Jul 16, 25sim 97
12968958
14(H)67
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4LV
SEA
16-15
8690
LV
17-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Seattle Storm, 90–86. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Dominique Malonga
C · #14
19.5Game score
22
Pts
12
Reb
0
Ast
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
21.9Game score
26
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA16-15
8690
LV17-14
SEA16-15LV17-14
SEA
16-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -16 | |
| 37 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 30 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 20 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -20 | |
| 31 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 25 | 22 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 29 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | |
USG%.28780 ORB%.03740 DRB%.12540 | ||||||||
| Team | 86 | 29 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 7 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, L. Brown | ||||||||
LV
17-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +14 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 35 | 29 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +15 | |
| 34 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | +12 | |
| 33 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 12 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -14 | |
| 26 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | |
| 13 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -16 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| Team | 90 | 38 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Stokes | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
45
21
Ast
20
Playoff series
LV wins series 2-1
Sep 15SEA77@LV102
SEA77@LV102Sep 17LV83@SEA86
LV83@SEA86Sep 19SEA73@LV74
SEA73@LV74Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 4:41
SEAD. Malonga
CGame leader · 25 min
22 PTS · 12 REB · 0 AST
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 33 min
26 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
LV beat SEA 90-86. J. Young paced them with 26 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. Erica Wheeler's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
50 PTS · 15 REB · 15 AST
GS 41
Bench(3)
36 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST
GS 29
LVstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 31 REB · 15 AST
GS 61
Bench(4)
12 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
GS 11
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA4th Quarter · 6:44 · 70-73
+12pp→ 45% WP
NaLyssa Smith · shooting foul
SEA4th Quarter · 5:38 · 74-75
+16pp→ 51% WP
A'ja Wilson · shooting foul
LV4th Quarter · 4:41 · 75-80
+22pp→ 85% WP
Erica Wheeler · misses 27-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 17 | 19 | 27 | 23 | 86 |
| LV | 23 | 24 | 24 | 19 | 90 |
Period scoring
SEA won 2 · LV won 2
17
23
Q1
Magbegor 8
Wilson 9
19
24
Q2
Wheeler 6
Wilson 9
27
24
Q3
Williams 9
Young 7
23
19
Q4
Malonga 10
Young 12
SEA
LV
Shooting comparison
SEA
LV
48%
32-67
FG
45%
31-69
29%
6-21
3PT
45%
10-22
76%
16-21
FT
78%
18-23
Play-by-play · 378 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 86·LV 90
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 86·LV 90
+0.7pp
- Q4·2.4
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
SEA 86·LV 90
+1pp
- Q4·5.4
Brittney Sykes misses 24-foot three point jumper
SEA 86·LV 90
+5pp
- Q4·10.4
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
SEA 86·LV 90
- Q4·12.5
Jackie Young misses 21-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 86·LV 90
- Q4·23.1
Aces Full timeout
SEA 86·LV 90
+3pp
- Q4·40.0
Nneka Ogwumike makes 3-foot layup (Brittney Sykes assists)
·
SEA 86·LV 90
−3pp
- Q4·51.0
Jackie Young makes 24-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
SEA 84·LV 90
+12pp
- Q4·1:11
Brittney Sykes makes 9-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 84·LV 87
−5pp
- Q4·1:24
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 82·LV 87
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:24
Aces offensive team rebound
SEA 82·LV 86
−3pp
- Q4·1:24
A'ja Wilson misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 82·LV 86
−3pp
- Q4·1:24
Brittney Sykes personal foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 82·LV 86
+6pp
- Q4·1:35
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
SEA 82·LV 86
+6pp
- Q4·1:35
Skylar Diggins enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
SEA 81·LV 86
- Q4·1:35
NaLyssa Smith shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 81·LV 86
−10pp
- Q4·1:35
Brittney Sykes makes layup
SEA 81·LV 86
−3pp
- Q4·1:42
Jackie Young makes 3-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 79·LV 86
+3pp
- Q4·1:42
Jackie Young offensive rebound
SEA 79·LV 84
+4pp
- Q4·1:44
Brittney Sykes blocks Jewell Loyd 's 5-foot two point shot
·
SEA 79·LV 84
−3pp
- Q4·1:49
Erica Wheeler bad pass (Jewell Loyd steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 79·LV 84
+5pp
- Q4·2:04
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
SEA 79·LV 84
−1pp
- Q4·2:05
A'ja Wilson misses 8-foot two point shot
SEA 79·LV 84
−3pp
- Q4·2:22
Nneka Ogwumike makes layup (Brittney Sykes assists)
·
SEA 79·LV 84
−3pp
- Q4·2:31
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
SEA 77·LV 84
−0.7pp
- Q4·2:34
Jackie Young misses 24-foot three point jumper
SEA 77·LV 84
−2pp
- Q4·2:48
Dominique Malonga makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 77·LV 84
- Q4·2:48
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 76·LV 84
+3pp
- Q4·2:48
Dominique Malonga misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 76·LV 84
+3pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
LV
Home
32-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-69
48
FG %
45
6-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-22
16-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-23
21
Assists
20
7
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28780
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- A'ja WilsonLV1.0± 1.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
LV
41.6%
FG%
44.9
▶49.7%
34.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.9%
79.5
PPG
86.0
▶91.0
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.6