Sep 18, 25sim 97
875
129689(H)74
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3SEA
LV
30-14
8386
SEA
23-21
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm held off Las Vegas Aces, 86–83. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
20.2Game score
21
Pts
13
Reb
5
Ast
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
19.4Game score
24
Pts
10
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV30-14
8386
SEA23-21
LV30-14SEA23-21
LV
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 11 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 38 | 21 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | |
| 36 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +5 | |
| 35 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 29 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| Team | 83 | 29 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 11 | ||
| DNP: K. Stokes, M. Gustafson, A. Nye | ||||||||
SEA
23-21
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 23 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -9 | |
| 35 | 26 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +6 | |
| 27 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | |
| 23 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +11 | |
| 22 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 86 | 32 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, T. Mitchell, L. Brown, Z. Cooke | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
46
22
Ast
22
Playoff series
Series tied 1-1
Sep 15SEA77@LV102
SEA77@LV102Sep 17LV83@SEA86today
LV83@SEA86todaySep 19SEA73@LV74
SEA73@LV74Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 26pp · 4th Quarter · 4.7
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 38 min
21 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 34 min
24 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
SEA beat LV 86-83. N. Ogwumike led with 24 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST. SEA outscored the other side 25-14 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST
GS 60
Bench(3)
16 PTS · 1 REB · 4 AST
GS 7
SEAstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 20 REB · 16 AST
GS 46
Bench(2)
22 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA4th Quarter · 31.0 · 83-83
+20pp→ 65% WP
Chelsea Gray · shooting foul
SEA4th Quarter · 27.7 · 83-84
+14pp→ 68% WP
Chelsea Gray · out of bounds bad pass turnover
SEA4th Quarter · 4.7 · 83-86
+26pp→ 94% WP
Skylar Diggins · makes 10-foot pullup jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 22 | 23 | 24 | 14 | 83 |
| SEA | 21 | 23 | 17 | 25 | 86 |
Period scoring
LV won 2 · SEA won 1
22
21
Q1
Wilson 8
Ogwumike 11
23
23
Q2
Wilson 8
Diggins 15
24
17
Q3
Young 14
Ogwumike 11
14
25
Q4
Young 7
Diggins 11
LV
SEA
Shooting comparison
LV
SEA
50%
28-56
FG
46%
33-72
37%
7-19
3PT
50%
10-20
69%
20-29
FT
83%
10-12
Play-by-play · 372 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 83·SEA 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 83·SEA 86
+0.5pp
- Q4·0.4
Kierstan Bell offensive rebound
LV 83·SEA 86
+2pp
- Q4·3.1
Jewell Loyd misses 27-foot three point jumper
LV 83·SEA 86
+3pp
- Q4·4.2
Brittney Sykes enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
LV 83·SEA 86
- Q4·4.2
Aces Full timeout
LV 83·SEA 86
+0.6pp
- Q4·4.7
Skylar Diggins makes 10-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 86
+26pp
- Q4·27.7
Erica Wheeler enters the game for Brittney Sykes
·
LV 83·SEA 84
- Q4·27.7
Storm Full timeout
LV 83·SEA 84
- Q4·27.7
Chelsea Gray out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 84
+14pp
- Q4·31.0
Brittney Sykes enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
LV 83·SEA 84
- Q4·31.0
Aces Full timeout
LV 83·SEA 84
- Q4·31.0
Dominique Malonga makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 84
−11pp
- Q4·31.0
Chelsea Gray shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 83
+20pp
- Q4·31.0
Dominique Malonga makes two point shot (Skylar Diggins assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 83·SEA 83
+12pp
- Q4·32.9
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
LV 83·SEA 81
+2pp
- Q4·37.5
A'ja Wilson misses 16-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 81
+6pp
- Q4·53.3
Skylar Diggins makes 19-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 81
+6pp
- Q4·1:01
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
LV 83·SEA 79
- Q4·1:04
Jewell Loyd misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 79
+11pp
- Q4·1:04
Jewell Loyd makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 83·SEA 79
−1pp
- Q4·1:04
Erica Wheeler personal foulBIG MOMENT
LV 82·SEA 79
−10pp
- Q4·1:24
Erica Wheeler makes 19-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
LV 82·SEA 79
+5pp
- Q4·1:47
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 1
LV 82·SEA 77
+4pp
- Q4·1:47
Erica Wheeler shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 81·SEA 77
−11pp
- Q4·1:47
Jackie Young makes two point shot (Chelsea Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 81·SEA 77
−8pp
- Q4·2:08
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 79·SEA 77
−3pp
- Q4·2:11
Gabby Williams misses 7-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 79·SEA 77
−7pp
- Q4·2:13
Dominique Malonga offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LV 79·SEA 77
+7pp
- Q4·2:17
Nneka Ogwumike misses 9-foot pullup jump shot
LV 79·SEA 77
+2pp
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
28-56
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-72
50
FG %
46
7-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-20
20-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-12
22
Assists
22
11
Turnovers
10
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28780
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- A'ja WilsonLV1.0± 1.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
SEA
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
33.0
34.1%
91.0
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.6