Jul 25, 25sim 96
1495
19(H)57
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+15IND
IND
14-12
9378
CHI
7-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 93–78.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
31.5Game score
35
Pts
2
Reb
6
Ast
CHI · top performer
Rachel Banham
G · #24
15.4Game score
26
Pts
1
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND14-12
9378
CHI7-18
IND14-12CHI7-18
IND
14-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 35 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +15 | |
| 30 | 35 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +25 | |
| 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 23 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | |
| 11 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | |
| 22 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +23 | |
| 17 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +21 | |
| 19 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| Team | 93 | 29 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 11 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, D. Dantas, C. Clark | ||||||||
CHI
7-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | |
| 33 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | |
| 36 | 26 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -15 | |
| 28 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 35 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| Team | 78 | 32 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 20 | ||
| DNP: A. Reese, C. Vandersloot, M. Jefferson, A. Atkins, H. Van Lith | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
43
26
Ast
17
Season series
IND wins series 5-0
May 17CHI58@IND93
CHI58@IND93Jun 8IND79@CHI52
IND79@CHI52Jul 27IND93@CHI78today
IND93@CHI78todayAug 10CHI70@IND92
CHI70@IND92Sep 5CHI77@IND97
CHI77@IND97Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ CHI
Biggest swing: 12pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:03
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 30 min30+ point game
35 PTS · 2 REB · 6 AST
CHIR. Banham
GGame leader · 36 min
26 PTS · 1 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
IND beat CHI 93-78. K. Mitchell led the way with 35 points and 6 assists. IND outscored the other side 26-13 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 16 REB · 19 AST
GS 58
Bench(4)
29 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST
GS 29
CHIstarters 95% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 29 REB · 13 AST
GS 50
Bench(3)
4 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
GS 1
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND1st Quarter · 3:02 · 17-11
+11pp→ 76% WP
Makayla Timpson · makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Aliyah Boston assists)
IND3rd Quarter · 5:03 · 59-55
+12pp→ 74% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes 24-foot three pointer (Makayla Timpson assists)
IND3rd Quarter · 2:55 · 63-55
+6pp→ 90% WP
Rachel Banham · bad pass (Makayla Timpson steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 26 | 25 | 24 | 18 | 93 |
| CHI | 13 | 26 | 22 | 17 | 78 |
Period scoring
IND won 3 · CHI won 1
26
13
Q1
Mitchell 13
Cardoso 4
25
26
Q2
McDonald 8
Banham 11
24
22
Q3
Mitchell 15
Banham 7
18
17
Q4
Boston 6
Allen 8
IND
CHI
Shooting comparison
IND
CHI
47%
33-70
FG
43%
28-65
38%
11-29
3PT
40%
10-25
100%
16-16
FT
86%
12-14
Play-by-play · 374 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·9.0
Sydney Colson defensive rebound
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·11.1
Rachel Banham misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·23.0
Kamilla Cardoso defensive rebound
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·25.0
Makayla Timpson misses driving floating jump shot
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·41.0
Lexie Hull enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·41.0
Chloe Bibby enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·41.0
Fever timeout
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·42.1
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·42.1
Rebecca Allen misses 27-foot three point jumper
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·45.0
Elizabeth Williams offensive rebound
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·47.1
Kia Nurse misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·1:02
Elizabeth Williams defensive rebound
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·1:07
Sydney Colson misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·1:23
Sydney Colson defensive rebound
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·1:25
Rebecca Allen misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·1:39
Makayla Timpson makes driving layup (Sydney Colson assists)
·
IND 93·CHI 78
- Q4·1:45
Rachel Banham lost ball turnover (Kelsey Mitchell steals)
·
IND 91·CHI 78
- Q4·1:52
Elizabeth Williams defensive rebound
IND 91·CHI 78
- Q4·1:57
Kelsey Mitchell misses 11-foot step back jumpshot
IND 91·CHI 78
- Q4·2:02
Elizabeth Williams personal foul
IND 91·CHI 78
- Q4·2:22
Rebecca Allen out of bounds lost ball turnover
IND 91·CHI 78
- Q4·2:31
Elizabeth Williams defensive rebound
IND 91·CHI 78
- Q4·2:33
Sophie Cunningham misses 22-foot three point jumper
IND 91·CHI 78
- Q4·2:34
Makayla Timpson offensive rebound
IND 91·CHI 78
- Q4·2:38
Aliyah Boston misses 7-foot two point shot
IND 91·CHI 78
- Q4·2:56
Fever defensive team rebound
IND 91·CHI 78
- Q4·2:56
Rebecca Allen misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 91·CHI 78
- Q4·3:17
Sky Full timeout
IND 91·CHI 78
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
33-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-65
47
FG %
43
11-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-25
16-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-14
26
Assists
17
11
Turnovers
20
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.0± 1.0low
Steals
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Jacy SheldonCHI1.1± 2.0low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
CHI
45.4%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.1%
32.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
25.9%
92.9
PPG
◀
85.4
82.8
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.3
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶11.0