Jul 16, 25sim 96
12968958
14(H)67
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9ATL
GS
9-9
8190
ATL
12-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Golden State Valkyries, 90–81.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Monique Billings
F · #25
14.5Game score
19
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
18.8Game score
24
Pts
1
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS9-9
8190
ATL12-7
GS9-9ATL12-7
GS
9-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 29 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 25 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | |
| 27 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -3 | |
| 26 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | |
| 17 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 18 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 15 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| Team | 81 | 29 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 21 | ||
| DNP: C. Zandalasini, C. Leite | ||||||||
ATL
12-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 18 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | |
| 35 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | |
| 26 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 34 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +16 | |
| 31 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +21 | |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| Team | 90 | 31 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 10 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
44
19
Ast
24
Season series
ATL wins series 2-1
Jul 7GS81@ATL90today
GS81@ATL90todayJul 29GS77@ATL75
GS77@ATL75Aug 18ATL79@GS63
ATL79@GS63Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 7:06
GSM. Billings
FGame leader · 29 min
19 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 35 min
24 PTS · 1 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
ATL beat GS 90-81. A. Gray led with 24 PTS, 1 REB, 4 AST. ATL outscored the other side 26-13 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 22 REB · 14 AST
GS 32
Bench(5)
24 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
GS 16
ATLstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 22 REB · 22 AST
GS 65
Bench(6)
19 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
GS 16
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL4th Quarter · 7:06 · 73-72
+18pp→ 52% WP
Monique Billings · bad pass
ATL4th Quarter · 5:46 · 75-75
+14pp→ 52% WP
Rhyne Howard · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)
ATL4th Quarter · 4:34 · 75-77
+13pp→ 80% WP
Kayla Thornton · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 26 | 19 | 23 | 13 | 81 |
| ATL | 16 | 27 | 21 | 26 | 90 |
Period scoring
GS won 2 · ATL won 2
26
16
Q1
Burton 9
Gray 9
19
27
Q2
Thornton 5
Griner 8
23
21
Q3
Thornton 8
Jones 9
13
26
Q4
Billings 4
Griner 20
GS
ATL
Shooting comparison
GS
ATL
48%
30-63
FG
44%
29-66
41%
12-29
3PT
35%
11-31
100%
9-9
FT
88%
21-24
Play-by-play · 376 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 81·ATL 90
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 81·ATL 90
- Q4·18.1
Veronica Burton out of bounds bad pass turnover
GS 81·ATL 90
- Q4·22.0
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 81·ATL 90
- Q4·22.0
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 81·ATL 90
- Q4·22.0
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 81·ATL 89
- Q4·22.0
Kate Martin personal take foul
GS 81·ATL 88
- Q4·30.1
Dream Full timeout
GS 81·ATL 88
+0.5pp
- Q4·42.2
Tiffany Hayes out of bounds bad pass turnover
GS 81·ATL 88
+2pp
- Q4·44.0
Golden State Valkyries timeout
GS 81·ATL 88
- Q4·44.0
Jordin Canada makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 81·ATL 88
- Q4·44.0
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
GS 81·ATL 87
- Q4·44.0
Dream offensive team rebound
GS 81·ATL 87
−0.9pp
- Q4·44.0
Jordin Canada misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 81·ATL 87
−0.5pp
- Q4·44.0
Veronica Burton personal take foul
GS 81·ATL 87
+2pp
- Q4·55.1
Veronica Burton makes two point shot
GS 81·ATL 87
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:03
Monique Billings defensive rebound
GS 79·ATL 87
- Q4·1:04
Allisha Gray misses 26-foot three point jumper
GS 79·ATL 87
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:13
Naz Hillmon offensive rebound
GS 79·ATL 87
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:14
Rhyne Howard misses 5-foot pullup jump shot
GS 79·ATL 87
- Q4·1:34
Monique Billings makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 79·ATL 87
+0.8pp
- Q4·1:34
Monique Billings makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 78·ATL 87
−1pp
- Q4·1:34
Brionna Jones shooting foul
GS 77·ATL 87
−0.8pp
- Q4·1:35
Monique Billings offensive rebound
GS 77·ATL 87
- Q4·1:36
Kayla Thornton misses layup
GS 77·ATL 87
- Q4·1:41
Tiffany Hayes enters the game for Temi Fagbenle
·
GS 77·ATL 87
- Q4·1:41
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 77·ATL 87
- Q4·1:42
Naz Hillmon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)
·
GS 77·ATL 87
+2pp
- Q4·2:00
Monique Billings makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Veronica Burton assists)
·
GS 77·ATL 84
- Q4·2:22
Naz Hillmon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brionna Jones assists)
·
GS 75·ATL 84
+3pp
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
30-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-66
48
FG %
44
12-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-31
9-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-24
19
Assists
24
21
Turnovers
10
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS0.9± 2.4low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
ATL
41.3%
FG%
44.9
▶43.5%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
31.7%
86.4
PPG
◀
86.0
83.5
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.5
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8