Jul 30, 25sim 97
1789
6(H)74
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1GS
GS
13-13
6867
WSH
13-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 68–67. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Veronica Burton
G · #22
12.9Game score
10
Pts
7
Reb
10
Ast
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
12.5Game score
16
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS13-13
6867
WSH13-14
GS13-13WSH13-14
GS
13-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | |
| 27 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 33 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +7 | |
| 20 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 30 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | |
| 13 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 23 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 | |
| 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| Team | 68 | 38 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 14 | ||
| DNP: K. Thornton, M. Billings, C. Zandalasini | ||||||||
WSH
13-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 32 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | |
| 27 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -11 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 26 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 32 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +11 | |
| 18 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 22 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| Team | 67 | 30 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 6 | ||
| DNP: A. Edwards, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
38
21
Ast
19
Season series
GS wins series 4-0
May 22WSH74@GS76
WSH74@GS76Jul 31GS68@WSH67today
GS68@WSH67todayAug 13GS88@WSH83
GS88@WSH83Aug 31WSH62@GS99
WSH62@GS99Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 1:52
GSV. Burton
GGame leader · 30 min
10 PTS · 7 REB · 10 AST
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 32 min
16 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
GS beat WSH 68-67. V. Burton led with 10 PTS, 7 REB, 10 AST. GS outscored the other side 30-20 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
40 PTS · 26 REB · 17 AST
GS 34
Bench(4)
28 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST
GS 16
WSHstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 24 REB · 14 AST
GS 41
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
GS 11
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH4th Quarter · 7:20 · 64-65
+13pp→ 54% WP
Emily Engstler · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lucy Olsen assists)
WSH4th Quarter · 1:52 · 66-65
+15pp→ 43% WP
Iliana Rupert · traveling
WSH4th Quarter · 1:28 · 66-65
+15pp→ 44% WP
Kate Martin · steps out of bounds turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 30 | 16 | 16 | 6 | 68 |
| WSH | 20 | 14 | 21 | 12 | 67 |
Period scoring
GS won 2 · WSH won 2
30
20
Q1
Rupert 9
Sutton 5
16
14
Q2
Martin 6
Melbourne 8
16
21
Q3
Amihere 5
Citron 10
6
12
Q4
Martin 2
Engstler 5
GS
WSH
Shooting comparison
GS
WSH
39%
22-57
FG
38%
26-68
42%
11-26
3PT
29%
7-24
87%
13-15
FT
67%
8-12
Play-by-play · 373 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 68·WSH 67
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 68·WSH 67
- Q4·0.1
Mystics offensive team rebound
GS 68·WSH 67
- Q4·0.6
Brittney Sykes misses driving floating jump shot
GS 68·WSH 67
−2pp
- Q4·2.9
Mystics timeout
GS 68·WSH 67
−1pp
- Q4·4.8
Janelle Salaun bad pass (Shakira Austin steals)
·
GS 68·WSH 67
−0.5pp
- Q4·9.1
Temi Fagbenle offensive rebound
GS 68·WSH 67
−4pp
- Q4·11.4
Janelle Salaun misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
GS 68·WSH 67
- Q4·14.0
Golden State Valkyries Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
GS 68·WSH 67
−14pp
- Q4·35.1
Iliana Rupert defensive rebound
GS 68·WSH 67
−4pp
- Q4·37.3
Emily Engstler misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 68·WSH 67
−12pp
- Q4·42.7
Mystics Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
GS 68·WSH 67
−6pp
- Q4·1:00
Janelle Salaun makes driving layup (Veronica Burton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 68·WSH 67
−8pp
- Q4·1:15
Shakira Austin makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 66·WSH 67
+9pp
- Q4·1:17
Shakira Austin offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 66·WSH 65
+12pp
- Q4·1:18
Sug Sutton misses 9-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
GS 66·WSH 65
−11pp
- Q4·1:28
Mystics Full timeout
GS 66·WSH 65
- Q4·1:28
Kate Martin steps out of bounds turnoverBIG MOMENT
GS 66·WSH 65
+14pp
- Q4·1:29
Veronica Burton offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 66·WSH 65
−11pp
- Q4·1:29
Sonia Citron blocks Kate Martin 's 6-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
GS 66·WSH 65
+11pp
- Q4·1:35
Kate Martin defensive rebound
GS 66·WSH 65
−4pp
- Q4·1:37
Brittney Sykes misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 66·WSH 65
−10pp
- Q4·1:52
Emily Engstler enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
·
GS 66·WSH 65
- Q4·1:52
Iliana Rupert travelingBIG MOMENT
GS 66·WSH 65
+14pp
- Q4·2:01
Sug Sutton personal foul
GS 66·WSH 65
−4pp
- Q4·2:17
Kiki Iriafen lost ball turnover (Iliana Rupert steals)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 66·WSH 65
−11pp
- Q4·2:26
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
GS 66·WSH 65
+3pp
- Q4·2:28
Temi Fagbenle misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 66·WSH 65
+7pp
- Q4·2:45
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
GS 66·WSH 65
−11pp
- Q4·2:58
Brittney Sykes enters the game for Jade Melbourne
·
GS 66·WSH 65
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
22-57
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-68
39
FG %
38
11-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-24
13-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
8-12
21
Assists
19
14
Turnovers
6
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
- Gabby WilliamsGS2.9± 2.4low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
WSH
41.3%
FG%
44.7
▶45.7%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
28.0%
86.4
PPG
◀
85.4
83.4
19.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.7
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6