Jul 29, 25sim 96
12968977
20(H)75
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+16ATL
WSH
13-15
8399
ATL
18-11
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Washington Mystics, 99–83.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Kiki Iriafen
F · #44
20.7Game score
22
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
ATL · top performer
Brionna Jones
F · #24
20.0Game score
23
Pts
5
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH13-15
8399
ATL18-11
WSH13-15ATL18-11
WSH
13-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 29 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -18 | |
| 26 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
USG%.28780 ORB%.03740 DRB%.12540 | ||||||||
| 26 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | |
| 33 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -16 | |
| 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -7 | |
| 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| Team | 83 | 19 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 22 | ||
ATL
18-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +8 | |
| 36 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | +18 | |
| 35 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +15 | |
| 36 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 5 | +17 | |
| 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 17 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 33 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +22 | |
| Team | 99 | 33 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 21 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
56
19
Ast
26
Season series
ATL wins series 3-1
May 16ATL90@WSH94
ATL90@WSH94Jun 15ATL89@WSH56
ATL89@WSH56Jun 20WSH91@ATL92
WSH91@ATL92Aug 3WSH83@ATL99today
WSH83@ATL99todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 16pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:54
WSHK. Iriafen
FGame leader · 27 min
22 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
ATLB. Jones
FGame leader · 26 min
23 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
ATL beat WSH 99-83. B. Jones led with 23 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST. ATL outscored the other side 28-16 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 88% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 13 REB · 14 AST
GS 53
Bench(5)
10 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
GS 1
ATLstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 28 REB · 21 AST
GS 65
Bench(5)
22 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
GS 19
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH2nd Quarter · 5:06 · 35-23
+8pp→ 70% WP
Sug Sutton · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH2nd Quarter · 4:54 · 35-23
+16pp→ 74% WP
Shakira Austin · enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
ATL2nd Quarter · 2:18 · 37-33
+9pp→ 52% WP
Te-Hina Paopao · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Hillmon assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 23 | 16 | 21 | 23 | 83 |
| ATL | 12 | 28 | 31 | 28 | 99 |
Period scoring
WSH won 1 · ATL won 3
23
12
Q1
Sykes 6
Gray 6
16
28
Q2
Austin 6
Jones 9
21
31
Q3
Iriafen 10
Jones 14
23
28
Q4
Austin 10
Coffey 10
WSH
ATL
Shooting comparison
WSH
ATL
49%
31-63
FG
56%
36-64
25%
3-12
3PT
39%
9-23
90%
18-20
FT
78%
18-23
Play-by-play · 404 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 83·ATL 99
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 83·ATL 99
- Q4·1.3
Sonia Citron makes driving layup (Kiki Iriafen assists)
·
WSH 83·ATL 99
- Q4·21.0
Mystics defensive team rebound
WSH 81·ATL 99
- Q4·22.0
Shakira Austin blocks Nia Coffey's driving layup
·
WSH 81·ATL 99
- Q4·29.7
Sonia Citron makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shakira Austin assists)
·
WSH 81·ATL 99
- Q4·48.5
Nia Coffey makes 2-foot two point shot (Maya Caldwell assists)
·
WSH 78·ATL 99
- Q4·1:05
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
WSH 78·ATL 97
- Q4·1:08
Sonia Citron misses two point shot
WSH 78·ATL 97
- Q4·1:17
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
WSH 78·ATL 97
- Q4·1:17
Dream Full timeout
WSH 78·ATL 97
- Q4·1:17
Brionna Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 78·ATL 97
- Q4·1:17
Brionna Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 78·ATL 96
- Q4·1:17
Kamiah Smalls enters the game for Taylor Thierry
·
WSH 78·ATL 95
- Q4·1:17
Brionna Jones enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
WSH 78·ATL 95
- Q4·1:17
(01:17) [Mystics] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Mystics] charged with a timeout
WSH 78·ATL 95
- Q4·1:17
Mystics Full timeout
WSH 78·ATL 95
- Q4·1:17
Shakira Austin personal foul
WSH 78·ATL 95
- Q4·1:24
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
WSH 78·ATL 95
- Q4·1:24
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Te-Hina Paopao
·
WSH 78·ATL 95
- Q4·1:24
Dream defensive team rebound
WSH 78·ATL 95
- Q4·1:26
Sug Sutton misses 24-foot three point jumper
WSH 78·ATL 95
- Q4·1:43
Te-Hina Paopao makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Jordin Canada assists)
·
WSH 78·ATL 95
- Q4·1:56
Shakira Austin makes 2-foot two point shot (Kiki Iriafen assists)
·
WSH 78·ATL 93
- Q4·1:59
Kiki Iriafen offensive rebound
WSH 76·ATL 93
- Q4·2:02
Shakira Austin misses 23-foot three point jumper
WSH 76·ATL 93
- Q4·2:06
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
WSH 76·ATL 93
- Q4·2:06
Naz Hillmon traveling
WSH 76·ATL 93
- Q4·2:06
Naz Hillmon defensive rebound
WSH 76·ATL 93
- Q4·2:08
Sonia Citron misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH 76·ATL 93
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
31-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-64
49
FG %
56
3-12
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-23
18-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-23
19
Assists
26
22
Turnovers
21
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28780
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
ATL
44.8%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.5%
28.8%
3PT %
33.0
▶31.7%
82.8
PPG
86.0
83.5
17.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.5
15.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.8