Sep 2, 25sim 94
691
14(H)85
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2LA
LA
12-15
108106
SEA
16-12
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 108–106 in overtime. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Azura Stevens
F · #23
21.5Game score
21
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
30.1Game score
37
Pts
12
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final/2OT
LA12-15
108106
SEA16-12
LA12-15SEA16-12
LA
12-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 41 | 21 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +7 | |
| 35 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | |
| 47 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
| 48 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +5 | |
| 46 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| 12 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -8 | |
| 18 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| Team | 108 | 46 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 18 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, S. Barker | ||||||||
SEA
16-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 46 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 42 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 34 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +5 | |
| 43 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 39 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +9 | |
| 20 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -7 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 13 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| Team | 106 | 42 | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | ||
| DNP: A. Clark, K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, Z. Cooke | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
43
23
Ast
29
Season series
LA wins series 3-1
Jun 18SEA98@LA67
SEA98@LA67Aug 2LA108@SEA106today
LA108@SEA106todayAug 11SEA91@LA94
SEA91@LA94Sep 2LA91@SEA85
LA91@SEA85Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 38pp · 2OT · 25.0
LAA. Stevens
FGame leader · 35 min
21 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 46 min30+ point game
37 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LA beat SEA 108-106. A. Stevens led with 21 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. Dearica Hamby's play in the 2ot drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 92% of ptsStarters(5)
99 PTS · 40 REB · 22 AST
GS 76
Bench(3)
9 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
GS 4
SEAstarters 88% of ptsStarters(5)
93 PTS · 32 REB · 26 AST
GS 77
Bench(3)
13 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA4th Quarter · 50.8 · 79-82
+24pp→ 42% WP
Gabby Williams · shooting foul
LA4th Quarter · 4.9 · 86-86
+29pp→ 47% WP
Rickea Jackson · makes layup (Dearica Hamby assists)
SEA2OT · 25.0 · 106-103
+38pp→ 46% WP
Dearica Hamby · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | OT2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 18 | 18 | 23 | 27 | 13 | 9 | 108 |
| SEA | 16 | 23 | 27 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 106 |
Period scoring
LA won 3 · SEA won 2
18
16
Q1
Stevens 6
Ogwumike 11
18
23
Q2
Hamby 8
Malonga 6
23
27
Q3
Plum 12
Ogwumike 10
27
20
Q4
Brink 7
Ogwumike 5
13
13
OT
Stevens 5
Ogwumike 5
9
7
OT2
Hamby 4
Ogwumike 4
LA
SEA
Shooting comparison
LA
SEA
47%
41-88
FG
43%
40-94
27%
7-26
3PT
34%
11-32
76%
19-25
FT
79%
15-19
Play-by-play · 479 plays
period
event
player
- 2OT·0.0
End of Game
LA 108·SEA 106
- 2OT·0.0
End of the 2nd Overtime
LA 108·SEA 106
- 2OT·0.0
Storm offensive team rebound
LA 108·SEA 106
- 2OT·0.0
Skylar Diggins misses 5-foot jump bank shotBIG MOMENT
LA 108·SEA 106
−11pp
- 2OT·4.3
Storm timeout
LA 108·SEA 106
- 2OT·4.3
Dearica Hamby makes layupBIG MOMENT
LA 108·SEA 106
−32pp
- 2OT·16.4
Gabby Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)
·
LA 106·SEA 106
−3pp
- 2OT·25.0
Dearica Hamby personal foulBIG MOMENT
LA 106·SEA 103
+38pp
- 2OT·28.5
(00:28.5) [Sparks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Sparks] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
LA 106·SEA 103
−6pp
- 2OT·28.5
Storm Full timeout
LA 106·SEA 103
- 2OT·28.5
Kelsey Plum turnover
LA 106·SEA 103
- 2OT·28.5
Kelsey Plum offensive foul
LA 106·SEA 103
+4pp
- 2OT·45.5
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
LA 106·SEA 103
−2pp
- 2OT·47.9
Erica Wheeler misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LA 106·SEA 103
−8pp
- 2OT·1:10
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
LA 106·SEA 103
+2pp
- 2OT·1:13
Julie Allemand misses 10-foot step back jumpshot
LA 106·SEA 103
+5pp
- 2OT·1:32
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
LA 106·SEA 103
−2pp
- 2OT·1:35
Ezi Magbegor misses layupBIG MOMENT
LA 106·SEA 103
−7pp
- 2OT·1:57
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
LA 106·SEA 103
+2pp
- 2OT·1:59
Kelsey Plum misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LA 106·SEA 103
+5pp
- 2OT·2:10
Azura Stevens offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LA 106·SEA 103
−6pp
- 2OT·2:12
Kelsey Plum misses 25-foot three point jumper
LA 106·SEA 103
+5pp
- 2OT·2:25
Nneka Ogwumike makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 106·SEA 103
−6pp
- 2OT·2:25
Nneka Ogwumike makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 106·SEA 102
- 2OT·2:25
Dearica Hamby shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LA 106·SEA 101
+10pp
- 2OT·2:35
Storm Full timeout
LA 106·SEA 101
- 2OT·2:35
Azura Stevens makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julie Allemand assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 106·SEA 101
−14pp
- 2OT·2:49
Julie Allemand defensive rebound
LA 103·SEA 101
−2pp
- 2OT·2:52
Ezi Magbegor misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LA 103·SEA 101
−7pp
- 2OT·3:13
Julie Allemand out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
LA 103·SEA 101
+8pp
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
41-88
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
40-94
47
FG %
43
7-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-32
19-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-19
23
Assists
29
18
Turnovers
12
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Erica WheelerLA1.2± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
SEA
50.8%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
35.0%
3PT %
◀
33.0
34.1%
91.5
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
20.8
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
16.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6