Jul 3, 25sim 95
679
9(H)89
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+30PHX
DAL
6-14
72102
PHX
13-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Dallas Wings, 102–72. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Myisha Hines-Allen
F · #2
11.3Game score
11
Pts
8
Reb
4
Ast
PHX · top performer
Sami Whitcomb
G · #33
26.6Game score
36
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL6-14
72102
PHX13-6
DAL6-14PHX13-6
DAL
6-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -17 | |
| 29 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -25 | |
| 24 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -27 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 36 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -25 | |
| 29 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -16 | |
| 24 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -26 | |
| 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 22 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -11 | |
| Team | 72 | 44 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 17 | ||
| DNP: M. Siegrist, A. Ogunbowale, T. Harris, D. Carrington | ||||||||
PHX
13-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +30 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 28 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +25 | |
| 24 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +21 | |
| 27 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +36 | |
| 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +22 | |
| 24 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +9 | |
| 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 21 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| Team | 102 | 43 | 29 | 9 | 5 | 9 | ||
| DNP: S. Sabally, M. Musa, K. Copper, L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
36
FG %
47
16
Ast
29
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Jun 12DAL80@PHX93
DAL80@PHX93Jul 4PHX89@DAL98
PHX89@DAL98Jul 8DAL72@PHX102today
DAL72@PHX102todaySep 12PHX76@DAL97
PHX76@DAL97Headlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 1:03
DALM. Hines-Allen
FGame leader · 24 min
11 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
PHXS. Whitcomb
GGame leader · 27 min30+ point game
36 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
PHX beat DAL 102-72. S. Whitcomb led the way with 36 points and 6 rebounds. PHX outscored the other side 30-17 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
50 PTS · 22 REB · 12 AST
GS 21
Bench(3)
22 PTS · 22 REB · 4 AST
GS 22
PHXstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 31 REB · 23 AST
GS 66
Bench(3)
29 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST
GS 28
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL2nd Quarter · 5:27 · 29-37
+6pp→ 21% WP
Alyssa Thomas · misses layup
DAL1st Quarter · 1:03 · 17-26
+9pp→ 18% WP
Natasha Mack · enters the game for Kalani Brown
PHX3rd Quarter · 10:00 · 39-52
+9pp→ 91% WP
Natasha Mack · enters the game for Kalani Brown
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 72 |
| PHX | 28 | 24 | 30 | 20 | 102 |
Period scoring
DAL won 0 · PHX won 4
19
28
Q1
Hines-Allen 6
Whitcomb 19
20
24
Q2
James 8
Whitcomb 10
17
30
Q3
McCowan 8
Mack 28
16
20
Q4
Quinerly 8
Laksa 6
DAL
PHX
Shooting comparison
DAL
PHX
36%
27-75
FG
47%
36-76
33%
8-24
3PT
44%
14-32
83%
10-12
FT
64%
16-25
Play-by-play · 420 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 72·PHX 102
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 72·PHX 102
- Q4·13.1
shot clock turnover
DAL 72·PHX 102
- Q4·32.1
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
DAL 72·PHX 102
- Q4·35.0
Teaira McCowan misses 17-foot jumper
DAL 72·PHX 102
- Q4·45.0
Kathryn Westbeld makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kiana Williams assists)
·
DAL 72·PHX 102
- Q4·54.1
JJ Quinerly personal foul
DAL 72·PHX 99
- Q4·1:04
Kiana Williams defensive rebound
DAL 72·PHX 99
- Q4·1:05
Aziaha James misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 72·PHX 99
- Q4·1:08
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 72·PHX 99
- Q4·1:08
Kalani Brown blocks Aziaha James 's 7-foot driving floating jump shot
·
DAL 72·PHX 99
- Q4·1:21
shot clock turnover
DAL 72·PHX 99
- Q4·1:21
Mercury offensive team rebound
DAL 72·PHX 99
- Q4·1:21
Luisa Geiselsoder blocks Kathryn Westbeld 's 7-foot jumper
·
DAL 72·PHX 99
- Q4·1:45
JJ Quinerly makes 25-foot three point jumper (Myisha Hines-Allen assists)
·
DAL 72·PHX 99
- Q4·1:59
Teaira McCowan defensive rebound
DAL 69·PHX 99
- Q4·2:01
Kitija Laksa misses 22-foot jumper
DAL 69·PHX 99
- Q4·2:21
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
DAL 69·PHX 99
- Q4·2:22
Luisa Geiselsoder misses 12-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 69·PHX 99
- Q4·2:39
Kitija Laksa enters the game for Sami Whitcomb
·
DAL 69·PHX 99
- Q4·2:39
Sami Whitcomb personal take foul
DAL 69·PHX 99
- Q4·2:39
Wings Full timeout
DAL 69·PHX 99
- Q4·2:39
Natasha Mack makes 5-foot layup (Kiana Williams assists)
·
DAL 69·PHX 99
- Q4·2:48
Kathryn Westbeld defensive rebound
DAL 69·PHX 97
- Q4·2:49
Luisa Geiselsoder misses driving floating jump shot
DAL 69·PHX 97
- Q4·3:08
Kiana Williams makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
DAL 69·PHX 97
- Q4·3:21
Sami Whitcomb defensive rebound
DAL 69·PHX 94
- Q4·3:22
Aziaha James misses 24-foot three point jumper
DAL 69·PHX 94
- Q4·3:31
Teaira McCowan defensive rebound
DAL 69·PHX 94
- Q4·3:33
Sami Whitcomb misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 69·PHX 94
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
27-75
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-76
36
FG %
47
8-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-32
10-12
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-25
16
Assists
29
17
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 11 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
PHX
46.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
42.3%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
88.9
PPG
◀
85.4
83.7
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.7
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
12.4