Aug 15, 25sim 94
1688
5(H)84
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+18ATL
CHI
2-7
7088
ATL
7-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Chicago Sky, 88–70. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Kamilla Cardoso
C · #10
13.0Game score
15
Pts
9
Reb
3
Ast
ATL · top performer
Rhyne Howard
G · #10
25.3Game score
36
Pts
8
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Chicago Sky at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CHI2-7
7088
ATL7-3
CHI2-7ATL7-3
CHI
2-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -14 | |
| 27 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -22 | |
| 29 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 27 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -20 | |
| 29 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -16 | |
| 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| 15 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +6 | |
| 23 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| Team | 70 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 12 | ||
ATL
7-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +7 | |
| 26 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +24 | |
| 36 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +24 | |
| 26 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +23 | |
| 39 | 36 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +21 | |
| 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 88 | 39 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 12 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
46
20
Ast
21
Season series
ATL wins series 4-0
Jun 13CHI70@ATL88today
CHI70@ATL88todayJun 22CHI80@ATL93
CHI80@ATL93Jul 16ATL86@CHI49
ATL86@CHI49Aug 8ATL86@CHI65
ATL86@CHI65Headlines · top performers
Game flowCHI ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 9:49
CHIK. Cardoso
CGame leader · 27 min
15 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
ATLR. Howard
GGame leader · 39 min30+ point game
36 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
ATL beat CHI 88-70. R. Howard led the way with 36 points and 8 rebounds. ATL outscored the other side 30-16 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST
GS 35
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
GS 16
ATLstarters 94% of ptsStarters(5)
83 PTS · 32 REB · 17 AST
GS 69
Bench(6)
5 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
GS 2
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL2nd Quarter · 52.1 · 37-34
+10pp→ 54% WP
Rhyne Howard · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)
ATL3rd Quarter · 1:14 · 53-56
+10pp→ 71% WP
Rhyne Howard · makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Allisha Gray assists)
ATL4th Quarter · 9:49 · 54-61
+11pp→ 85% WP
Rhyne Howard · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Allisha Gray assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 12 | 27 | 15 | 16 | 70 |
| ATL | 15 | 23 | 20 | 30 | 88 |
Period scoring
CHI won 1 · ATL won 3
12
15
Q1
Cardoso 6
Gray 4
27
23
Q2
Reese 8
Howard 8
15
20
Q3
Atkins 5
Howard 11
16
30
Q4
Williams 4
Howard 17
CHI
ATL
Shooting comparison
CHI
ATL
41%
28-68
FG
46%
32-70
33%
6-18
3PT
32%
12-37
53%
8-15
FT
71%
12-17
Play-by-play · 394 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 70·ATL 88
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 70·ATL 88
- Q4·5.1
Hailey Van Lith makes driving layup
CHI 70·ATL 88
- Q4·23.1
Maddy Westbeld defensive rebound
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·26.1
Maya Caldwell misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·48.1
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·50.1
Hailey Van Lith misses driving layup
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:03
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:03
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:03
Sky defensive team rebound
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:06
Nia Coffey misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:25
Brionna Jones defensive rebound
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:25
Elizabeth Williams misses 2-foot two point shot
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:26
Rachel Banham offensive rebound
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:31
Rebecca Allen misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:33
Rhyne Howard lost ball turnover (Elizabeth Williams steals)
·
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:33
Elizabeth Williams vs. Rhyne Howard (Maddy Westbeld gains possession)
· ·
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:36
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:36
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·1:47
Hailey Van Lith makes 6-foot two point shot
CHI 68·ATL 88
- Q4·2:01
Rhyne Howard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Allisha Gray assists)
·
CHI 66·ATL 88
- Q4·2:05
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
CHI 66·ATL 85
- Q4·2:08
Elizabeth Williams misses layup
CHI 66·ATL 85
- Q4·2:23
Allisha Gray makes two point shot (Nia Coffey assists)
·
CHI 66·ATL 85
- Q4·2:44
Elizabeth Williams makes 19-foot jumper (Hailey Van Lith assists)
·
CHI 66·ATL 83
- Q4·3:02
Brionna Jones makes two point shot (Rhyne Howard assists)
·
CHI 64·ATL 83
- Q4·3:07
Rhyne Howard defensive rebound
CHI 64·ATL 81
- Q4·3:11
Rebecca Allen misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHI 64·ATL 81
- Q4·3:29
Elizabeth Williams defensive rebound
CHI 64·ATL 81
- Q4·3:33
Rhyne Howard misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI 64·ATL 81
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
28-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-70
41
FG %
46
6-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-37
8-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-17
20
Assists
21
12
Turnovers
12
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.0± 1.0low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
ATL
41.1%
FG%
44.7
▶43.6%
25.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶31.4%
82.8
PPG
85.4
▶83.9
19.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.9
11.0
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.9