Jun 27, 25sim 97
1694
17(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2WSH
LV
9-11
6870
WSH
10-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics held off Las Vegas Aces, 70–68. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
Jewell Loyd
G · #24
14.9Game score
20
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
WSH · top performer
Shakira Austin
C · #0
11.1Game score
16
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV9-11
6870
WSH10-10
LV9-11WSH10-10
LV
9-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | |
| 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 29 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -7 | |
| 33 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| 30 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 22 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -7 | |
| 22 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +14 | |
| 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 68 | 31 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 11 | ||
| DNP: A. Wilson | ||||||||
WSH
10-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -2 | |
| 27 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | |
| 35 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +8 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 25 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 38 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 16 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +4 | |
| 13 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 18 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| Team | 70 | 35 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 16 | ||
| DNP: S. Kone, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
44
12
Ast
20
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 24WSH72@LV75
WSH72@LV75Jun 27WSH94@LV83
WSH94@LV83Jul 10LV68@WSH70today
LV68@WSH70todayAug 23LV91@WSH81
LV91@WSH81Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 31pp · 4th Quarter · 5.0
LVJ. Loyd
GGame leader · 33 min
20 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
WSHS. Austin
CGame leader · 27 min
16 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
WSH beat LV 70-68. S. Austin led with 16 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. LV outscored the other side 25-12 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 24 REB · 9 AST
GS 33
Bench(4)
19 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
GS 8
WSHstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 24 REB · 14 AST
GS 37
Bench(5)
10 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV3rd Quarter · 10:00 · 40-27
+17pp→ 91% WP
Sug Sutton · enters the game for Jade Melbourne
WSH4th Quarter · 1:48 · 66-63
+16pp→ 28% WP
Chelsea Gray · bad pass
WSH4th Quarter · 5.0 · 68-69
+31pp→ 86% WP
Chelsea Gray · out of bounds bad pass turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 15 | 25 | 15 | 13 | 68 |
| WSH | 15 | 12 | 23 | 20 | 70 |
Period scoring
LV won 1 · WSH won 2
15
15
Q1
Loyd 4
Austin 6
25
12
Q2
Loyd 9
Sykes 6
15
23
Q3
Loyd 5
Sykes 7
13
20
Q4
Young 6
Loyd 13
LV
WSH
Shooting comparison
LV
WSH
38%
27-71
FG
44%
27-62
12%
3-25
3PT
18%
2-11
79%
11-14
FT
82%
14-17
Play-by-play · 396 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 68·WSH 70
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 68·WSH 70
+0.6pp
- Q4·0.1
Sonia Citron defensive rebound
LV 68·WSH 70
+2pp
- Q4·1.2
Jackie Young misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
LV 68·WSH 70
+7pp
- Q4·4.1
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
LV 68·WSH 70
- Q4·4.1
Aces timeout
LV 68·WSH 70
- Q4·4.1
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 68·WSH 70
+2pp
- Q4·4.1
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Aaliyah Nye
·
LV 68·WSH 69
- Q4·4.1
Jade Melbourne enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
·
LV 68·WSH 69
- Q4·4.1
Mystics offensive team rebound
LV 68·WSH 69
−5pp
- Q4·4.1
Brittney Sykes misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 68·WSH 69
−3pp
- Q4·4.1
Jackie Young personal take foulBIG MOMENT
LV 68·WSH 69
+10pp
- Q4·5.0
Mystics Full timeout
LV 68·WSH 69
- Q4·5.0
Chelsea Gray out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
LV 68·WSH 69
+31pp
- Q4·17.1
Chelsea Gray offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LV 68·WSH 69
−11pp
- Q4·20.0
Chelsea Gray misses 9-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 68·WSH 69
+12pp
- Q4·25.2
Sug Sutton lost ball turnover (Jewell Loyd steals)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 68·WSH 69
−14pp
- Q4·31.1
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
LV 68·WSH 69
+4pp
- Q4·33.0
Jackie Young misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
LV 68·WSH 69
+11pp
- Q4·39.1
Aces Full timeout
LV 68·WSH 69
- Q4·39.1
Shakira Austin makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
LV 68·WSH 69
+7pp
- Q4·41.2
Shakira Austin offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LV 68·WSH 67
+10pp
- Q4·44.1
Brittney Sykes misses 10-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 68·WSH 67
−10pp
- Q4·50.2
Mystics Full timeout
LV 68·WSH 67
- Q4·50.2
Mystics defensive team rebound
LV 68·WSH 67
+3pp
- Q4·55.1
Megan Gustafson misses layupBIG MOMENT
LV 68·WSH 67
+9pp
- Q4·1:16
Brittney Sykes makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Kiki Iriafen assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 68·WSH 67
+7pp
- Q4·1:32
Jackie Young makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
LV 68·WSH 65
−7pp
- Q4·1:48
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 66·WSH 65
−8pp
- Q4·1:48
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 66·WSH 64
+2pp
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
27-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-62
38
FG %
44
3-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
2-11
11-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-17
12
Assists
20
11
Turnovers
16
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
- Sonia CitronWSH1.2± 0.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
WSH
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
45.7%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
32.6
28.0%
91.0
PPG
◀
85.4
83.4
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.7
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6