Jul 10, 25sim 97
1768
16(H)70
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11WSH
WSH
8-8
9483
LV
7-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics went into Las Vegas Aces and beat them, 94–83.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
16.3Game score
21
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
17.7Game score
22
Pts
5
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH8-8
9483
LV7-8
WSH8-8LV7-8
WSH
8-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
| 28 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 40 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +11 | |
| 34 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 15 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 38 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| Team | 94 | 34 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 8 | ||
| DNP: E. Engstler, B. Sykes, G. Amoore | ||||||||
LV
7-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -15 | |
| 32 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | |
| 31 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -10 | |
| 25 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | |
| 28 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -11 | |
| 19 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 22 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| Team | 83 | 27 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 8 | ||
| DNP: M. Gustafson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
50
18
Ast
21
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 24WSH72@LV75
WSH72@LV75Jun 27WSH94@LV83today
WSH94@LV83todayJul 10LV68@WSH70
LV68@WSH70Aug 23LV91@WSH81
LV91@WSH81Headlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 11pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:12
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 34 min
21 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 32 min
22 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
WSH beat LV 94-83. S. Citron led with 21 PTS, 2 REB, 2 AST. WSH outscored the other side 26-17 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 25 REB · 12 AST
GS 49
Bench(4)
29 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST
GS 24
LVstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 21 REB · 17 AST
GS 53
Bench(6)
20 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH2nd Quarter · 4:27 · 39-32
+9pp→ 56% WP
Sika Kone · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sug Sutton assists)
WSH2nd Quarter · 2:18 · 44-36
+10pp→ 63% WP
Sonia Citron · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH2nd Quarter · 1:12 · 47-40
+11pp→ 61% WP
Sonia Citron · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stefanie Dolson assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 29 | 24 | 26 | 15 | 94 |
| LV | 25 | 19 | 17 | 22 | 83 |
Period scoring
WSH won 3 · LV won 1
29
25
Q1
Olsen 8
Young 13
24
19
Q2
Citron 8
Wilson 8
26
17
Q3
Sutton 8
Evans 9
15
22
Q4
Austin 6
Loyd 7
WSH
LV
Shooting comparison
WSH
LV
46%
32-70
FG
50%
33-66
53%
10-19
3PT
26%
6-23
80%
20-25
FT
92%
11-12
Play-by-play · 377 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 94·LV 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 94·LV 83
- Q4·21.0
Chelsea Gray makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jewell Loyd assists)
·
WSH 94·LV 83
- Q4·29.0
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 94·LV 80
- Q4·29.0
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 93·LV 80
- Q4·29.0
Dana Evans shooting foul
WSH 92·LV 80
- Q4·43.1
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
WSH 92·LV 80
- Q4·46.0
Chelsea Gray misses 26-foot three point jumper
WSH 92·LV 80
- Q4·47.1
Dana Evans enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
WSH 92·LV 80
- Q4·47.1
Aces Full timeout
WSH 92·LV 80
- Q4·47.1
Sug Sutton makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 92·LV 80
- Q4·47.1
Sug Sutton makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 91·LV 80
- Q4·47.1
Chelsea Gray personal take foul
WSH 90·LV 80
- Q4·53.1
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
WSH 90·LV 80
- Q4·55.1
Jewell Loyd misses 25-foot three point jumper
WSH 90·LV 80
- Q4·1:00
Shakira Austin makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 90·LV 80
- Q4·1:00
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 89·LV 80
- Q4·1:00
Shakira Austin misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 89·LV 80
- Q4·1:00
A'ja Wilson shooting foul
WSH 89·LV 80
- Q4·1:16
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
WSH 89·LV 80
- Q4·1:17
A'ja Wilson misses 6-foot two point shot
WSH 89·LV 80
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:31
Shakira Austin makes two point shot
WSH 89·LV 80
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:32
Shakira Austin offensive rebound
WSH 87·LV 80
−2pp
- Q4·1:33
Kiki Iriafen misses two point shot
WSH 87·LV 80
+1pp
- Q4·1:51
Mystics defensive team rebound
WSH 87·LV 80
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:54
Jewell Loyd misses two point shot
WSH 87·LV 80
−2pp
- Q4·1:59
Chelsea Gray defensive rebound
WSH 87·LV 80
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:01
A'ja Wilson blocks Shakira Austin 's 6-foot two point shot
·
WSH 87·LV 80
+1pp
- Q4·2:14
Jewell Loyd makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 87·LV 80
−2pp
- Q4·2:14
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Dana Evans
·
WSH 87·LV 79
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
LV
Home
32-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-66
46
FG %
50
10-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-23
20-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-12
18
Assists
21
8
Turnovers
8
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
- Sonia CitronWSH1.2± 0.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
LV
45.7%
FG%
44.7
▶49.7%
28.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.9%
83.4
PPG
85.4
▶91.0
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
15.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6