Jul 6, 25sim 92
1975
8(H)80
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+23MIN
CHI
7-16
6891
MIN
21-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Chicago Sky, 91–68. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Kia Nurse
G · #11
13.1Game score
16
Pts
8
Reb
1
Ast
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
20.0Game score
19
Pts
8
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Chicago Sky at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CHI7-16
6891
MIN21-4
CHI7-16MIN21-4
CHI
7-16
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | |
| 24 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -15 | |
| 25 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -20 | |
| 28 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
| 33 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -20 | |
| 12 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -13 | |
| 27 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| Team | 68 | 36 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 21 | ||
| DNP: M. Onyenwere, C. Vandersloot, M. Jefferson, A. Atkins, M. Davis | ||||||||
MIN
21-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +21 | |
| 27 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +27 | |
| 30 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +23 | |
| 29 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +21 | |
eFG%.47757 AST/TO1.343 TS%.54729 | ||||||||
| 31 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +29 | |
| 13 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 10 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 10 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 15 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| Team | 91 | 31 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 8 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
44
11
Ast
20
Season series
MIN wins series 3-1
Jul 6CHI75@MIN80
CHI75@MIN80Jul 12MIN81@CHI87
MIN81@CHI87Jul 15MIN91@CHI78
MIN91@CHI78Jul 23CHI68@MIN91today
CHI68@MIN91todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowCHI ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 12pp · 2nd Quarter · 10:00
CHIK. Nurse
GGame leader · 33 min
16 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 30 min
19 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
MIN beat CHI 91-68. N. Collier led with 19 PTS, 8 REB, 4 AST. MIN outscored the other side 29-14 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 32 REB · 6 AST
GS 22
Bench(3)
20 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST
GS 13
MINstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST
GS 62
Bench(5)
22 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
GS 19
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCHI2nd Quarter · 10:00 · 24-18
+12pp→ 37% WP
Alanna Smith · enters the game for Diamond Miller
MIN2nd Quarter · 9:36 · 24-21
+7pp→ 70% WP
Alanna Smith · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Napheesa Collier assists)
MIN2nd Quarter · 6:04 · 29-27
+8pp→ 71% WP
Kamilla Cardoso · misses driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 24 | 14 | 12 | 18 | 68 |
| MIN | 18 | 29 | 23 | 21 | 91 |
Period scoring
CHI won 1 · MIN won 3
24
18
Q1
Banham 6
Carleton 6
14
29
Q2
Nurse 5
Smith 13
12
23
Q3
Westbeld 5
Collier 11
18
21
Q4
Nurse 6
Collier 5
CHI
MIN
Shooting comparison
CHI
MIN
39%
24-61
FG
44%
31-70
44%
7-16
3PT
31%
9-29
81%
13-16
FT
83%
20-24
Play-by-play · 391 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 68·MIN 91
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 68·MIN 91
- Q4·1.2
shot clock turnover
CHI 68·MIN 91
- Q4·25.2
Diamond Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 68·MIN 91
- Q4·25.2
Diamond Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 68·MIN 90
- Q4·25.2
Rebecca Allen personal foul
CHI 68·MIN 89
- Q4·34.1
Kia Nurse makes 26-foot three point jumper
CHI 68·MIN 89
- Q4·34.1
Kia Nurse offensive rebound
CHI 65·MIN 89
- Q4·37.1
Maria Kliundikova blocks Hailey Van Lith 's 3-foot driving layup
·
CHI 65·MIN 89
- Q4·56.2
Jessica Shepard makes 2-foot layup (Courtney Williams assists)
· ·
CHI 65·MIN 89
- Q4·1:14
shot clock turnover
CHI 65·MIN 87
- Q4·1:38
Jessica Shepard makes 1-foot layup (Courtney Williams assists)
· ·
CHI 65·MIN 87
- Q4·1:51
Kia Nurse makes 24-foot three point jumper (Hailey Van Lith assists)
·
CHI 65·MIN 85
- Q4·2:03
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 62·MIN 85
- Q4·2:03
Lynx offensive team rebound
CHI 62·MIN 84
- Q4·2:03
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 62·MIN 84
- Q4·2:03
Rebecca Allen shooting foul
CHI 62·MIN 84
- Q4·2:20
Maddy Westbeld makes 4-foot two point shot
CHI 62·MIN 84
- Q4·2:20
Maddy Westbeld offensive rebound
CHI 60·MIN 84
- Q4·2:24
Elizabeth Williams misses driving layup
·
CHI 60·MIN 84
- Q4·2:39
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu personal foul
CHI 60·MIN 84
- Q4·2:52
Diamond Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 60·MIN 84
- Q4·2:52
Diamond Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 60·MIN 83
- Q4·2:52
Rebecca Allen enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
·
CHI 60·MIN 82
- Q4·2:52
Kamilla Cardoso shooting foul
CHI 60·MIN 82
- Q4·2:55
Kia Nurse bad pass (Courtney Williams steals)
· ·
CHI 60·MIN 82
- Q4·3:07
Kamilla Cardoso defensive rebound
CHI 60·MIN 82
- Q4·3:09
Maria Kliundikova misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 60·MIN 82
- Q4·3:09
Maria Kliundikova makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 60·MIN 82
- Q4·3:09
Kamilla Cardoso shooting foul
CHI 60·MIN 81
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
24-61
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-70
39
FG %
44
7-16
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-29
13-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-24
11
Assists
20
21
Turnovers
8
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
MIN
41.1%
FG%
44.7
▶50.1%
25.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.5%
82.8
PPG
85.4
▶88.4
19.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
11.0
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.3