Jun 22, 25sim 95
666
8(H)82
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5MIN
CHI
5-12
7580
MIN
17-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Chicago Sky, 80–75.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Rachel Banham
G · #24
13.1Game score
20
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
MIN · top performer
Courtney Williams
G · #10
21.3Game score
25
Pts
8
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Chicago Sky at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CHI5-12
7580
MIN17-2
CHI5-12MIN17-2
CHI
5-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
| 37 | 16 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | +2 | |
| 36 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 27 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 33 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 75 | 45 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 13 | ||
| DNP: C. Vandersloot, M. Jefferson | ||||||||
MIN
17-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 24 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -6 | |
| 32 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -12 | |
| 33 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | |
eFG%.47757 AST/TO1.343 TS%.54729 | ||||||||
| 31 | 25 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| 12 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 12 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +16 | |
| 16 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +13 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| Team | 80 | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 8 | ||
| DNP: A. Pili, A. Kosu, K. Samuelson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
37
FG %
42
21
Ast
21
Season series
MIN wins series 3-1
Jul 6CHI75@MIN80today
CHI75@MIN80todayJul 12MIN81@CHI87
MIN81@CHI87Jul 15MIN91@CHI78
MIN91@CHI78Jul 23CHI68@MIN91
CHI68@MIN91Headlines · top performers
Game flowCHI ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 14pp · 3rd Quarter · 29.1
CHIR. Banham
GGame leader · 27 min
20 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
MINC. Williams
GGame leader · 31 min
25 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
MIN beat CHI 80-75. C. Williams paced them with 25 PTS, 8 REB, 6 AST. MIN outscored the other side 28-13 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 93% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 39 REB · 17 AST
GS 53
Bench(4)
5 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST
MINstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 25 REB · 14 AST
GS 46
Bench(4)
19 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN3rd Quarter · 29.1 · 49-56
+14pp→ 89% WP
Maddy Westbeld · bad pass (Diamond Miller steals)
CHI4th Quarter · 57.2 · 70-74
+11pp→ 16% WP
Napheesa Collier · misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI4th Quarter · 17.0 · 75-77
+10pp→ 16% WP
Rachel Banham · makes 23-foot three pointer (Elizabeth Williams assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 24 | 13 | 15 | 23 | 75 |
| MIN | 10 | 28 | 18 | 24 | 80 |
Period scoring
CHI won 1 · MIN won 3
24
10
Q1
Williams 6
Williams 4
13
28
Q2
Banham 9
Williams 7
15
18
Q3
Nurse 3
Williams 11
23
24
Q4
Reese 6
Collier 9
CHI
MIN
Shooting comparison
CHI
MIN
37%
29-78
FG
42%
30-72
43%
10-23
3PT
24%
6-25
88%
7-8
FT
82%
14-17
Play-by-play · 394 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 75·MIN 80
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 75·MIN 80
- Q4·0.1
Sky offensive team rebound
CHI 75·MIN 80
- Q4·0.1
Alanna Smith blocks Angel Reese 's 4-foot two point shot
·
CHI 75·MIN 80
+0.6pp
- Q4·3.0
Angel Reese offensive rebound
CHI 75·MIN 80
- Q4·3.0
Ariel Atkins misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 75·MIN 80
+2pp
- Q4·8.0
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 75·MIN 80
−0.9pp
- Q4·8.0
Michaela Onyenwere enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
CHI 75·MIN 79
- Q4·8.0
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 75·MIN 79
- Q4·8.0
Rachel Banham personal take foul
CHI 75·MIN 78
+3pp
- Q4·8.0
Napheesa Collier defensive rebound
CHI 75·MIN 78
+3pp
- Q4·9.1
Alanna Smith blocks Rachel Banham 's 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
CHI 75·MIN 78
+8pp
- Q4·14.1
Rachel Banham enters the game for Michaela Onyenwere
·
CHI 75·MIN 78
- Q4·14.1
Sky timeout
CHI 75·MIN 78
- Q4·14.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 75·MIN 78
- Q4·14.1
Lynx offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 75·MIN 77
−6pp
- Q4·14.1
Kayla McBride misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 75·MIN 77
−3pp
- Q4·14.1
Ariel Atkins personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 75·MIN 77
+10pp
- Q4·16.1
Michaela Onyenwere enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
CHI 75·MIN 77
- Q4·16.1
Lynx Full timeout
CHI 75·MIN 77
- Q4·17.0
Rachel Banham makes 23-foot three pointer (Elizabeth Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CHI 75·MIN 77
−10pp
- Q4·22.1
Rachel Banham enters the game for Michaela Onyenwere
·
CHI 72·MIN 77
- Q4·22.1
Sky Full timeout
CHI 72·MIN 77
- Q4·22.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 72·MIN 77
- Q4·22.1
Lynx offensive team rebound
CHI 72·MIN 76
−3pp
- Q4·22.1
Kayla McBride misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 72·MIN 76
−1pp
- Q4·22.1
Ariel Atkins personal take foul
CHI 72·MIN 76
+4pp
- Q4·23.1
Michaela Onyenwere enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
CHI 72·MIN 76
- Q4·23.1
Lynx timeout
CHI 72·MIN 76
- Q4·23.1
Angel Reese makes driving layup (Kia Nurse assists)
·
CHI 72·MIN 76
−4pp
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
29-78
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-72
37
FG %
42
10-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-25
7-8
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-17
21
Assists
21
13
Turnovers
8
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
MIN
41.1%
FG%
44.7
▶50.1%
25.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.5%
82.8
PPG
85.4
▶88.4
19.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
11.0
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.3