Aug 3, 25sim 95
987
18(H)78
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+16PHX
PHX
17-11
8367
CHI
7-21
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 83–67.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Kahleah Copper
G · #2
19.6Game score
25
Pts
3
Reb
2
Ast
CHI · top performer
Elizabeth Williams
C · #1
19.2Game score
15
Pts
15
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX17-11
8367
CHI7-21
PHX17-11CHI7-21
PHX
17-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +21 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 19 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +6 | |
| 18 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
| 26 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +37 | |
USG%.30999+ TS%.4510 eFG%.3620 | ||||||||
| 26 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +16 | |
| 23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +11 | |
| 21 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +9 | |
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -22 | |
| 18 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| Team | 83 | 45 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 9 | ||
| DNP: S. Sabally | ||||||||
CHI
7-21
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| 28 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -15 | |
| 25 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -14 | |
| 27 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -19 | |
| 22 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -15 | |
| 21 | 15 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +8 | |
| 17 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 22 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Team | 67 | 40 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 12 | ||
| DNP: A. Reese, C. Vandersloot, A. Atkins | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
37
22
Ast
19
Season series
PHX wins series 4-0
May 28CHI89@PHX94
CHI89@PHX94Jun 21PHX107@CHI86
PHX107@CHI86Aug 3PHX83@CHI67today
PHX83@CHI67todayAug 29CHI79@PHX83
CHI79@PHX83Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ CHI
Biggest swing: 16pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:51
PHXK. Copper
GGame leader · 26 min
25 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST
CHIE. Williams
CGame leader · 21 min
15 PTS · 15 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
PHX beat CHI 83-67. K. Copper paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST. PHX outscored the other side 29-15 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 31 REB · 18 AST
GS 56
Bench(5)
24 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST
GS 20
CHIstarters 54% of ptsStarters(5)
36 PTS · 22 REB · 10 AST
GS 19
Bench(4)
31 PTS · 18 REB · 9 AST
GS 27
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCHI2nd Quarter · 3:50 · 31-30
+8pp→ 40% WP
Michaela Onyenwere · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rachel Banham assists)
PHX2nd Quarter · 1:40 · 39-32
+8pp→ 78% WP
Kahleah Copper · makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeWanna Bonner assists)
CHI2nd Quarter · 4:51 · 27-27
+16pp→ 43% WP
Kia Nurse · enters the game for Sevgi Uzun
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 13 | 29 | 27 | 14 | 83 |
| CHI | 19 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 67 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · CHI won 2
13
19
Q1
Thomas 4
Cardoso 7
29
15
Q2
Copper 10
Westbeld 6
27
17
Q3
Copper 7
Onyenwere 4
14
16
Q4
Copper 6
Williams 7
PHX
CHI
Shooting comparison
PHX
CHI
45%
33-73
FG
37%
26-70
28%
7-25
3PT
25%
5-20
71%
10-14
FT
56%
10-18
Play-by-play · 391 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 83·CHI 67
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 83·CHI 67
- Q4·15.3
Elizabeth Williams makes 18-foot jumper (Hailey Van Lith assists)
·
PHX 83·CHI 67
- Q4·33.3
Elizabeth Williams defensive rebound
PHX 83·CHI 65
- Q4·35.7
Kitija Laksa misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 83·CHI 65
- Q4·41.4
Elizabeth Williams makes two point shot
PHX 83·CHI 65
- Q4·41.4
Elizabeth Williams offensive rebound
PHX 83·CHI 63
- Q4·42.3
Maddy Westbeld misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
PHX 83·CHI 63
- Q4·49.8
Sky offensive team rebound
PHX 83·CHI 63
- Q4·49.8
Kalani Brown blocks Elizabeth Williams 's 2-foot driving layup
·
PHX 83·CHI 63
- Q4·1:02
Elizabeth Williams defensive rebound
PHX 83·CHI 63
- Q4·1:05
Lexi Held misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 83·CHI 63
- Q4·1:16
Sevgi Uzun personal foul
PHX 83·CHI 63
- Q4·1:26
Hailey Van Lith makes 17-foot jumper (Elizabeth Williams assists)
·
PHX 83·CHI 63
- Q4·1:34
Elizabeth Williams defensive rebound
PHX 83·CHI 61
- Q4·1:36
Lexi Held misses driving layup
PHX 83·CHI 61
- Q4·2:02
Sevgi Uzun enters the game for Michaela Onyenwere
·
PHX 83·CHI 61
- Q4·2:02
Maddy Westbeld enters the game for Kia Nurse
· ·
PHX 83·CHI 61
- Q4·2:02
Hailey Van Lith enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
·
PHX 83·CHI 61
- Q4·2:02
Elizabeth Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 83·CHI 61
- Q4·2:02
Sky offensive team rebound
PHX 83·CHI 60
- Q4·2:02
Elizabeth Williams misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 83·CHI 60
- Q4·2:02
Kalani Brown shooting foul
PHX 83·CHI 60
- Q4·2:05
Kalani Brown bad pass (Elizabeth Williams steals)
·
PHX 83·CHI 60
- Q4·2:22
Rachel Banham makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Kamilla Cardoso assists)
·
PHX 83·CHI 60
- Q4·2:31
Rachel Banham defensive rebound
PHX 83·CHI 58
- Q4·2:34
Monique Akoa Makani misses 6-foot two point shot
PHX 83·CHI 58
- Q4·2:46
Kia Nurse makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 83·CHI 58
- Q4·2:46
Sky offensive team rebound
PHX 83·CHI 57
- Q4·2:46
Kia Nurse misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 83·CHI 57
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
33-73
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-70
45
FG %
37
7-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-20
10-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-18
22
Assists
19
9
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 12 players in cohort- Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30999+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
CHI
42.3%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.1%
31.4%
3PT %
◀
32.6
25.9%
83.7
PPG
◀
85.4
82.8
17.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.3
12.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶11.0