WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SEA

30-14

8386

SEA

23-21

WNBATue, Sep 16FinalSeriestied 2-2

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

20.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SEA · top performer

Nneka Ogwumike

F · #3

19.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLV ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 26pp · 4th Quarter · 4.7

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SmithF · #3	31	7	3-5	0-1	1-2	-2	8	0
K. BellF · #1	11	7	3-3	1-1	—	-7	1	0
A. WilsonC · #22	38	21	7-12	1-2	6-11	-3	13	5
C. GrayG · #12	36	7	3-9	1-2	—	+5	1	9
J. YoungG · #0	35	25	8-17	1-6	8-8	-5	5	4
Bench
C. Parker-TyusF · #32	6	1	—	—	1-2	+4	0	0
J. LoydG · #24	29	13	4-9	3-7	2-4	0	1	2
D. EvansG · #11	14	2	0-1	—	2-2	-7	0	2
Team		83	28-56	7-19	20-29		29	22
DNP: K. Stokes, Gustafson, A. Nye

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #3	34	24	9-19	4-5	2-2	+6	10	3
G. WilliamsF · #5	36	6	2-8	0-2	2-2	+8	1	2
E. MagbegorF · #13	23	4	2-3	0-1	—	-9	5	3
S. DigginsG · #4	35	26	10-20	4-6	2-3	+6	1	7
B. SykesG · #20	27	4	2-6	0-1	0-1	-10	3	1
Bench
D. MalongaC · #14	23	11	4-7	—	3-3	+11	10	3
E. WheelerG · #17	22	11	4-9	2-5	1-1	+3	2	3
Team		86	33-72	10-20	10-12		32	22
DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, T. Mitchell, L. Brown, Z. Cooke

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

28-56

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-72

FG %

7-19

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-20

20-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-12

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 15

SEA77@

LV102

Sep 17

LV83@

SEA86today

Sep 19

SEA73@

LV74

How it ended

SEA beat LV 86-83. N. Ogwumike led with 24 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST. SEA outscored the other side 25-14 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SEA vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST

GS 60

Bench(3)

16 PTS · 1 REB · 4 AST

GS 7

SEAstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 20 REB · 16 AST

GS 46

Bench(2)

22 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEA4th Quarter · 31.0 · 83-83

+20pp→ 65% WP

Chelsea Gray · shooting foul

SEA4th Quarter · 27.7 · 83-84

+14pp→ 68% WP

Chelsea Gray · out of bounds bad pass turnover

SEA4th Quarter · 4.7 · 83-86

+26pp→ 94% WP

Skylar Diggins · makes 10-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	22	23	24	14	83
SEA	21	23	17	25	86

Period scoring

LV won 2 · SEA won 1

Wilson 8

Ogwumike 11

Wilson 8

Diggins 15

Young 14

Ogwumike 11

Young 7

Diggins 11

SEA

Shooting comparison

SEA

50%

28-56

46%

33-72

37%

7-19

3PT

50%

10-20

69%

20-29

83%

10-12

Play-by-play · 372 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 83·SEA 86
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 83·SEA 86
+0.5pp
Q4·0.4
Kierstan Bell offensive rebound
LV 83·SEA 86
+2pp
Q4·3.1
Jewell Loyd misses 27-foot three point jumper
LV 83·SEA 86
+3pp
Q4·4.2
Brittney Sykes enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
LV 83·SEA 86
Q4·4.2
Aces Full timeout
LV 83·SEA 86
+0.6pp
Q4·4.7
Skylar Diggins makes 10-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 86
+26pp
Q4·27.7
Erica Wheeler enters the game for Brittney Sykes
·
LV 83·SEA 84
Q4·27.7
Storm Full timeout
LV 83·SEA 84
Q4·27.7
Chelsea Gray out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 84
+14pp
Q4·31.0
Brittney Sykes enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
LV 83·SEA 84
Q4·31.0
Aces Full timeout
LV 83·SEA 84
Q4·31.0
Dominique Malonga makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 84
−11pp
Q4·31.0
Chelsea Gray shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 83
+20pp
Q4·31.0
Dominique Malonga makes two point shot (Skylar Diggins assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 83·SEA 83
+12pp
Q4·32.9
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
LV 83·SEA 81
+2pp
Q4·37.5
A'ja Wilson misses 16-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 81
+6pp
Q4·53.3
Skylar Diggins makes 19-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 81
+6pp
Q4·1:01
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
LV 83·SEA 79
Q4·1:04
Jewell Loyd misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 83·SEA 79
+11pp
Q4·1:04
Jewell Loyd makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 83·SEA 79
−1pp
Q4·1:04
Erica Wheeler personal foulBIG MOMENT
LV 82·SEA 79
−10pp
Q4·1:24
Erica Wheeler makes 19-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
LV 82·SEA 79
+5pp
Q4·1:47
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 1
LV 82·SEA 77
+4pp
Q4·1:47
Erica Wheeler shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 81·SEA 77
−11pp
Q4·1:47
Jackie Young makes two point shot (Chelsea Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 81·SEA 77
−8pp
Q4·2:08
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 79·SEA 77
−3pp
Q4·2:11
Gabby Williams misses 7-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 79·SEA 77
−7pp
Q4·2:13
Dominique Malonga offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LV 79·SEA 77
+7pp
Q4·2:17
Nneka Ogwumike misses 9-foot pullup jump shot
LV 79·SEA 77
+2pp

Recap · WNBA

eattle Storm held off Las Vegas Aces, 86–83. Decided by 3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

LV28/56 · 50%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim10/11

91%

In the paint5/13

38%

Mid-range6/13

46%

Top-of-arc 37/16

44%

Left corner 30/2

Right corner 30/1

SEA33/72 · 46%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim8/16

50%

In the paint9/24

38%

Mid-range5/11

45%

Top-of-arc 38/15

53%

Left corner 32/4

50%

Right corner 31/2

50%

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

SEA

eFG%

shooting

56.3%

52.8%

TOV%

ball control

13.8%

11.5%

OREB%

offensive glass

17.9%

27.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

35.7%

13.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

LV28/56 · 50%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim10/11

91%

In the paint5/13

38%

Mid-range6/13

46%

Top-of-arc 37/16

44%

Left corner 30/2

Right corner 30/1

SEA33/72 · 46%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim8/16

50%

In the paint9/24

38%

Mid-range5/11

45%

Top-of-arc 38/15

53%

Left corner 32/4

50%

Right corner 31/2

50%

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

28.7%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
41.5%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
39.6%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
41.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
24.9± 8.3high
Jackie YoungLV
17.7± 8.7high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
15.6± 6.7high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
A'ja WilsonLV
9.3± 3.8high
Awa FamSEA
6.3± 3.2high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
7.1± 2.1high
Jackie YoungLV
6.5± 3.1high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.6± 2.6high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.8± 1.3high
Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

A'ja WilsonLV
1.6± 1.5high
Jewell LoydLV
1.6± 0.8high
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.6± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesSeattle Storm

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Dream60Fever77Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop