WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+6PHX

PHX

8-4

7670

5-5

WNBASun, Jun 15FinalSeriesLV wins series 3-1

Recap · WNBA

hoenix Mercury went into Las Vegas Aces and beat them, 76–70.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHX · top performer

Satou Sabally

F · #0

19.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LV · top performer

Jewell Loyd

G · #24

15.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	+/-	REB	AST
Starters
A. ThomasF · #25	29	14	7-11	—	—	+5	6	13
K. WestbeldF · #24	15	1	0-3	0-3	1-2	0	1	0
S. SaballyF · #0	30	22	6-15	3-8	7-7	+4	9	3
K. CopperG · #2	18	11	4-9	1-3	2-2	+2	2	1
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	21	0	0-3	—	—	+1	4	1
Bench
N. MackF · #4	15	3	1-2	—	1-1	0	7	0
M. MusaC · #20	7	0	0-1	—	—	+1	1	0
S. WhitcombG · #33	23	18	7-14	4-8	—	+4	2	0
K. LaksaG · #9	18	4	2-8	0-5	—	+6	3	2
L. HeldG · #1	23	3	1-7	1-5	—	+7	1	2
Team		76	28-73	9-32	11-12		36	22
DNP: K. Brown, M. McConnell

DNP: K. Brown, M. McConnell

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	+/-	REB	AST
Starters
K. StokesC · #41	29	0	0-5	0-2	—	-2	14	1
C. GrayG · #12	38	20	8-17	1-6	3-3	-4	10	4
T. MitchellG · #3	15	4	1-2	1-2	1-2	-8	0	0
J. LoydG · #24	32	17	6-11	3-8	2-2	-5	6	2
J. YoungG · #0	32	15	4-14	2-5	5-5	-4	3	5
Bench
C. Parker-TyusF · #32	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. HolmesF · #8	3	0	0-1	—	—	+2	0	0
K. BellF · #1	14	8	2-3	2-3	2-2	0	2	0
E. KitleyC · #33	11	0	0-2	—	—	-4	2	0
D. EvansG · #11	11	4	2-6	0-1	—	-4	0	0
A. NyeG · #13	15	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	-1	1	2
Team		70	23-64	9-28	15-16		38	14

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

LV wins series 4-0

Oct 4

PHX86@

LV89

Oct 5

PHX78@

LV91

Oct 9

LV90@

PHX88

Oct 11

LV97@

PHX86

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHX ↔ LV

Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 1:13

PHX

S. Sabally

Game leader · 30 min

22 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

J. Loyd

Game leader · 32 min

17 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

PHX beat LV 76-70. S. Sabally led with 22 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST. Jackie Young's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

48 PTS · 22 REB · 18 AST

GS 40

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

GS 21

LVstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 33 REB · 12 AST

GS 38

Bench(6)

14 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST

GS 6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LV4th Quarter · 6:27 · 67-65

+12pp→ 42% WP

Kierstan Bell · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jewell Loyd assists)

PHX4th Quarter · 1:25 · 76-70

+15pp→ 91% WP

Sami Whitcomb · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)

PHX4th Quarter · 1:13 · 76-70

+19pp→ 95% WP

Jackie Young · turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	20	23	17	16	76
LV	20	19	15	16	70

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · LV won 0

Thomas 6

Young 10

Sabally 14

Gray 9

Copper 7

Gray 10

Thomas 6

Bell 5

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

38%

28-73

36%

23-64

28%

9-32

3PT

32%

9-28

92%

11-12

94%

15-16

Play-by-play · 398 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 76·LV 70
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 76·LV 70
Q4·6.1
Chelsea Gray personal take foul
PHX 76·LV 70
Q4·9.1
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 76·LV 70
Q4·12.0
Kiah Stokes misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 76·LV 70
−1pp
Q4·16.2
Chelsea Gray offensive rebound
PHX 76·LV 70
Q4·22.1
Jewell Loyd misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 76·LV 70
−2pp
Q4·28.0
Aces Full timeout
PHX 76·LV 70
Q4·30.2
Aces Full timeout
PHX 76·LV 70
Q4·32.1
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
PHX 76·LV 70
Q4·34.1
Sami Whitcomb misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 76·LV 70
+0.9pp
Q4·48.1
Kiah Stokes lost ball turnover (Monique Akoa Makani steals)
·
PHX 76·LV 70
−3pp
Q4·49.1
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
PHX 76·LV 70
+0.6pp
Q4·51.1
Alyssa Thomas misses 10-foot two point shot
PHX 76·LV 70
+2pp
Q4·1:13
Jackie Young turnoverBIG MOMENT
PHX 76·LV 70
−19pp
Q4·1:13
(01:13) [Mercury] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Mercury] retain their timeout
PHX 76·LV 70
Q4·1:13
Mercury Coach's Challenge
PHX 76·LV 70
Q4·1:13
Jackie Young offensive foul
PHX 76·LV 70
−5pp
Q4·1:25
Sami Whitcomb makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 76·LV 70
−15pp
Q4·1:37
Jewell Loyd makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chelsea Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 73·LV 70
+14pp
Q4·1:44
Alyssa Thomas makes 8-foot two point shot (Satou Sabally assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 73·LV 67
−6pp
Q4·2:06
Mercury defensive team rebound
PHX 71·LV 67
−2pp
Q4·2:10
Jewell Loyd misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 71·LV 67
−6pp
Q4·2:12
(02:12) [Aces] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Aces] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 71·LV 67
+7pp
Q4·2:12
Aces Coach's ChallengeBIG MOMENT
PHX 71·LV 67
−7pp
Q4·2:12
Alyssa Thomas vs. Jackie Young
·
PHX 71·LV 67
−0.7pp
Q4·2:14
Aces offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 71·LV 67
+5pp
Q4·2:14
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Kierstan Bell
·
PHX 71·LV 67
Q4·2:15
Alyssa Thomas blocks Jackie Young 's 9-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
PHX 71·LV 67
+14pp
Q4·2:22
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
PHX 71·LV 67
+2pp

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

Home

28-73

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

23-64

FG %

9-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-28

11-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-16

Assists

Turnovers

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

PHX28/73 · 38%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim3/3

100%

In the paint8/26

31%

Mid-range8/12

67%

Top-of-arc 38/26

31%

Left corner 31/3

33%

Right corner 30/3

LV23/64 · 36%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim1/5

20%

In the paint9/21

43%

Mid-range4/10

40%

Top-of-arc 38/21

38%

Left corner 30/5

Right corner 31/2

50%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
AST/TO2.389

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

PHX28/73 · 38%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim3/3

100%

In the paint8/26

31%

Mid-range8/12

67%

Top-of-arc 38/26

31%

Left corner 31/3

33%

Right corner 30/3

LV23/64 · 36%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim1/5

20%

In the paint9/21

43%

Mid-range4/10

40%

Top-of-arc 38/21

38%

Left corner 30/5

Right corner 31/2

50%

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.2%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
58.5%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
60.3%
P(LV win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
59.4%
P(LV win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LV vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
27.1± 10.0low
Kahleah CopperPHX
19.0± 9.8medium
Jackie YoungLV
15.6± 11.3medium

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.7± 6.3low
Natasha MackPHX
8.1± 3.5medium
NaLyssa SmithLV
7.4± 3.1medium

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.1± 2.5medium
Chelsea GrayLV
6.9± 2.6medium
Jackie YoungLV
6.8± 2.9medium

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
2.4± 2.2low
Natasha MackPHX
1.3± 1.3medium
Cheyenne Parker-TyusLV
0.8± 1.1low

Steals

Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.8± 1.3medium
Monique Akoa MakaniPHX
1.6± 1.0low
A'ja WilsonLV
1.2± 1.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

PHX

league avg

42.0%

FG%

44.4

▶

49.1%

31.5%

3PT %

33.0

▶

37.4%

82.2

PPG

85.4

▶

92.1

19.0

Assists / G

18.0

▶

23.3

12.9

Turnovers / G

13.0

12.9

Data via ESPN · wehoop