Jul 23, 25sim 85
1968
8(H)91
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4MIN
WSH
13-17
7680
MIN
26-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Washington Mystics, 80–76. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
21.1Game score
26
Pts
1
Reb
4
Ast
MIN · top performer
Alanna Smith
F · #8
20.5Game score
25
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH13-17
7680
MIN26-5
WSH13-17MIN26-5
WSH
13-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +16 | |
| 28 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| 29 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 28 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
| 29 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -12 | |
| 11 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 20 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| Team | 76 | 32 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 18 | ||
| DNP: J. Sheldon, G. Amoore | ||||||||
MIN
26-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 21 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | |
| 36 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | |
| 32 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
eFG%.47757 AST/TO1.343 TS%.54729 | ||||||||
| 30 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | |
| 17 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| 29 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +5 | |
| Team | 80 | 22 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 14 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, C. Taylor, A. Kosu, Y. Anderson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
53
23
Ast
22
Season series
MIN wins series 2-1
Jun 25MIN64@WSH68
MIN64@WSH68Jul 4WSH75@MIN92
WSH75@MIN92Aug 8WSH76@MIN80today
WSH76@MIN80todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 27pp · 4th Quarter · 1:30
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 28 min
26 PTS · 1 REB · 4 AST
MINA. Smith
FGame leader · 36 min
25 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
MIN beat WSH 80-76. A. Smith paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. MIN outscored the other side 23-13 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 20 REB · 17 AST
GS 37
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST
GS 19
MINstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 20 REB · 19 AST
GS 48
Bench(3)
24 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH4th Quarter · 2:44 · 69-71
+19pp→ 44% WP
DiJonai Carrington · shooting foul
MIN4th Quarter · 2:05 · 70-74
+23pp→ 84% WP
Shakira Austin · misses layup
MIN4th Quarter · 19.5 · 76-78
+19pp→ 80% WP
Sonia Citron · vs. Kayla McBride (Courtney Williams gains possession)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 22 | 13 | 20 | 21 | 76 |
| MIN | 15 | 23 | 20 | 22 | 80 |
Period scoring
WSH won 1 · MIN won 2
22
15
Q1
Austin 6
Shepard 9
13
23
Q2
Olsen 6
Williams 7
20
20
Q3
Citron 8
Smith 10
21
22
Q4
Citron 11
Smith 8
WSH
MIN
Shooting comparison
WSH
MIN
48%
30-63
FG
53%
31-59
48%
10-21
3PT
36%
8-22
67%
6-9
FT
67%
10-15
Play-by-play · 361 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 76·MIN 80
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 76·MIN 80
+1pp
- Q4·2.1
Kiki Iriafen offensive rebound
WSH 76·MIN 80
+0.5pp
- Q4·5.2
Sug Sutton misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
WSH 76·MIN 80
+6pp
- Q4·13.2
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 76·MIN 80
−3pp
- Q4·13.2
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 76·MIN 79
+1pp
- Q4·13.2
Sonia Citron personal take foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 76·MIN 78
+10pp
- Q4·14.4
Lynx delay of game violationBIG MOMENT
WSH 76·MIN 78
−9pp
- Q4·14.4
DiJonai Carrington enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
WSH 76·MIN 78
- Q4·14.4
Jade Melbourne personal take foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 76·MIN 78
+14pp
- Q4·19.5
Sonia Citron lost ball turnover (Kayla McBride steals)
·
WSH 76·MIN 78
- Q4·19.5
Sonia Citron vs. Kayla McBride (Courtney Williams gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
WSH 76·MIN 78
+19pp
- Q4·35.0
Shakira Austin vs. Alanna Smith (Kiki Iriafen gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
WSH 76·MIN 78
−12pp
- Q4·36.6
Mystics offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
WSH 76·MIN 78
−9pp
- Q4·36.6
(00:36.6) [Lynx] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Lynx] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
WSH 76·MIN 78
+12pp
- Q4·36.6
Lynx Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
WSH 76·MIN 78
−12pp
- Q4·37.6
Sug Sutton misses 11-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
WSH 76·MIN 78
+9pp
- Q4·57.4
Courtney Williams makes 15-foot jumper (Bridget Carleton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 76·MIN 78
+7pp
- Q4·59.5
Lynx timeout
WSH 76·MIN 76
- Q4·59.5
Sonia Citron makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jade Melbourne assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 76·MIN 76
−12pp
- Q4·1:07
Mystics timeout
WSH 73·MIN 76
- Q4·1:07
Kayla McBride makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
WSH 73·MIN 76
−13pp
- Q4·1:30
Bridget Carleton enters the game for DiJonai CarringtonBIG MOMENT
·
WSH 73·MIN 74
+12pp
- Q4·1:30
Lynx defensive team rebound
WSH 73·MIN 74
+2pp
- Q4·1:30
(01:30) [Lynx] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Lynx] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
WSH 73·MIN 74
+27pp
- Q4·1:30
Lynx Coach's ChallengeBIG MOMENT
WSH 73·MIN 74
−19pp
- Q4·1:31
Sonia Citron misses driving layup
WSH 73·MIN 74
−2pp
- Q4·1:37
Mystics Full timeout
WSH 73·MIN 74
- Q4·1:37
DiJonai Carrington out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
WSH 73·MIN 74
−9pp
- Q4·1:39
Lynx Full timeout
WSH 73·MIN 74
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
30-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-59
48
FG %
53
10-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-22
6-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-15
23
Assists
22
18
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Natasha HowardMIN3.7± 2.3low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
MIN
45.7%
FG%
44.7
▶50.1%
28.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.5%
83.4
PPG
85.4
▶88.4
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
15.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶15.3