Jul 25, 25sim 94
1495
19(H)57
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8PHX
PHX
9-4
8375
CON
2-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 83–75.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
14.3Game score
14
Pts
8
Reb
11
Ast
CON · top performer
Aneesah Morrow
F · #24
14.3Game score
16
Pts
9
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX9-4
8375
CON2-10
PHX9-4CON2-10
PHX
9-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +4 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 23 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +14 | |
| 29 | 12 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +14 | |
| 22 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +17 | |
USG%.30999+ TS%.4510 eFG%.3620 | ||||||||
| 21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 18 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | |
| 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 23 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -14 | |
| 20 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| Team | 83 | 41 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 12 | ||
| DNP: S. Whitcomb, M. McConnell | ||||||||
CON
2-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | |
| 23 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -8 | |
| 19 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 37 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -9 | |
| 24 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | |
| 12 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 23 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| Team | 75 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 13 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
37
18
Ast
20
Season series
PHX wins series 2-1
Jun 18PHX83@CON75today
PHX83@CON75todayAug 6CON66@PHX82
CON66@PHX82Sep 6PHX84@CON87
PHX84@CON87Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:02
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 31 min
14 PTS · 8 REB · 11 AST
CONA. Morrow
FGame leader · 23 min
16 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
PHX beat CON 83-75. A. Thomas led with 14 PTS, 8 REB, 11 AST. PHX outscored the other side 22-9 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 32 REB · 16 AST
GS 44
Bench(5)
35 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
GS 26
CONstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
42 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST
GS 25
Bench(6)
33 PTS · 16 REB · 8 AST
GS 27
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX2nd Quarter · 1:02 · 44-34
+6pp→ 85% WP
Lexi Held · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Satou Sabally assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 22 | 26 | 16 | 19 | 83 |
| CON | 9 | 27 | 17 | 22 | 75 |
Period scoring
PHX won 1 · CON won 3
22
9
Q1
Thomas 5
Brown 3
26
27
Q2
Thomas 6
Sheldon 13
16
17
Q3
Sabally 5
Morrow 12
19
22
Q4
Copper 8
Hartley 9
PHX
CON
Shooting comparison
PHX
CON
41%
26-64
FG
37%
25-68
35%
8-23
3PT
33%
8-24
85%
23-27
FT
74%
17-23
Play-by-play · 410 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 83·CON 75
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 83·CON 75
−3pp
- Q4·9.1
Aneesah Morrow bad pass (Lexi Held steals)
·
PHX 83·CON 75
- Q4·11.1
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
PHX 83·CON 75
- Q4·13.1
Satou Sabally misses layup
PHX 83·CON 75
- Q4·31.0
Mercury timeout
PHX 83·CON 75
- Q4·31.0
Bria Hartley makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 83·CON 75
−0.6pp
- Q4·31.0
Bria Hartley makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 83·CON 74
- Q4·31.0
Kathryn Westbeld shooting foul
PHX 83·CON 73
+0.5pp
- Q4·42.1
Kitija Laksa enters the game for Kahleah Copper
·
PHX 83·CON 73
- Q4·42.1
Sun Full timeout
PHX 83·CON 73
- Q4·43.1
Lexi Held makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
·
PHX 83·CON 73
−1pp
- Q4·57.1
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
PHX 80·CON 73
- Q4·59.0
Olivia Nelson-Ododa misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 80·CON 73
−5pp
- Q4·59.0
Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 80·CON 73
+3pp
- Q4·59.0
Lexi Held enters the game for Monique Akoa Makani
·
PHX 80·CON 72
- Q4·59.0
Monique Akoa Makani shooting foul
PHX 80·CON 72
+2pp
- Q4·1:00
Olivia Nelson-Ododa offensive rebound
PHX 80·CON 72
+1pp
- Q4·1:00
Aneesah Morrow misses two point shot
PHX 80·CON 72
−1pp
- Q4·1:00
Aneesah Morrow offensive rebound
PHX 80·CON 72
+1pp
- Q4·1:02
Bria Hartley misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 80·CON 72
−1pp
- Q4·1:09
Bria Hartley offensive rebound
PHX 80·CON 72
+1pp
- Q4·1:12
Marina Mabrey misses running pullup jump shot
PHX 80·CON 72
−1pp
- Q4·1:17
Alyssa Thomas bad pass (Aneesah Morrow steals)
·
PHX 80·CON 72
+1pp
- Q4·1:33
Monique Akoa Makani lost ball turnover
PHX 80·CON 72
+3pp
- Q4·1:33
Bria Hartley makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 80·CON 72
- Q4·1:33
Sun offensive team rebound
PHX 80·CON 71
−1pp
- Q4·1:33
Bria Hartley misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 80·CON 71
−2pp
- Q4·1:33
Monique Akoa Makani loose ball foul
PHX 80·CON 71
+4pp
- Q4·1:44
Saniya Rivers makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 80·CON 71
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
CON
Home
26-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-68
41
FG %
37
8-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-24
23-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-23
18
Assists
20
12
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 9 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30999+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Kennedy BurkeCON2.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
CON
42.3%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
31.4%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
83.7
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
17.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶17.9
12.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8