Jul 31, 25sim 96
12968968
16(H)67
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3LA
SEA
16-16
9194
LA
15-16
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks held off Seattle Storm, 94–91. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Brittney Sykes
G · #20
17.6Game score
27
Pts
1
Reb
3
Ast
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
18.3Game score
20
Pts
6
Reb
7
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA16-16
9194
LA15-16
SEA16-16LA15-16
SEA
16-16
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 25 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 15 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 32 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 35 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | +5 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 30 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | |
| 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| Team | 91 | 32 | 23 | 13 | 1 | 14 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, L. Brown | ||||||||
LA
15-16
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +13 | |
| 22 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | |
| 37 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 37 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 30 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -9 | |
| 11 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -10 | |
| 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
| 20 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +13 | |
| Team | 94 | 30 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 19 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, A. Pili, S. Barker | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
53
23
Ast
25
Season series
LA wins series 3-1
Jun 18SEA98@LA67
SEA98@LA67Aug 2LA108@SEA106
LA108@SEA106Aug 11SEA91@LA94today
SEA91@LA94todaySep 2LA91@SEA85
LA91@SEA85Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 39pp · 4th Quarter · 5.6
SEAB. Sykes
GGame leader · 35 min
27 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST
LAK. Plum
GGame leader · 37 min
20 PTS · 6 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
LA beat SEA 94-91. K. Plum led with 20 PTS, 6 REB, 7 AST. LA outscored the other side 32-19 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 20 REB · 19 AST
GS 55
Bench(3)
25 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST
GS 20
LAstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 24 REB · 19 AST
GS 55
Bench(3)
26 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST
GS 26
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA4th Quarter · 56.5 · 87-87
+20pp→ 78% WP
Brittney Sykes · shooting foul
LA4th Quarter · 17.9 · 89-91
+23pp→ 81% WP
Dearica Hamby · makes layup (Julie Allemand assists)
LA4th Quarter · 5.6 · 91-93
+39pp→ 96% WP
Dearica Hamby · makes driving layup (Julie Allemand assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 26 | 19 | 24 | 22 | 91 |
| LA | 14 | 32 | 22 | 26 | 94 |
Period scoring
SEA won 2 · LA won 2
26
14
Q1
Ogwumike 7
Plum 6
19
32
Q2
Sykes 5
Burrell 8
24
22
Q3
Malonga 9
Hamby 6
22
26
Q4
Sykes 14
Hamby 7
SEA
LA
Shooting comparison
SEA
LA
47%
37-78
FG
53%
34-64
38%
9-24
3PT
52%
14-27
89%
8-9
FT
92%
12-13
Play-by-play · 366 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 91·LA 94
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 91·LA 94
+3pp
- Q4·5.6
Storm timeout
SEA 91·LA 94
- Q4·5.6
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 1 of 1
SEA 91·LA 94
−2pp
- Q4·5.6
Dominique Malonga shooting foul
SEA 91·LA 93
+2pp
- Q4·5.6
Dearica Hamby makes driving layup (Julie Allemand assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 91·LA 93
+39pp
- Q4·12.7
Sparks timeout
SEA 91·LA 91
- Q4·12.7
Brittney Sykes makes layupBIG MOMENT
SEA 91·LA 91
−24pp
- Q4·17.9
Storm Full timeout
SEA 89·LA 91
- Q4·17.9
Dearica Hamby makes layup (Julie Allemand assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 89·LA 91
+23pp
- Q4·41.5
Brittney Sykes makes driving layup
SEA 89·LA 89
−3pp
- Q4·56.5
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 87·LA 89
−19pp
- Q4·56.5
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 87·LA 88
+2pp
- Q4·56.5
Brittney Sykes shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 87·LA 87
+20pp
- Q4·1:01
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
SEA 87·LA 87
+2pp
- Q4·1:03
Skylar Diggins misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
SEA 87·LA 87
+6pp
- Q4·1:25
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 87·LA 87
−6pp
- Q4·1:25
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 87·LA 86
+7pp
- Q4·1:25
Dominique Malonga shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 87·LA 85
+13pp
- Q4·1:44
Brittney Sykes bad pass (Julie Allemand steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 87·LA 85
+12pp
- Q4·1:53
Storm Full timeout
SEA 87·LA 85
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:59
Azura Stevens makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julie Allemand assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 87·LA 85
+12pp
- Q4·2:10
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
SEA 87·LA 82
+0.8pp
- Q4·2:13
Skylar Diggins misses two point shot
SEA 87·LA 82
+3pp
- Q4·2:14
Skylar Diggins offensive rebound
SEA 87·LA 82
−3pp
- Q4·2:17
Skylar Diggins misses driving layup
SEA 87·LA 82
+3pp
- Q4·2:27
Azura Stevens makes 3-foot layup (Kelsey Plum assists)
·
SEA 87·LA 82
- Q4·2:36
Brittney Sykes personal foul
SEA 87·LA 80
+2pp
- Q4·2:52
Skylar Diggins makes 20-foot running pullup jump shot
SEA 87·LA 80
−3pp
- Q4·2:56
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
SEA 85·LA 80
−1pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
LA
Home
37-78
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-64
47
FG %
53
9-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-27
8-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-13
23
Assists
25
14
Turnovers
19
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort- Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Erica WheelerLA1.2± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
LA
41.6%
FG%
44.7
▶50.7%
34.1%
3PT %
32.6
34.3%
79.5
PPG
85.4
▶91.6
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.4