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FINAL+27IND
LV

LV

8-9

5481
IND

IND

9-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBAThu, Jul 3FinalSeriesIND wins series 2-1

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever held off Las Vegas Aces, 81–54. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LV · top performer

LV
A'ja Wilson

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

17.3Game score

29

Pts

3

Reb

1

Ast

IND · top performer

IND
Kelsey Mitchell

Kelsey Mitchell

G · #0

19.0Game score

25

Pts

0

Reb

6

Ast

WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
54
81
LV8-9IND9-8
LV

LV

8-9

54
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
K. StokesK. Stokes★C · #41
12230100-5
A. WilsonA. Wilson★C · #22
262931013-17
C. GrayC. Gray★G · #12
23232105-16
J. LoydJ. Loyd★G · #24
30242001-22
J. YoungJ. Young★G · #0
25611002-19
N. SmithN. SmithF · #3
23470103-16
D. EvansD. EvansG · #11
22313001-11
A. NyeA. NyeG · #13
26423102-25
Team5426124117
DNP: M. Gustafson
IND

IND

9-8

81
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. HowardN. Howard★F · #6
2511103011+21
A. BostonA. Boston★C · #7
242072001+14
K. MitchellK. Mitchell★G · #0
292506202+19
A. McDonaldA. McDonald★G · #2
31877014+26
L. HullL. Hull★G · #10
28762001+20
M. TimpsonM. TimpsonF · #21
14230211+7
S. ColsonS. ColsonG · #51
21603002+8
S. CunninghamS. CunninghamG · #8
24231100+17
Team8137245312
DNP: C. Clark

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

26

FG %

49

12

Ast

24

Playoff series

LV wins series 3-2

Sep 21INDIND89@LVLV73
Sep 24INDIND68@LVLV90
Sep 26LVLV84@INDIND72
Sep 28LVLV83@INDIND90
Oct 1INDIND98@LVLV107

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLV ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:30

LVLV
A. Wilson

A. Wilson

C

Game leader · 26 min

29 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST

INDIND
K. Mitchell

K. Mitchell

G

Game leader · 29 min

25 PTS · 0 REB · 6 AST

How it ended

IND beat LV 81-54. K. Mitchell paced them with 25 PTS, 0 REB, 6 AST. IND outscored the other side 25-10 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs LV

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
LVLVstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

41 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST

GS 17

Bench(5)

13 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

INDINDstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 30 REB · 20 AST

GS 61

Bench(4)

10 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST

GS 7

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
IND2nd Quarter · 7:30 · 17-27
+7pp→ 84% WP

Jewell Loyd · offensive foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
LV141023754
IND2125221381

Period scoring

LV won 1 · IND won 3

14
21

Q1

Wilson 10

Boston 8

10
25

Q2

Wilson 7

McDonald 6

23
22

Q3

Wilson 16

Mitchell 10

7
13

Q4

Gray 2

Boston 6

LV
IND

Shooting comparison

LV
IND

26%

16-61

FG

49%

31-63

19%

3-16

3PT

31%

5-16

86%

19-22

FT

82%

14-17

Play-by-play · 390 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    LV 54·IND 81

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    LV 54·IND 81

  3. Q4·21.0

    shot clock turnover

    LV 54·IND 81

  4. Q4·45.1

    Sophie Cunningham defensive rebound

    LV 54·IND 81

  5. Q4·47.0

    Joyner Holmes misses 27-foot three point jumper

    LV 54·IND 81

  6. Q4·1:04

    Kierstan Bell defensive rebound

    LV 54·IND 81

  7. Q4·1:05

    Makayla Timpson misses 6-foot two point shot

    LV 54·IND 81

  8. Q4·1:30

    Makayla Timpson defensive rebound

    LV 54·IND 81

  9. Q4·1:32

    Kierstan Bell misses 27-foot three point jumper

    LV 54·IND 81

  10. Q4·1:36

    Joyner Holmes offensive rebound

    LV 54·IND 81

  11. Q4·1:38

    Kierstan Bell misses 16-foot two point shot

    LV 54·IND 81

  12. Q4·1:51

    shot clock turnover

    LV 54·IND 81

  13. Q4·2:17

    Fever delay of game violation

    LV 54·IND 81

  14. Q4·2:17

    Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Aari McDonald

    ·

    LV 54·IND 81

  15. Q4·2:17

    Dana Evans back court turnover

    LV 54·IND 81

  16. Q4·2:19

    Aces offensive team rebound

    LV 54·IND 81

  17. Q4·2:21

    NaLyssa Smith misses driving floating jump shot

    LV 54·IND 81

  18. Q4·2:31

    NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound

    LV 54·IND 81

  19. Q4·2:32

    Brianna Turner misses 15-foot jumper

    LV 54·IND 81

  20. Q4·2:34

    Aari McDonald offensive rebound

    LV 54·IND 81

  21. Q4·2:36

    Aari McDonald misses layup

    LV 54·IND 81

  22. Q4·2:44

    Dana Evans personal foul

    LV 54·IND 81

  23. Q4·2:49

    Aari McDonald defensive rebound

    LV 54·IND 81

  24. Q4·2:51

    Dana Evans misses 17-foot pullup jump shot

    LV 54·IND 81

  25. Q4·2:57

    Sydney Colson personal foul

    LV 54·IND 81

  26. Q4·3:03

    Aari McDonald enters the game for Sophie Cunningham

    ·

    LV 54·IND 81

  27. Q4·3:03

    Lexie Hull enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell

    ·

    LV 54·IND 81

  28. Q4·3:03

    Makayla Timpson loose ball foul

    LV 54·IND 81

  29. Q4·3:03

    Aces offensive team rebound

    LV 54·IND 81

  30. Q4·3:04

    Joyner Holmes misses 15-foot pullup jump shot

    LV 54·IND 81

Team stats

LV

Away

Stat

IND

Home

16-61

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-63

26

FG %

49

3-16

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-16

19-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-17

12

Assists

24

17

Turnovers

12

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · LV favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(IND win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(IND win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(IND win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    23.5± 12.0low
  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    19.4± 9.7low
  • Kelsey MitchellIND
    19.3± 7.5low

Rebounds

  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    7.2± 4.5low
  • A'ja WilsonLV
    6.9± 5.6low
  • Aliyah BostonIND
    6.6± 6.4low

Assists

  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    7.0± 3.5low
  • Chelsea GrayLV
    6.3± 2.4low
  • Jackie YoungLV
    5.2± 3.1low

Blocks

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    1.9± 1.5low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Chelsea GrayLV
    1.0± 1.2low

Steals

  • Aliyah BostonIND
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    1.1± 1.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

LV

LV

league avg

IND

IND

49.7%

FG%

◀

44.9

45.4%

34.9%

3PT %

◀

33.0

32.1%

91.0

PPG

86.0

▶

92.9

22.1

Assists / G

18.0

22.3

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · wehoop