Aug 10, 25sim 98
659
129689(H)72
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+15LV
LV
14-13
8974
LA
11-15
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 89–74.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
31.8Game score
34
Pts
10
Reb
4
Ast
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
14.3Game score
22
Pts
5
Reb
8
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV14-13
8974
LA11-15
LV14-13LA11-15
LV
14-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +16 | |
| 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 30 | 34 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +26 | |
| 35 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +21 | |
| 34 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +28 | |
| 24 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 19 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| Team | 89 | 36 | 25 | 13 | 6 | 13 | ||
LA
11-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -22 | |
| 28 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -24 | |
| 34 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11 | |
| 37 | 22 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -19 | |
| 24 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -16 | |
| 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
| 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 26 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| Team | 74 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 19 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, S. Barker | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
38
25
Ast
16
Season series
LV wins series 3-1
May 31LA81@LV96
LA81@LV96Jun 12LA97@LV89
LA97@LV89Jul 30LV89@LA74today
LV89@LA74todaySep 12LV103@LA75
LV103@LA75Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:58
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 30 min30+ point game
34 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
LAK. Plum
GGame leader · 37 min
22 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
LV beat LA 89-74. A. Wilson paced them with 34 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. LV outscored the other side 31-18 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 31 REB · 24 AST
GS 69
Bench(5)
21 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
GS 10
LAstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 24 REB · 12 AST
GS 24
Bench(3)
22 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA2nd Quarter · 8:58 · 31-20
+8pp→ 16% WP
Rickea Jackson · misses layup
LV3rd Quarter · 10:00 · 48-34
+7pp→ 92% WP
Dearica Hamby · enters the game for Cameron Brink
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 31 | 17 | 22 | 19 | 89 |
| LA | 18 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 74 |
Period scoring
LV won 3 · LA won 1
31
18
Q1
Wilson 17
Hamby 5
17
16
Q2
Wilson 6
Hamby 6
22
19
Q3
Evans 8
Hamby 16
19
21
Q4
Wilson 7
Burrell 7
LV
LA
Shooting comparison
LV
LA
46%
36-78
FG
38%
26-69
28%
9-32
3PT
17%
4-24
100%
8-8
FT
95%
18-19
Play-by-play · 396 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 89·LA 74
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 89·LA 74
- Q4·20.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 89·LA 74
- Q4·20.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 89·LA 73
- Q4·20.1
Kiah Stokes personal foul
LV 89·LA 72
- Q4·26.1
Rickea Jackson defensive rebound
LV 89·LA 72
- Q4·29.1
Kierstan Bell misses 19-foot jumper
LV 89·LA 72
- Q4·44.0
Rae Burrell makes driving layup (Kelsey Plum assists)
·
LV 89·LA 72
- Q4·51.2
Kelsey Plum defensive rebound
LV 89·LA 70
- Q4·55.1
Kierstan Bell misses 26-foot three point jumper
LV 89·LA 70
- Q4·1:12
Cameron Brink makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 89·LA 70
- Q4·1:12
Kiah Stokes enters the game for A'ja Wilson
·
LV 89·LA 69
- Q4·1:12
Cameron Brink makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 89·LA 69
- Q4·1:12
A'ja Wilson shooting foul
LV 89·LA 68
- Q4·1:23
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 1
LV 89·LA 68
- Q4·1:23
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Jewell Loyd
·
LV 88·LA 68
- Q4·1:23
Dana Evans enters the game for Chelsea Gray
·
LV 88·LA 68
- Q4·1:23
Megan Gustafson enters the game for Jackie Young
·
LV 88·LA 68
- Q4·1:23
Cameron Brink shooting foul
LV 88·LA 68
- Q4·1:23
A'ja Wilson makes driving layup (Jackie Young assists)
·
LV 88·LA 68
- Q4·1:23
Jackie Young offensive rebound
LV 86·LA 68
- Q4·1:26
A'ja Wilson misses 11-foot jumper
LV 86·LA 68
- Q4·1:39
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 86·LA 68
- Q4·1:42
Rickea Jackson misses 23-foot three point jumper
LV 86·LA 68
- Q4·1:58
A'ja Wilson turnover
LV 86·LA 68
- Q4·1:58
A'ja Wilson offensive foul
LV 86·LA 68
- Q4·2:01
Azura Stevens makes two point shot
LV 86·LA 68
- Q4·2:04
Azura Stevens offensive rebound
LV 86·LA 66
- Q4·2:04
Azura Stevens misses two point shot
LV 86·LA 66
- Q4·2:04
Azura Stevens offensive rebound
LV 86·LA 66
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
LA
Home
36-78
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-69
46
FG %
38
9-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-24
8-8
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-19
25
Assists
16
13
Turnovers
19
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Erica WheelerLA1.2± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
LA
49.7%
FG%
44.7
▶50.7%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
32.6
34.3%
91.0
PPG
85.4
91.6
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
21.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.4