Jun 18, 25sim 97
1498
6(H)67
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5PHX
PHX
5-2
8580
LA
2-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 85–80.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Satou Sabally
F · #0
17.2Game score
24
Pts
9
Reb
2
Ast
LA · top performer
Odyssey Sims
G · #0
27.9Game score
32
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX5-2
8580
LA2-6
PHX5-2LA2-6
PHX
5-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +11 | |
| 32 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
| 28 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +5 | |
| 29 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 20 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 16 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 21 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| Team | 85 | 38 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 12 | ||
| DNP: A. Thomas, N. Mack, K. Copper | ||||||||
LA
2-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | |
| 20 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 37 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| 34 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 35 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | |
| 15 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | |
| 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +13 | |
| Team | 80 | 38 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 13 | ||
| DNP: R. Jackson, S. Feagin, L. King | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
37
22
Ast
17
Season series
PHX wins series 3-1
May 22LA86@PHX89
LA86@PHX89Jun 1PHX85@LA80today
PHX85@LA80todayAug 27PHX92@LA84
PHX92@LA84Sep 10LA88@PHX83
LA88@PHX83Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 3:16
PHXS. Sabally
FGame leader · 32 min
24 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
LAO. Sims
GGame leader · 37 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
PHX beat LA 85-80. S. Sabally led with 24 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST. PHX outscored the other side 24-9 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 88% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST
GS 62
Bench(5)
10 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST
GS 4
LAstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 31 REB · 15 AST
GS 45
Bench(3)
13 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA4th Quarter · 4:11 · 74-73
+14pp→ 55% WP
Kitija Laksa · shooting foul
PHX4th Quarter · 3:16 · 77-74
+15pp→ 67% WP
Satou Sabally · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Monique Akoa Makani assists)
PHX4th Quarter · 20.0 · 80-78
+15pp→ 83% WP
Kelsey Plum · bad pass (Kitija Laksa steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 17 | 20 | 24 | 24 | 85 |
| LA | 27 | 23 | 9 | 21 | 80 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · LA won 2
17
27
Q1
Laksa 9
Sims 14
20
23
Q2
Sabally 8
Barker 6
24
9
Q3
Westbeld 10
Sims 6
24
21
Q4
Sabally 7
Sims 9
PHX
LA
Shooting comparison
PHX
LA
41%
26-64
FG
37%
26-71
41%
12-29
3PT
23%
8-35
88%
21-24
FT
80%
20-25
Play-by-play · 426 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 85·LA 80
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 85·LA 80
−0.5pp
- Q4·2.1
Sparks offensive team rebound
PHX 85·LA 80
- Q4·2.1
Kelsey Plum misses running pullup jump shot
PHX 85·LA 80
−1pp
- Q4·6.1
Satou Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 85·LA 80
- Q4·6.1
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 84·LA 80
+1pp
- Q4·6.1
Satou Sabally misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 84·LA 80
- Q4·6.1
Dearica Hamby personal foul
PHX 84·LA 80
−2pp
- Q4·7.1
Kitija Laksa enters the game for Lexi Held
·
PHX 84·LA 80
- Q4·7.1
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 84·LA 80
- Q4·7.1
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
PHX 84·LA 80
- Q4·8.1
Dearica Hamby misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 84·LA 80
−3pp
- Q4·8.1
Sparks offensive team rebound
PHX 84·LA 80
−4pp
- Q4·8.1
Dearica Hamby misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 84·LA 80
−6pp
- Q4·8.1
Lexi Held shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 84·LA 80
+9pp
- Q4·9.2
Lexi Held enters the game for Kitija Laksa
·
PHX 84·LA 80
- Q4·9.2
Sparks timeout
PHX 84·LA 80
- Q4·9.2
Kathryn Westbeld makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 84·LA 80
+3pp
- Q4·9.2
Kathryn Westbeld makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 83·LA 80
−0.9pp
- Q4·9.2
Odyssey Sims personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 82·LA 80
−11pp
- Q4·14.0
Mercury timeout
PHX 82·LA 80
- Q4·14.0
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 82·LA 80
−8pp
- Q4·14.0
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 82·LA 79
+2pp
- Q4·14.0
Satou Sabally shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 82·LA 78
+10pp
- Q4·18.2
Azura Stevens enters the game for Emma Cannon
·
PHX 82·LA 78
- Q4·18.2
Sparks Full timeout
PHX 82·LA 78
- Q4·18.2
Kitija Laksa makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 82·LA 78
+4pp
- Q4·18.2
Kitija Laksa makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 81·LA 78
−1pp
- Q4·18.2
Kelsey Plum personal take foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 80·LA 78
−10pp
- Q4·20.0
Kelsey Plum bad pass (Kitija Laksa steals)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 80·LA 78
−15pp
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
LA
Home
26-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-71
41
FG %
37
12-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-35
21-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-25
22
Assists
17
12
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
LA
42.3%
FG%
44.7
▶50.7%
31.4%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.3%
83.7
PPG
85.4
▶91.6
17.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
12.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.4