 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON4th Quarter · 8:52 · 64-63
+13pp→ 48% WP
Sydney Colson · shooting foul
IND4th Quarter · 7:07 · 68-67
+10pp→ 76% WP
Aneesah Morrow · shooting foul
CON4th Quarter · 6:19 · 70-67
+11pp→ 38% WP
Aliyah Boston · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 29 | 15 | 18 | 23 | 85 |
| CON | 28 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 77 |
Period scoring
IND won 3 · CON won 0
29
28
Q1
Howard 10
Charles 11
15
14
Q2
Mitchell 6
Hartley 6
18
18
Q3
Mitchell 6
Lacan 18
23
17
Q4
Clark 9
Lacan 9
IND
CON
Shooting comparison
IND
CON
49%
29-59
FG
36%
30-83
26%
5-19
3PT
20%
5-25
76%
22-29
FT
75%
12-16
Play-by-play · 404 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 85·CON 77
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 85·CON 77
- Q4·11.0
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
IND 85·CON 77
- Q4·14.1
Kelsey Mitchell misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 85·CON 77
- Q4·25.1
Makayla Timpson offensive rebound
IND 85·CON 77
−0.6pp
- Q4·27.1
Kelsey Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 85·CON 77
+0.7pp
- Q4·27.1
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
IND 85·CON 77
- Q4·27.1
Damiris Dantas enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 85·CON 77
- Q4·27.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 85·CON 77
- Q4·27.1
Bria Hartley personal take foul
IND 84·CON 77
- Q4·29.1
Lexie Hull enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
IND 84·CON 77
- Q4·29.1
Fever Full timeout
IND 84·CON 77
- Q4·29.1
Leila Lacan makes driving layup
IND 84·CON 77
- Q4·39.1
Sydney Colson enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
IND 84·CON 75
- Q4·39.1
Sun Full timeout
IND 84·CON 75
- Q4·39.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes layup (Caitlin Clark assists)
·
IND 84·CON 75
−0.9pp
- Q4·59.1
Caitlin Clark defensive rebound
IND 82·CON 75
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:02
Bria Hartley misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 82·CON 75
−2pp
- Q4·1:17
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 82·CON 75
+2pp
- Q4·1:17
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 81·CON 75
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:17
Saniya Rivers personal foul
IND 80·CON 75
−5pp
- Q4·1:24
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
IND 80·CON 75
−1pp
- Q4·1:28
Tina Charles misses 18-foot jumper
IND 80·CON 75
−4pp
- Q4·1:43
Sun defensive team rebound
IND 80·CON 75
+1pp
- Q4·1:46
Caitlin Clark misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 80·CON 75
+3pp
- Q4·1:59
Leila Lacan makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 80·CON 75
−3pp
- Q4·1:59
Aliyah Boston enters the game for Damiris Dantas
·
IND 80·CON 74
- Q4·1:59
Leila Lacan makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 80·CON 74
+1pp
- Q4·1:59
Damiris Dantas personal foulBIG MOMENT
IND 80·CON 73
+5pp
- Q4·2:06
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
IND 80·CON 73
+0.7pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
CON
Home
29-59
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-83
49
FG %
36
5-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-25
22-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-16
22
Assists
16
12
Turnovers
8
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Aliyah BostonIND13.9± 11.6low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
CON
45.4%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
32.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
92.9
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8