Jun 18, 25sim 96
1498
6(H)67
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8LV
IND
6-7
8189
LV
6-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Indiana Fever, 89–81.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
21.4Game score
26
Pts
10
Reb
3
Ast
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
18.6Game score
19
Pts
7
Reb
7
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND6-7
8189
LV6-7
IND6-7LV6-7
IND
6-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +2 | |
| 33 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 35 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | |
| 36 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 35 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -15 | |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 17 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -12 | |
| Team | 81 | 33 | 23 | 9 | 1 | 16 | ||
| DNP: D. Bonner, M. Timpson, D. Dantas | ||||||||
LV
6-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 19 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 34 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +4 | |
| 35 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | |
| 34 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +15 | |
| 27 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +4 | |
| 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 27 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +13 | |
| Team | 89 | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 13 | ||
| DNP: J. Holmes, K. Bell, M. Gustafson, E. Kitley | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
45
23
Ast
19
Playoff series
LV wins series 3-2
Sep 21IND89@LV73
IND89@LV73Sep 24IND68@LV90
IND68@LV90Sep 26LV84@IND72
LV84@IND72Sep 28LV83@IND90
LV83@IND90Oct 1IND98@LV107
IND98@LV107Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 5:42
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 33 min
26 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 27 min
19 PTS · 7 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
LV beat IND 89-81. J. Young led with 19 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST. LV outscored the other side 31-20 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 98% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 25 REB · 19 AST
GS 59
Bench(3)
2 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
GS 2
LVstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST
GS 56
Bench(3)
18 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND4th Quarter · 5:42 · 66-69
+15pp→ 41% WP
A'ja Wilson · shooting foul
IND4th Quarter · 5:03 · 69-69
+13pp→ 45% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
LV4th Quarter · 4:23 · 69-69
+13pp→ 69% WP
Aliyah Boston · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 21 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 81 |
| LV | 20 | 16 | 22 | 31 | 89 |
Period scoring
IND won 2 · LV won 2
21
20
Q1
Boston 10
Gray 5
21
16
Q2
Boston 8
Gray 4
19
22
Q3
Clark 8
Wilson 8
20
31
Q4
Mitchell 10
Young 11
IND
LV
Shooting comparison
IND
LV
49%
34-70
FG
45%
32-71
26%
6-23
3PT
30%
6-20
78%
7-9
FT
90%
19-21
Play-by-play · 389 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 81·LV 89
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 81·LV 89
- Q4·13.0
Chelsea Gray defensive rebound
IND 81·LV 89
- Q4·15.1
Caitlin Clark misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 81·LV 89
+0.5pp
- Q4·22.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 81·LV 89
−0.5pp
- Q4·22.1
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
IND 81·LV 88
- Q4·22.1
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Aaliyah Nye
·
IND 81·LV 88
- Q4·22.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 81·LV 88
- Q4·22.1
Lexie Hull personal take foul
IND 81·LV 87
+1pp
- Q4·25.1
Natasha Howard enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
IND 81·LV 87
- Q4·25.1
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
IND 81·LV 87
- Q4·25.1
Aces Full timeout
IND 81·LV 87
- Q4·25.1
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
IND 81·LV 87
+0.6pp
- Q4·27.1
Lexie Hull misses layup
IND 81·LV 87
+2pp
- Q4·29.2
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 81·LV 87
−2pp
- Q4·30.0
A'ja Wilson blocks Lexie Hull 's 5-foot driving layup
·
IND 81·LV 87
+2pp
- Q4·36.0
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
IND 81·LV 87
- Q4·36.0
Fever timeout
IND 81·LV 87
- Q4·36.0
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
IND 81·LV 87
- Q4·37.0
A'ja Wilson misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 81·LV 87
−3pp
- Q4·37.0
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Aaliyah Nye
·
IND 81·LV 87
- Q4·37.0
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 81·LV 87
- Q4·37.0
Caitlin Clark shooting foul
IND 81·LV 86
+3pp
- Q4·40.0
Aces timeout
IND 81·LV 86
- Q4·40.0
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 81·LV 86
+3pp
- Q4·40.0
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
IND 80·LV 86
- Q4·40.0
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 80·LV 86
−0.9pp
- Q4·40.0
Jewell Loyd shooting foulBIG MOMENT
IND 79·LV 86
−5pp
- Q4·45.2
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 79·LV 86
−0.8pp
- Q4·45.2
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 79·LV 85
+4pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
LV
Home
34-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-71
49
FG %
45
6-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-20
7-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-21
23
Assists
19
16
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
LV
45.4%
FG%
44.7
▶49.7%
32.1%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.9%
92.9
PPG
◀
85.4
91.0
22.3
Assists / G
18.0
22.1
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6