Jun 10, 25sim 97
558
20(H)77
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+19GS
GS
10-9
8061
IND
9-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 80–61. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Veronica Burton
G · #22
20.9Game score
21
Pts
8
Reb
6
Ast
IND · top performer
Makayla Timpson
F · #21
11.5Game score
10
Pts
6
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS10-9
8061
IND9-10
GS10-9IND9-10
GS
10-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 19 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| 28 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | +22 | |
| 19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 34 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +22 | |
| 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3 | |
| 10 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| 25 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +15 | |
| 14 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| Team | 80 | 47 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 16 | ||
| DNP: S. Talbot, C. Zandalasini | ||||||||
IND
9-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 27 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -25 | |
| 30 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -16 | |
| 27 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -20 | |
| 25 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | |
| 20 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | |
| 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -18 | |
| 24 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| Team | 61 | 36 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 14 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
37
FG %
31
18
Ast
15
Season series
GS wins series 3-0
Jun 20IND77@GS88
IND77@GS88Jul 9GS80@IND61today
GS80@IND61todaySep 1IND63@GS75
IND63@GS75Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:33
GSV. Burton
GGame leader · 34 min
21 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
INDM. Timpson
FGame leader · 20 min
10 PTS · 6 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
GS beat IND 80-61. V. Burton led with 21 PTS, 8 REB, 6 AST. GS outscored the other side 20-9 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 31 REB · 12 AST
GS 42
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST
GS 15
INDstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
39 PTS · 17 REB · 14 AST
GS 18
Bench(5)
22 PTS · 19 REB · 1 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS2nd Quarter · 5:00 · 31-30
+8pp→ 44% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · shooting foul
IND3rd Quarter · 2:33 · 55-50
+9pp→ 35% WP
Janelle Salaun · misses 11-foot two point shot
GS3rd Quarter · 1:24 · 60-50
+7pp→ 87% WP
Sophie Cunningham · misses 27-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 21 | 20 | 23 | 16 | 80 |
| IND | 23 | 9 | 19 | 10 | 61 |
Period scoring
GS won 3 · IND won 1
21
23
Q1
Burton 5
Mitchell 6
20
9
Q2
Hayes 4
Hull 3
23
19
Q3
Thornton 7
Timpson 6
16
10
Q4
Burton 6
Timpson 4
GS
IND
Shooting comparison
GS
IND
37%
26-70
FG
31%
21-68
38%
12-32
3PT
22%
6-27
76%
16-21
FT
93%
13-14
Play-by-play · 405 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 80·IND 61
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 80·IND 61
- Q4·9.0
Damiris Dantas defensive rebound
GS 80·IND 61
- Q4·12.0
Kate Martin misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 80·IND 61
- Q4·26.1
Janelle Salaun offensive rebound
GS 80·IND 61
- Q4·26.1
Janelle Salaun misses layup
GS 80·IND 61
- Q4·29.0
Kaitlyn Chen offensive rebound
GS 80·IND 61
- Q4·32.1
Janelle Salaun misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 80·IND 61
- Q4·36.1
Laeticia Amihere offensive rebound
GS 80·IND 61
- Q4·38.0
Laeticia Amihere misses driving layup
GS 80·IND 61
- Q4·59.1
Makayla Timpson makes 8-foot hook shot (Aari McDonald assists)
·
GS 80·IND 61
- Q4·1:11
Laeticia Amihere makes driving layup (Kaitlyn Chen assists)
·
GS 80·IND 59
- Q4·1:34
Makayla Timpson makes layup (Aari McDonald assists)
·
GS 78·IND 59
- Q4·1:36
Sydney Colson enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
GS 78·IND 57
- Q4·1:36
Fever offensive team rebound
GS 78·IND 57
- Q4·1:38
Kelsey Mitchell misses 25-foot three point shot
GS 78·IND 57
- Q4·1:42
Makayla Timpson defensive rebound
GS 78·IND 57
- Q4·1:46
Kate Martin misses driving layup
GS 78·IND 57
- Q4·2:08
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 78·IND 57
- Q4·2:08
Kaitlyn Chen enters the game for Monique Billings
·
GS 78·IND 56
- Q4·2:08
Laeticia Amihere enters the game for Kayla Thornton
·
GS 78·IND 56
- Q4·2:08
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 78·IND 56
- Q4·2:08
Veronica Burton shooting foul
GS 78·IND 55
- Q4·2:18
Sophie Cunningham defensive rebound
GS 78·IND 55
- Q4·2:20
Janelle Salaun misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
GS 78·IND 55
- Q4·2:31
Janelle Salaun defensive rebound
GS 78·IND 55
- Q4·2:35
Aari McDonald misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 78·IND 55
- Q4·2:43
Veronica Burton makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 78·IND 55
- Q4·2:43
Kate Martin enters the game for Tiffany Hayes
·
GS 77·IND 55
- Q4·2:43
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
GS 77·IND 55
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
IND
Home
26-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
21-68
37
FG %
31
12-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-27
16-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-14
18
Assists
15
16
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS0.9± 2.4low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
IND
41.3%
FG%
44.9
▶45.4%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.1%
86.4
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4